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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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The GFS model soundings keep us safe from tainting for now, but it could be a concern if  this thing comes too far north. For now we are in good shape though ;).

 

Personally after the winter of fringe jobs, I'd almost rather be playing with the devil in one of these systems.  I do hope the ECM comes in a bit cooler though for our SNH/SME friends.

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Personally after the winter of fringe jobs, I'd almost rather be playing with the devil in one of these systems.  I do hope the ECM comes in a bit cooler though for our SNH/SME friends.

 

I agree. Waiting on the Euro run now.

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Personally after the winter of fringe jobs, I'd almost rather be playing with the devil in one of these systems. I do hope the ECM comes in a bit cooler though for our SNH/SME friends.

Don't cry for me Argentina. We've done well this winter. It's NNE's time to shine.

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Don't cry for me Argentina. We've done well this winter. It's NNE's time to shine.

 

 

You'll still get your snow anyway in this...even if there's a lot of taint in the middle. Even the amped solutions sting you with a few hours of powder in the closing hours.

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Don't cry for me Argentina. We've done well this winter. It's NNE's time to shine.

 

This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol.  Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm.

 

Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with.

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This is bumping up against my personal March 15th cutoff date for wanting big snow. Let this one dump and then we can have a nice slow melt into April. That way I can still get in some good riding and not be too late with the start of golf season.

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Is that a 24" bullseye over Addison County???  wow.  that's some forecast.

 

Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone)

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Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone)

jeebus.  I agree with you that it is likely overdone, but it sure sets one's heart a flutter.

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This is always the problem up here (first world problems), is that once we look to do really well, it takes more and more folks out of the game until it ends up a bunch of Vermonters talking to themselves about the storm, lol.  Somehow I hope we get nailed but others do too, because half the fun of the forum is having a bunch of folks posting about a storm, rather than having like 30 minutes between posts in a 10-16 inch snowstorm.

 

Its sort of like you want to have the brand new soccer ball as a kid, but you need some folks to kick it around with.

 

Its because I am heading north this week ;)  I brought it to Stowe last year with a great week of upslope conditions. This year I am bring the snow guns to Gunstock :snowing::snowman:

I have friends heading your way for the Eastern Champ races this weekend. Hope to return next season for a vaca week or some early TOS in December. I miss my Mulligatawny and scotch tour at pickwick.

 

As always, enjoy your pics through the season!

 

Have fun in the pow pow it should be stellar, cold as heck, but stellar.

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Looks like I can scrap the 4-8" :) However there is still a shadowing concern if winds are too easterly on the front end. Either way we will get a good show on the back side.

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Awesome discussion by Taber... great stuff. 

 

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WL IMPACT THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY WEDS INTO THURS WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE...

WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR THE DACKS...CPV...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SYSTEM OF INTEREST NOW ACRS THE NW CONUS WITH
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY STILL LOCATED ACRS NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA.
THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY WL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY 12Z WEDS...WITH SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPING ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY.
FULL LATITUDE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOMING CLOSED OFF ACRS EASTERN NY INTO
SNE. THE COMBINATION OF A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE AND POTENT S/W
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROF...WL RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF SYSTEM. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW RRQ OF 120 JET LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN
CANADA WHILE LFQ OF SUB-TROPICAL JET IS STREAKING ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS DUAL STRUCTURE
WL PROMOTE DEEP LAYER LIFT AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NEAR PITTSBURGH PA TO CAPE COD. THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS OCCURRING WL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THE
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL/QPF ACRS OUR CWA...IF IT OCCURS TO OUR
EAST...MUCH LESS IMPACTS. THE UKMET/GEM STILL HINT AT THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER/DEEPER.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOW THIS PHASING OCCURRING FASTER
AND DEEPER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER IMPACTS
ACRS OUR CWA. THIS PLACES OUR CWA IN THE FAVORABLE FRONT SIDE WAA
LIFT/MOISTURE ON WEDS AND BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE PRECIP ON
THURSDAY. ALSO...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK IN SFC LOW
...WHICH DOES PLACE PTYPE AN ISSUE ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES VERY CLOSE TO A
MIX...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS WITH THE 540 LINE INTO CENTRAL VT.
GFS SOUNDING AT VSF SHOWS 825MB TEMP AROUND 3C...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MIX WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDS EVENING. WL MENTION SOME
MIX ACRS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZNS AND IN WSW TEXT PRODUCT.

USING A BLEND BTWN THE ECMWF/GFS AND NAM SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF WAA
FGEN FORCING DEVELOPING BTWN 12Z-15Z WEDS...WITH STRONGEST 850 TO
700MB FORCING/UVVS ON 1ST PART OF THE SYSTEM OCCURRING ON WEDS
AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWS SURGING ABOVE 0.50"
OR 150% OF NORMAL AND STRONG DYNAMICS...THINKING SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON WEDS
EVENING. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AMOUNT OF SHADOWING/IMPACTS OF TRRN
ASSOCIATED WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 35 TO 45 KNOTS ON WEDS.
THINKING TRRN IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL AS DIRECTION IS MORE
NORTHERLY...THEN EAST...BUT WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR SOME
SHADOWING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES. INITIAL WAA LIFT/MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMAL PROFILES WL RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS BTWN 10 AND
14 TO 1...WITH TOTAL QPF BTWN 0.20 AND 0.50 ACRS OUR
CWA...RESULTING IN A GENERAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 10" POSSIBLE ON THE SE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE GREEN
MTNS FROM KILLINGTON TO STOWE AND EASTERN DACKS.

THE 2ND PART IMPACTS OUR REGION LATE WEDS NIGHT INTO MOST OF
THURSDAY NOW...WITH VERY FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION/UPSLOPE FLW.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW GOOD RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH...STRONG
850 TO 700MB FGEN ASSOCIATED WITH SECONDARY WARM AIR CONVEYOR ALOFT
AND DEVELOPING LLVL CAA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED...WL RESULT IN A
SLOWER SHIFT EASTWARD AND PROLONGED UPSLOPE FLW. ADDITIONAL BACKSIDE
QPF/UPSLOPE FLW QPF WL RANGE FROM 0.25" SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TO
0.50 TO 0.75"...WESTERN SLOPES/DACKS/CPV/NEK. AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEVELOP...STRONG LLVL CAA WL OCCUR AND OUR SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED
WITH BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZN WL JUMP BTWN 20 AND 30 TO 1. THE QPF
COMBINED WITH HIGH FLUFF FACTOR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
INCHES SLV/LWR CT RIVER VALLEY...6 TO 12 INCHES
DACKS/NEK/CPV...AND 10 TO 16 INCHES WESTERN SLOPES. SO ADDING BOTH
PARTS TOGETHER RESULTS IN A WIDESPREAD 10 TO 20 INCH EVENT WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS BY
LATE THURSDAY. WATCH CONTS FOR UNCERTAINTY ACRS THE SLV...THINKING
A GENERAL 6 TO 12 POSSIBLE.

AS 975MB LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDS NIGHT/THURSDAY
...THE PRES GRADIENT WL TIGHTEN ACRS OUR CWA...WITH VERY
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOWING
925MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...LATE WEDS INTO THURS...WITH WELL
ALIGNED FLW ACRS THE SLV/CPV...DUE TO TRRN. THIS WL PRODUCE SFC
WIND GUSTS BTWN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...ALONG WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN
THE OPEN/EXPOSED AREAS. THESE NORTH WINDS WL ALSO QUICKLY ADVECT
BITTERLY COLD TEMPS INTO OUR REGION LATE WEDS INTO THURS WITH
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -20 AND -24C. WL TREND TWD THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE ON THURS WITH HIGHS NEAR ZERO MTNS TO SINGLES/TEENS
WARMER VALLEYS.

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Actually if you look closely there is one contour in there above 24" after the colors run out for Addison. That would be 27" verbatim (But this is likely overdone)

 

Missed the added contours - there's two of them in the area east of Moosehead Lake.  30" for Baxter? 

Updated map from GYX has a wide band of 14-18" and their WS watch includes the possibility of 12-18" for the foothills.  That would be very nice, though we'll see how things change between now and showtime.

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Well I think its awesome winter is sticking around. You know its been years since a nice winter like this. I am happy we picked up 1" today, 2-4" tonight and like 12-15" Wednesday-Thursday for Lyndonville Vermont. I love this! 

 

Hearing Jim Cantore maybe deploying somewhere up here for the heart of this big storm. Ski country (aka us Inland NNE) will love this! 

 

Forecasting tomorrow for a 48hr forecast for VTrans tomorrow. 

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Missed the added contours - there's two of them in the area east of Moosehead Lake.  30" for Baxter? 

Updated map from GYX has a wide band of 14-18" and their WS watch includes the possibility of 12-18" for the foothills.  That would be very nice, though we'll see how things change between now and showtime.

 

 

This is CAR forecast map below. I don't see what you are talking about. Greenville is the southern end of Moosehead and looking East there isn't anything there that was missed.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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I will revise my call to 10-15" for BTV. I am not quite ready to go 14-18" because of my shadowing concerns.

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I just want to make double digits. If I end up with 10" I will be quite pleased :).

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This is CAR forecast map below. I don't see what you are talking about. Greenville is the southern end of Moosehead and looking East there isn't anything there that was missed.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

Check out the Euro map posted by eyewall a few hours ago.  Obviously CAR isn't buying that map verbatim; it's a superweenie forecast.

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I looked at the BTV AFD and it mentioned the UKMET possibly being east...I hadn't looked at that model but it made a sizeable jump between the 00z and 12z run:

 

Here was last night's 00z run:

 

 

Here's today's 12z run, huge hit up across the north country...

 

 

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Good thing to all Northeast Kingdom Vermont folks. We are not going to shadow from the whites at all. South winds early (upslope), main storm underway gives us NE. SWEET!

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Good thing to all Northeast Kingdom Vermont folks. We are not going to shadow from the whites at all. South winds early (upslope), main storm underway gives us NE. SWEET!

What are your thoughts for this area?

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What are your thoughts for this area?

 

Passumpsic Valley 11-13"

Just up and out of the valley 12-15"

 

First 2-5" will be wet snow becoming a fluffy snow. 

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This would be a fun blitz on the GFS... 3-hour's and 0.5" QPF in a wind-blown snow situation.

 

Wednesday evening could get pretty rough out there.

 

f57.gif

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