michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Let's just remember that this is one model. Everyone seems to be taking it as gospel. i know for a minute Im thinking...wait a minute...we are praising the always-bashed NAM for being the furthest NW of any model, per usual, and speaking of it as if its set in stone? Not a fan of the new NAm..its still great for here...but just cutting it WAYYY too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z RGEM came NW again. 998mb SLP in NW. OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Let's just remember that this is one model. Everyone seems to be taking it as gospel. One model with an absolutely horrendous track record all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 yes plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm punting this storm. Looks like it will be a huge let down for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 One model with an absolutely horrendous track record all winter. Not to mention the mesoscale models are great at over strengthening systems like this, underdoing an extremely abnormal cold air mass and overdoing warm air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The latest SREF plumes are the best yet at DTW..mean being 9.8" but with a wide range of 2.3" to 17.1". The last run the mean was 8.8", but the range was more clustered at 5.0" to 13.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm punting this storm. Looks like it will be a huge let down for Toronto. It's down to the GFS and Euro. 75% chance of it moving towards the RGEM and NAM. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 LAF still looks in pretty good shape.. But down here near IND, precip issues quickly becoming an issue.. We'll be in the same boat soon. Matter of fact I expect some rain at this point. Trend is undeniable. But...if we can stay all frozen, it may be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 i know for a minute Im thinking...wait a minute...we are praising the always-bashed NAM for being the furthest NW of any model, per usual, and speaking of it as if its set in stone? Not a fan of the new NAm..its still great for here...but just cutting it WAYYY too close for comfort. Who is we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We'll be in the same boat soon. Matter of fact I expect some rain at this point. Trend is undeniable. But...if we can stay all frozen, it may be pretty good. IDK, not seeing rain in the cards for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 IDK, not seeing rain in the cards for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I'm finally conceding...yea I know well overdue but I'm a 'go down with the bun' kinda weenie. congrats to you guys... fckers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What does LOT do if GFS and Euro hold serve?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 BTW, 12z RGEM tracks it just to the southeast of LAF. But somehow we stay all snow, barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 close.png Wow ... one more run and this baby is Bo's ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Wow ... one more run and this baby is Bo's ... I would think with the arctic front slamming south there is only so far NW this thing can go. Right now the NAM/RGEM would be awesome here but another jolt west and its major YIKES. You are the one who says to get the best snow you have to smell the rain...but too nerve-wracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 BTW, 12z RGEM tracks it just to the southeast of LAF. But somehow we stay all snow, barely. Not much wiggle room left around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not much wiggle room left around here.. Indeed. But that's still pretty damn good for us...if it holds. Please let it hold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Had a lot to catch up on this morning. Already snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Latest Canadian is showing rain for Toronto. I expect the GFS and Euro to cave with their runs today. What a turnaround! Most in the Toronto area are already sick of winter, so they'll likely be happy with this outcome. I expect the incoming cold air to be greatly moderated in my region now that there will not be a fresh snow cover for it to move across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The first flakes are flying here... 25 to 30 dbz returns off to the west. Where will the band get hung up? http://ustre.am/16Txc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Indeed. But that's still pretty damn good for us...if it holds. Please let it hold... Cool your jets let's wait and see what the GFS and Euro have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 gfs really hits that lake enhancement hard by hr 18 .25+ for the Chicago crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z GFS is coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Had a lot to catch up on this morning. Already snowing here. Whats your snow depth btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 hr 24 low over eastern Arkansas steady snow up to Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z GFS is coming NW. Not NAM/RGEM NW, but another bump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Latest Canadian is showing rain for Toronto. I expect the GFS and Euro to cave with their runs today. What a turnaround! Most in the Toronto area are already sick of winter, so they'll likely be happy with this outcome. I expect the incoming cold air to be greatly moderated in my region now that there will not be a fresh snow cover for it to move across. Actually the 12z RGEM shows a couple of inches of wet snow before it changes to rain around 8-9 pm Sunday. But yeah, the chances of an all-snow event is almost down to zero, pending a miracle from the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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