96blizz Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think what the non pros need answered is: What would cause the great look aloft to NOT translate to the surface? This should help many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Come on we all knew the last two runs was just the nam doing what the nam does. This is much more in line with the other guidance. Now we can focus on the rgem and short term models Yes but NAM still left it wide open for much more. That little inverted trough has to be watched. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p36&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Almost a little inverted trough in southern jersey. They get close to an inch of QPF. Still .5 + for everyone else. We know how dependable inverted troughs are around THESE parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Technically. You could tell he was only looking at the surface though. The look aloft argued for a MECS there. And we will likely get it if these trends continue. Oh look, all the negative nellies coming out now. Lol. First off I'm not a negative poster.. I constantly contradict ace with his negative post...I'm actually quit the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Technically. You could tell he was only looking at the surface though. The look aloft argued for a MECS there. And we will likely get it if these trends continue. Oh look, all the negative nellies coming out now. Lol. One guarantee in this forum that NEVER fails is members that dont know how to analyze a pattern live and die by one model run. At H5 this screames big hit and i think that it will trend that way, its literaly on small step from being just that with surface reflection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Surface much more realistic this run. High 3-4 mb lower over Quebec and low near benchmark also few mb higher. Most NWS offices in Northeast are happy this run lines up pretty well with amounts already forecasted. Lingering trough hinted at by NAM in S.Jersey will need to be watched in further runs. Please explain how the surface this run was more realistic. Seems mostly everyone else disagrees, so would be interested in hearing your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I still don't get how H5 is like "OMG big one coming!!!" and then surface is "Meh, dime a dozen event"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Almost a little inverted trough in southern jersey. They get close to an inch of QPF. Still .5 + for everyone else. Agree. It's starting to fall in line with the other guidance. 09 srefs has .75- close to an inch of qpf. Surface temps in the teens will translate to a solid 5-8 inches area wide with 10 + in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry should have clarified... As compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 anyhone have a NAM precip map? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I noticed some NAM runs seem to have a lower 2m temp. than at 850mb., and a THK that does not warrant the sub-zero 2m predictions. Can a met explain this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This run reverted back to the old idea of a stronger southern vort pulling the development further east. But it seems to be at odds with the SREFS which don't focus on this feature. So will know which idea is correct when we see the GFS and RGEM soon. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 One guarantee in this forum that NEVER fails is members that dont know how to analyze a pattern live and die by one model run. At H5 this screames big hit and i think that it will trend that way, its literaly on small step from being just that with surface reflection It started trending that way yesterday, and looks to me like it continues to do so. Looks sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's .5+ for all. And .75+ in southern nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This run reverted back to the old idea of a stronger southern vort pulling the development further east. But it seems to be at odds with the SREFS which don't focus on this feature. So will know which idea is correct when we see the GFS and RGEM soon. Yep, but at the same time odds at a moderate snowfall for the area continue to gain steam. .around . 50 of QPF is easily 5-8 inches with the higher ratios. What's interesting to me is there is still a possibility for more. Hopefully the GFS keeps it interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ALLSNOW-It's .5+ for all. And .75+ in southern nj whats Monmouth? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 anyhone have a NAM precip map? Rossi Bottom right panel has total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What are the ratios we are looking at for this storm with the current models? 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 All I meant, and said so even when the crazy NAM runs came out....is that I did NOT feel that they were realistic (read back on my posts last night). This one, I DO feel is realistic. It's in line with other guidance which would simply not lead to a major major snowfall. Significant, yes....but not the 10-15 the NAM painted out. As I said, I'd want support from GFS or euro. It has had neither Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yep, but at the same time odds at a moderate snowfall for the area continue to gain steam. .around . 50 of QPF is easily 5-8 inches with the higher ratios. What's interesting to me is there is still a possibility for more. Hopefully the GFS keeps it interesting You can see how the SREF mean doesn't jump the center so far east like the NAM. It could just be the NAM showing too much feedback over the Gulf Stream. But the other models will settle the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The high res NAM agrees with what one should see with a 500 MB presentation like that . usually I would scale this back with the high ratios this looks plausible to me . And Long Island don't worry , prob just the ALGO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ALLSNOW-It's .5+ for all. And .75+ in southern nj whats Monmouth? Thanks Total NAM precip. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p36&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You can see how the SREF mean doesn't jump the center so far east like the NAM. It could just be the NAM showing too much feedback over the Gulf Stream. But the other models will settle the issue. That's just the thing; the other models have been showing exactly what the NAM has now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 ALLSNOW-It's .5+ for all. And .75+ in southern nj whats Monmouth? ThanksMonmouth is .5+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREF plumes look amazing for ISP. Mean is 13.3". Highest member is 29.24", lowest is 1.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Total NAM precip.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_p36.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p36&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 What's with the donut hole in CT... Doesn't seem right to me. I would almost bet on it that it doesn't happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 SREF plumes look amazing for ISP. Mean is 13.3". Highest member is 29.24", lowest is 1.8" What were the plumes for HPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What's with the donut hole in CT... Doesn't seem right to me. I would almost bet on it that it doesn't happen like that. That area seems to be in between where the original over running is and the possible inverted trough in southern jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What were the plumes for HPN? Mean is 12.54" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The high res NAM agrees with what one should see with a 500 MB presentation like that . usually I would scale this back with the high ratios this looks plausible to me . And Long Island don't worry , prob just the ALGO Even if you cut them in half it's still a 4-6 inch snowfall area wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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