toxictwister00 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think that might be an error on the website. Their zone forecasts still have the watch. Yeah, you're right. I guess when they issued a Wind Advisory it was overlapped on top of the WSW. Sorry for any confusion I may have caused. Unlikely. Seriously, every storm trends NW...except when that would result in central NC getting more than token snow, and then that trend fails. What kind of luck is this? You don't happen to be a shoe salesman do you? They have the worst luck in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Per Robert (wxsouth) on twitter: "Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South." It sounds like he is going to go WAY out on a limb today! I think all of us SE weenies should go out there and support him! I really hope he is correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 You know this is a complex storm unfolding when even Robert is having a hard time figuring out how much will fall. To say the models have what will happen ironed you right now is asking a lot. Fully expect a good bit of waffling around today and the players get sampled more and more. Fun to watch either way, hope someone gets buried in snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think that might be an error on the website. Their zone forecasts still have the watch. They are also still showing on the EMWIN stream too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Per Robert (wxsouth) on twitter: "Water Vapor tells truth. Main upper low Baja is sending vorts into break-off upper low in Arizona. Will expand precip Tues in South." It sounds like he is going to go WAY out on a limb today! I think all of us SE weenies should go out there and support him! I really hope he is correct! Well, he is out there alone, it looks like. Nobody else seems to be giving any real credibility to the SW energy-getting-ejected-and-absorbed theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Well, he is out there alone, it looks like. Nobody else seems to be giving any real credibility to the SW energy-getting-ejected-and-absorbed theory. If he goes all in and is correct, we should put up a statue! What a win that would be for him. Go bold or go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 One must always temper excitement until inside 48 hrs in the south. But now, let the wish casting start... Lol Sent from my iPhone We were inside 36 hours before it was supposed to start snowing here and the models looked great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Midol anyone? Do they make Midol PM? I need sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Can't even get the models to hold course within 36 hours now if they show a big hit. Now, if it showed all rain, of course that would stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think brick crashed the other board with weenie ism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If he goes all in and is correct, we should put up a statue! What a win that would be for him. Go bold or go home! Yep. I'm in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah, WxSouth is still being very bullish, saying none of the models are handling this right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Do they make Midol PM? I need sleep! It might be 9 in the morning but its 5 oclock somewhere. Go to the store buy a suitcase drink about 12 and call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF looks good for central NC, too. Showing .50 and with the ratios I bet that would be at least 6 inches of snow. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Local stations modeling in Charleston saying that there will be a decent amount of snow here. Channel 5 says 1-3 inches in addition to ice, 2 the same with a possibility of 1/4-3/4 inch of ice in the coastal area, 2-4 for the inland part of the Lowcountry with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have seen Robert go all in against everyone else in the past and come out right.... I trust him a lot more than any model that is for sure. Would be nice to have Brad and Matt jump on board, maybe we will see things improve today so we can get some more enthusiasm out of them. Don't blame them for their stance now cause I'm in their camp... maybe it's the weenie in me routing for Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have seen Robert go all in against everyone else in the past and come out right.... I trust him a lot more than any model that is for sure. Would be nice to have Brad and Matt jump on board, maybe we will see things improve today so we can get some more enthusiasm out of them. Don't blame them for their stance now cause I'm in their camp... maybe it's the weenie in me routing for Robert You know Brad wants to jump on board, he's probably a bigger winter weather weenie than Brick and Ji combined! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I have seen Robert go all in against everyone else in the past and come out right.... I trust him a lot more than any model that is for sure. Would be nice to have Brad and Matt jump on board, maybe we will see things improve today so we can get some more enthusiasm out of them. Don't blame them for their stance now cause I'm in their camp... maybe it's the weenie in me routing for Robert It seems that he is very confident in the southern energy moving east and overrunning much of the SE with gulf moisture snow. Hard to say "throw out the models" as he's kind of doing, but man I hope he's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Whoa...my head is spinning from more snow to less snow to west to east ...I don't know what to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Whoa...my head is spinning from more snow to less snow to west to east ...I don't know what to believe As is quite typical of every SE snowstorm. We don't know for certain what will happen until after it's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Great post.. So true. As is quite typical of every SE snowstorm. We don't know for certain what will happen until after it's happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It seems that he is very confident in the southern energy moving east and overrunning much of the SE with gulf moisture snow. Hard to say "throw out the models" as he's kind of doing, but man I hope he's right. He does. You would think if he's going to turn out right, though, the models would start showing it. We're in a timeframe where the Nam should be pretty good. And it doesn't show that southern system doing much to help us yet. At least it's quite a bit wetter than 6z. Hopefully, that's the start of a better trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 SREF looks good for central NC, too. Showing .50 and with the ratios I bet that would be at least 6 inches of snow. I'd take that. Brick, you're looking good man. Wish this thing would pull west and give you all rain so I could get some snow, but we'll see how that goes At least the Heels kept the streak alive against Clemson, much needed win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 He does. You would think if he's going to turn out right, though, the models would start showing it. We're in a timeframe where the Nam should be pretty good. And it doesn't show that southern system doing much to help us yet. At least it's quite a bit wetter than 6z. Hopefully, that's the start of a better trend. Yep, he even hinted that he thought the models may not pick up the correct pattern at 12Z today; which I agree should be shown by now on the models. Is the water vapor loop showing something clearly that the models are not? You'd think if they were Allan, and Matthew, and others would be able to identify. I'd like some other Met's to chime in on Robert's synoptic theory a bit to make me feel better....or help me move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 He does. You would think if he's going to turn out right, though, the models would start showing it. We're in a timeframe where the Nam should be pretty good. And it doesn't show that southern system doing much to help us yet. At least it's quite a bit wetter than 6z. Hopefully, that's the start of a better trend. In his defense the models are kind of lining up with what he said. The NAM weakened that southern energy and kept the vort in AZ together longer than previous runs which is what he said should happen but that models would still downplay it due to the physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep, he even hinted that he thought the models may not pick up the correct pattern at 12Z today; which I agree should be shown by now on the models. Is the water vapor loop showing something clearly that the models are not? You'd think if they were Allan, and Matthew, and others would be able to identify. I'd like some other Met's to chime in on Robert's synoptic theory a bit to make me feel better....or help me move on. Remember it's just a theory. Matt did chime in on and said it was interesting. Robert gets to be a bit bolder with his calls since he is not in the media. Allan also hinted at it that if the southern wave was 6 hours faster we would have a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just when I start packing my bags and heading for the cliffs, the NAM ropes me back in, haha. That's the best NAM run for MBY yet. Hell, I think it's the first to show any precipitation at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 He does. You would think if he's going to turn out right, though, the models would start showing it. We're in a timeframe where the Nam should be pretty good. And it doesn't show that southern system doing much to help us yet. At least it's quite a bit wetter than 6z. Hopefully, that's the start of a better trend. You know though, there's a reason I refer to it as the Never Again Man... I've been burned more times than not by the NAM *DURING* the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep, he even hinted that he thought the models may not pick up the correct pattern at 12Z today; which I agree should be shown by now on the models. Is the water vapor loop showing something clearly that the models are not? You'd think if they were Allan, and Matthew, and others would be able to identify. I'd like some other Met's to chime in on Robert's synoptic theory a bit to make me feel better....or help me move on. The wave is moving along on the vapor loop pretty well. I guess we'll just have to continue to wait and see if things fall in line. In his defense the models are kind of lining up with what he said. The NAM weakened that southern energy and kept the vort in AZ together longer than previous runs which is what he said should happen but that models would still downplay it due to the physics. Yeah, the Nam looked better for sure, but it would be nice to see it really pick that thing up and bring it east. You know though, there's a reason I refer to it as the Never Again Man... I've been burned more times than not by the NAM *DURING* the actual event. I agree. It seems like the QPF on the NAM is almost always overdone. That's why I'd like to be in the 1" QPF stripe. If you divide by 4, you still get almost a warning criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 In his defense the models are kind of lining up with what he said. The NAM weakened that southern energy and kept the vort in AZ together longer than previous runs which is what he said should happen but that models would still downplay it due to the physics. Thanks. Hopefully the NS will pick up the southern energy and it'll be game on as he says... Just when I start packing my bags and heading for the cliffs, the NAM ropes me back in, haha. That's the best NAM run for MBY yet. Hell, I think it's the first to show any precipitation at all here. Yeah the simulated radar look very good for several hours over CLT too.....good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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