Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On another note, at what point do we start worrying about convection in the Gulf interrupting our moisture transport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Quick question that I figured I would put in banter. There's been talk of some overrunning before the storm is forecasted to actually start a la the Christmas storm. IIRC this extended from about CLT to GSO and west on the afternoon of the 25th. (I was sitting in Chapel Hill; we got fringed by both that and the coastal spinning up. ) Was that forecasted well by the models leading up to the event or did significant precip extend further west than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 East's in-house model. Only 2 inches for Raleigh. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 East's first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 3m Should see some snow flakes in the Triangle area by mid-late afternoon Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 East's in-house model. Only 2 inches for Raleigh. Ugh. I'm sorry. I'll trade you mine for yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 On another note, at what point do we start worrying about convection in the Gulf interrupting our moisture transport? Ha, always. I tell you what though. It's nice talking about qpf and NOT having to deal with whether or not it's going to be snow. If we pull away with 2 nice and cold, cover everything inches, I'll be happy. Hoping for more, but it's nice just not having to worry about BL issues/surface temps, WAA, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's a typical pre-winter storm Carolina day. Torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 badtrends is quickly becoming the most annoying poster of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm sorry. I'll trade you mine for yours. Yes, most definitely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Ha, always. I tell you what though. It's nice talking about qpf and NOT having to deal with whether or not it's going to be snow. If we pull away with 2 nice and cold, cover everything inches, I'll be happy. Hoping for more, but it's nice just not having to worry about BL issues/surface temps, WAA, etc. THIS is true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 badtrends is quickly becoming the most annoying poster of the day. Trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's pretty bizarre when folks in the foothills need to consider buying a vacation home around the Albemarle Sound in order to get some good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really, really need a good GFS run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Some of this morning's modelling has me a little optimistic again for at least a little something. We'll see what the GFS shows in a few minutes. The RGEM just fringed me for ~1", so I'll have to bank on a last-minute small NW correction. The SREF looks pretty decent as it stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just read in the discussion thread that Fayetteville is looking at 0.94" QPF according to the SREF, all snow. This equates to what, roughly 9"? And are the ratios going to be higher than 10:1? I'm not sure where to find the map he posted about so meh. I would be so ecstatic about 9". Hell give me 4" and I'm happy lol. We have a Biology test at 5:30PM tomorrow - thinking that might have to get rescheduled until Thursday night! Also kind of surprised I haven't seen any trucks laying down any brine or anything yet. Maybe later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 GFS looks a good bit further west than it's 6z run out to 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We really, really need a good GFS run here. It'll set the tone I think with forecasters in the area. If it's a good hit, I think we start to see forecasts bump up the totals. If not....we wait on what Robert says!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It'll set the tone I think with forecasters in the area. If it's a good hit, I think we start to see forecasts bump up the totals. If not....we wait on what Robert says!! Yep, I agree. I want to hear the words: BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yep, I agree. I want to hear the words: BOOM! He just all but says it for you guys down east in the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Robert has a detailed and informative post in the storm thread! Says most of Carolina's will see decent snow, models can't handle the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 He just all but says it for you guys down east in the storm thread. Just got done reading it. Great read and sounds really good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow! What a post by Robert. So glad to hear his thoughts here. I apparently have a decent chance at some snow, but you folks out east could get absolutely buried. Kinda what we've thought all along, but the western edge of this overrunning could get more interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just got done reading it. Great read and sounds really good! Yep, it does. About makes me want to take vacation time and come home early. Hmm, State does play FSU at home Wednesday and tickets will be available.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I know that write up from Robert was excellent. Made me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Sure hope his thoughts come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 And the GFS fringes me, too. This is going to be close on the NW side. Hopefully, Robert's forecast with regards to the overturning precipitation verifies; then, I should do okay, hopefully. Good post by him in the main thread, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think the Raleigh area will see at least 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not what I had hoped for out of the GFS. No progress. I don't think it's screwing up that SW energy by hundreds of miles this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Worse than the 6z which was worse than the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Not what I had hoped for out of the GFS. No progress. I don't think it's screwing up that SW energy by hundreds of miles this close in.It looked great for you guys, IMO. I mean, if you're going for all-in for a foot, it might be disappointing, but ~6" is nothing to sneeze at.The trends are iffy, though. Got to love how a the other modelling is now shifting west while the GFS shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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