SnowMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 this is such a tantalizing look Since we are in the dead zone, can you explain what looks good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 W forky posting so much postive stuff, i keep pinching myself 0z is big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'll take Burbank for now. Still may be a but low still in areas. What a joke by channel 5. That map is completely different from yesterday. That's why you don't issue a map so early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Say what? First of all, little known fact that the GFS analysis resolution is actually HIGHER than the ECMWF analysis resolution (the analysis increment is done on a grid roughly 2x the ECMWF grid I think). This is because 4DVAR is so much more expensive than the Hybrid 3D EnVar system that is used in the GFS/GDAS. What exactly did you read and what are you referring to? The GDAS system also has many noise/smoothing constraints within it, including an incremental normal mode initialization technique. I'm happy to pass you a reference if you're interested. Now, given that the NCEP system is still 3D, there are issues, such as treating the observations at their correct time, extracting tendency information from the observations etc. NCEP is working aggressively to implement a 4D variant for the GDAS....not the uber expensive 4DVar that requires the tangent-linear and adjoint models, iteratively as part of its solver, but instead an extension to the current operational hybrid called 4D EnVar. Preliminary results are extremely encouraging. Lastly, in terms of the impact experiments you cite, they aren't particularly meaningful. Data assimilation is performed incrementally, so by attempting to drop the ECMWF analysis into the GFS model, you are actually injecting features from the ECMWF model itself. NCEP has yet to glean anything meaningful and practically relevant about the operational system from such injection experiments. I'm happy to have a discussion on the merits of 4DVAR, EnKF, and hybrid variants, as well as a provide my opinion on the cost-benefit analysis if you are interested in learning more. I was spending time here, http://www.ecmwf.int/research/ifsdocs/CY28r1/Assimilation/index.html, and they provide a fair enough amount of information about the history/evolution of the 3-D variable system, and the subsequent migration to the 4-D system for assimilations at ECMWF, there differences/usefulness. As far as the grid spacing .. the same site lists the resolution table: Spectral Trunc. Gaussian Reduced Lat/Long Application T1279 N640 0.125 Deterministic forecast + data assimilation T639 N320 0.25 EPS up to 10 days T319 N160 0.5 EPS from 10 to 15 days T319 N160 0.5 EPS from 16 to 32 days (in monthly forecast only) T255 N128 0.75 Seasonal forecast system 4 - - 0.25 Deterministic ocean wave - - 0.5 EPS ocean wave T255 N128 0.75 ERA Interim T159 N80 1.125 ERA 40 NCEP site list the "master" GFS as at .5 degrees resolution, as provided here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/ But, T1279 N640 0.125 Deterministic forecast + data assimilation Reads like the Euro has a finer mesh.. when comparing to the .5 GFS, above. I am not sure how to atone for any differences therein, or even if that interpretation is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't see mixing on that map. Enlighten me please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I don't see mixing on that map. Enlighten me please....I was just accounting for the 4-9 on the outer cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I was just accounting for the 4-9 on the outer cape. No that's ack and early bl issues may prevail there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No that's ack and early bl issues may prevail there.Looked like the outer cape was in the 4-9 shading as well but warm surface temps could play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Since we are in the dead zone, can you explain what looks good? He's not talking about what that map is showing at the time, just the overall setup, I love the 500mb setup, if you had no idea a storm was coming and was just shown that map you would probably get pretty hyped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 seriously forky. it's so close to being something much more potent/significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is such a tantalizing look can anyone please explain to me why there is that donut hole on the h7 RH maps (translating down to the surface)??? Looking at the h5, I would think there would be a low getting ready to deepen close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Finallly decided to check in and read up! Hope we get blasted down here on the cape. Looks like we will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 W forky posting so much postive stuff, i keep pinching myself 0z is big This could still become a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is such a tantalizing look yeah that's pretty sweet, ENS are pretty locked in, good overall consensus with the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 can anyone please explain to me why there is that donut hole on the h7 RH maps (translating down to the surface)??? Looking at the h5, I would think there would be a low getting ready to deepen close to the coast 2 different things going on. You have the initial overrunning from I90 through New England...then the developing secondary off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Finallly decided to check in and read up! Hope we get blasted down here on the cape. Looks like we will Man since you retired you have quiet. Welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What are you considering "well"? 8"? 10+" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 this is such a tantalizing look I'm not sure it will ultimately verify like that or not but if we had 100 setups like that, maybe 3 turn out as bad as this one is currently modeled, there is always the unusual case but odds are against it being as bad as its been shown so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice Baroclinic leaf, maybe this is more than I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The tone of this board has changed dramatically from yesterday and I like it haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 2 different things going on. You have the initial overrunning from I90 through New England...then the developing secondary off the SE coast. it just appears so not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm not sure it will ultimately verify like that or not but if we had 100 setups like that, maybe 3 turn out as bad as this one is currently modeled, there is always the unusual case but odds are against it being as bad as its been shown so far. and aside from the last 13 years, this is why KU's are special events.....lots of stuff needs to go right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As the ball drops, so will the pants of weenies all across SNE with the 00z suite....perhaps even a few bare bottoms in the east, as they won't have draws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If the overrunning works out I wonder if we see two jackpot areas - one in N MA/SNH and one South Shore down to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 and aside from the last 13 years, this is why KU's are special events.....lots of stuff needs to go right And at the same time you have 2/83 and 2/8/13 which to me were lousier overall setups than this one in many ways yet blew away what this will probably do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 it just appears so not right You can follow the evolution of it in the RH panels here. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_18z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Man since you retired you have quiet. Welcome back Ty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As the ball drops, so will the pants of weenies all across SNE with the 00z suite....perhaps even a few bare bottoms in the east, as they won't have draws.Lol ball drops as balls drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 21z RPM thru 64 hours... Subsidence much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 21z RPM is more than 20 inches for my backyard and parts of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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