CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah I must've... but I just saw it on the Wunderground maps and I'd lock that ECM run up in a heartbeat. Normally I'm very afraid of that low track as the systems are usually more compact... but most of the models have some huge area of circulation and the precip shield is pretty large. Add in the fact that it shouldn't take much WAA to get it to precipitate with that cold airmass in place, plus the 850/700mb lows seem decently NW, so the surface low track isn't scaring me as much, lol. Not that any of you really care... just speaking aloud. That's why when the GFS came out, I was trying to tell the QPF queens not to worry. With this cold..you'll make the most of the moisture. You won't need a 60kt jet from the SE to get good snows. That deepening trough tot he SW pumps up enough srly flow in the mid levels to generate nice WAA snows before anything substantial comes. And to be honest....as modeled...I don't see this as something only SNE or NNE centric....this will be a large spatial QPF producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Pretty much goes without saying the ensemble mean was south, the Euro's Op run was ridiculous with how long it held onto the primary cutting it over the Apps of PA, chances are if you look at the Op run you'd have a coastal developing around the time the primary was at the SW corner of PA, it attempts however to hold onto it til BGM which just never happens...as a result far SNE and my backyard was shafted, my guess is SNE does alot better than the Op showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 oh i know, just wanted a point of reference to the op. personally i think the euro is a little out of whack as is the gfs. somewhere in between th 2 would be my best quess at this point. Yeah the ECM was a little odd, and pretty tilted with the SFC low staying southeast, but the mid-level lows are pretty far NW... the H85 low tracks from upstate NY to near BOS which is probably why it is keying in on CNE/NNE more. The GFS is a good bit further south with the low/mid level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 That's why when the GFS came out, I was trying to tell the QPF queens not to worry. With this cold..you'll make the most of the moisture. You won't need a 60kt jet from the SE to get good snows. That deepening trough tot he SW pumps up enough srly flow in the mid levels to generate nice WAA snows before anything substantial comes. And to be honest....as modeled...I don't see this as something only SNE or NNE centric....this will be a large spatial QPF producer. That's my feeling as well after the 00z/12z runs... looks like a widespread moderate snowfall (over long duration) and maybe someone gets lucky and picks up something more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I agree Goose. That primary drilling up NW just seems odd. I'm not the MET so I can't give a reason other than looking at these 500mb images for a few years now. Could it have to do with the southern stream energy? I guess the only way I see this "cutting" is if this slows down enough such that the confluene over the NE lifts out a bit. Euro mean being S/ SE of OP typically makes one lean away from this but we've seen the Op sometime lead the way. Right now I'd lean on Ensm Mean of Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Could be a sizeable 8- 12 plus kind of dealnorth of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 north of youNo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Forky is that your mother in the sig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hope this isn't starting to morph into a northern New England deal. Starting to get tired of bare ground and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Nothis run barely gets you to 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Hope this isn't starting to morph into a northern New England deal. Starting to get tired of bare ground and rain You obviously have not read any of the relevant posts. You'll have snow otg, just a question of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 this run barely gets you to 6"Who cares. Meteorology not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Who cares. Meteorology not modelology ok. this is the third consecutive run (op and ensemble mean) to come north and we still have 5 days for it to come further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You obviously have not read any of the relevant posts. You'll have snow otg, just a question of how much. Well yeah lol. But if it's 2 slushy inches that gets washed away while nne gets 18 inches, that's meh lol. It's a storm to track with a chance for snow, should be good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 All major guidance points to a sig snowfall but they are having trouble with the split pv. So it is WAY too early to throw out amounts and snow maps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 ok. this is the third consecutive run (op and ensemble mean) to come north and we still have 5 days for it to come further northit starts snowing Wed nite. With the PV there it can't come north. It's overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 it starts snowing Wed nite. With the PV there it can't come north. It's overrunning cant rule anything out right now...the PV was modeled to be in southern quebec past couple days and each run it isnt as south. also, its now modeled to split....not an easy forecast dood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ok. this is the third consecutive run (op and ensemble mean) to come north and we still have 5 days for it to come further north Minor iterations though. This type of setup tends to jackpot NNE but sne above the NYC area tends to do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 cant rule anything out right now...the PV was modeled to be in southern quebec past couple days and each run it isnt as south. also, its now modeled to split....not an easy forecast dood.I guess I could see south of NYC screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 cant rule anything out right now...the PV was modeled to be in southern quebec past couple days and each run it isnt as south. also, its now modeled to split....not an easy forecast dood. Wtf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 forky thinks the low will end up in NF, we shoudl be concerned with that N. trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I guess I could see south of NYC screwed the good thing is, really cold airmass will be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Wtf! ebonics not an accepted format? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's not about the low...everyone above the boundary will get a lot snow. Overrunning city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ebonics not an accepted format? I thought it might be a fecal reference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 forky thinks the low will end up in NF, we shoudl be concerned with that N. trend.I would heed his concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 You guys are going nuts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's not about the low...everyone above the boundary will get a lot snow. Overrunning city.Yeah I thought he was a met but he's looking at the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's not about the low...everyone above the boundary will get a lot snow. Overrunning city. yea and the boundary shifted like 500 miles north since dec 26. people hoping and wishing it cant adjust imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I would heed his concerns why? I have not seen that as a flag from any met here other than Forky, that does not mean I can see the heaviest axis move NNE, but i will still take 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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