December 29th System

[dendrite]

That's why I think you'll do fine as modeled. Should be intense lift  at that level. Good flake production also helps with cooling.  That will probably help nrn ORH and Berks too,

Yeah...I'm confident that we'll do OK. How did the euro H92 temps look?

[N. OF PIKE]

There looks to be many surprises this pm

How far north into NH does great lift get ...por favor around 7-11pm.

I wonder if n conway valley at 500' could get relative shaft if big lift goes south and reaches ossipee/Madison .

[wx2fish]

Yeah...I don't think they can split us. Here to Hooksett can be worlds apart. I can walk 5 minutes to reach the Belknap line so I don't worry too much about if I'm in a warning or not.

 

Same with where my uncle lives in Andover. Its a completely world than Hooksett.

[N. OF PIKE]

N-C PA has some decent dynamic cooling going on...wide swath of neg 850's from BGM to Bradford pa, with lil swath of near 0c 925 showing up in northern PA

Watching that on meso scale analysis closely

[BostonWX]

The GFS is definitely more precarious, but if we're worried about 900-925mb then that isn't going to help 1kft anyways. I'm thinking maybe a little -RASN to start and then we get a period of 32-33F +SN during the meat of the system. Maybe BostonWx will be right...wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. Your area near CON is more iffy. We're right on the line so there isn't much left to do except let it play out.

 

I think you could paste at 32-33 very easily. I think that keeps you under the 6-8 GYX has, but 4-6 looks good for your backyard. And I disagree with CON reaching 6-8. I see a 2ish inch event there. Any elevation over 800-900 ft I see as more than 6 inches and would probably be 31-32 vs 32-33 below that

[moneypitmike]

I wonder weathertap radar ptype will work. Probably false positives will abound (sn when really rn).

[BostonWX]

I wonder weathertap radar ptype will work. Probably false positives will abound (sn when really rn).

 

Radarscope precip depiction is the best I've come across so far. It's 10 dollars on android though

[forkyfork]

ptype radar is obsolete. use dual pol

[BostonWX]

Am not excited at all for this event in ORH county. It's going to take some serious elevation that far south. Perhaps some of the high points maybe Wachusett and the like hit 1-2.

[N. OF PIKE]

MPM i may pass u on roads today, which way u taking to get to jackson. Im heading for conway , leavin around 2pm

[BostonWX]

ptype radar is obsolete. use dual pol

 

Yup. Their algorithm incorporates dual pol into it so its good for a quick look. I like the CC mode best

[CoastalWx]

Brian they were mild. I commented earlier that is has a few blobs of 0c further west. That's why I said this may be a NAM storm because perhaps the higher resolution may help for once when it comes to dynamics. This is really really tricky. The euro gave me pause, but honestly 0.5F is literally the margin of error here. That is a high risk forecast to be sure. Call me crazy, but I favor a more NAM deal for you.

[N. OF PIKE]

Am not excited at all for this event in ORH county. It's going to take some serious elevation that far south. Perhaps some of the high points maybe Wachusett and the like hit 1-2.

I think its time to just let it play out, there is a thin line between 1-2 and 5 for Wa Wa , we are def not good enuf to figure it out. This has nowcast written all over it.

Hell if 925's dont cool or only do for a narrow strip under banding , accums will look very interesting .

[BostonWX]

I think its time to just let it play out, there is a thin line between 1-2 and 5 for Wa Wa , we are def not good enuf to figure it out. This has nowcast written all over it.

 

I agree for WAWA. But for the populated areas I don't think its too much of a nowcast Gardner, FIT, Leominster...

[Damage In Tolland]

Am not excited at all for this event in ORH county. It's going to take some serious elevation that far south. Perhaps some of the high points maybe Wachusett and the like hit 1-2.

Are you a met?

[BostonWX]

Are you a met?

 

I'll have my bs this spring. So no

[N. OF PIKE]

I agree for WAWA. But for the populated areas I don't think its too much of a nowcast Gardner, FIT, Leominster...

Gardner is Like 1000-1200' and leominster is like 400' so they are not in same boat wrt to BL temps on this one (necessarily) one could be 32 and ripping while other is 34 f slop. But ya nowcast .

Radar is plenty juicy and 12z btv wrf should be rollin out

[wx2fish]

Brian they were mild. I commented earlier that is has a few blobs of 0c further west. That's why I said this may be a NAM storm because perhaps the higher resolution may help for once when it comes to dynamics. This is really really tricky. The euro gave me pause, but honestly 0.5F is literally the margin of error here. That is a high risk forecast to be sure. Call me crazy, but I favor a more NAM deal for you.

 

You can tell the euro trying to show some dynamically cooled pockets across w ma/vt/nh. Its real close across a decent sized area.

[ORH_wxman]

I agree for WAWA. But for the populated areas I don't think its too much of a nowcast Gardner, FIT, Leominster...

 

 

Gardner is 1200-1300 feet...if there's a nowcast for anyone, its them. They are north of WaWa too. FIT/Leominster are relatively low elevation except the west side of FIT which is decent over 800 feet.

 

 

I agree with pickles that we do not have enough skill to say whether the 0.5F margin is going to fall on the snowier side or rainier. I'm personally hedging less at the moment, but I can certainly envision a scenario where it busts snowier.

[N. OF PIKE]

FVE sitting at 1f , look at how pack'd those 850's/925's are near Lake Ontario over to north maine. Ice box

[BostonWX]

Gardner is 1200-1300 feet...if there's a nowcast for anyone, its them. They are north of WaWa too. FIT/Leominster are relatively low elevation except the west side of FIT which is decent over 800 feet.

 

 

I agree with pickles that we do not have enough skill to say whether the 0.5F margin is going to fall on the snowier side or rainier. I'm personally hedging less at the moment, but I can certainly envision a scenario where it busts snowier.

 

Wow didn't realize Gardner was that high. That could be interesting. Jaffrey looks like a gamble too at 1k feet.

[CoastalWx]

You can tell the euro trying to show some dynamically cooled pockets across w ma/vt/nh. Its real close across a decent sized area.

Yeah exactly, seemed like those little blobs of 0C were dynamically driven.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wow didn't realize Gardner was that high. That could be interesting. Jaffrey looks like a gamble too at 1k feet.

I think most of Gardner is a little lower than that

I am not getting 2-5"

0.5"-1.5" is my call

[Baroclinic Zone]

Observations thread started

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42172-december-29th-storm-observations/

[MarkO]

MPM i may pass u on roads today, which way u taking to get to jackson. Im heading for conway , leavin around 2pm

I'll be leaving Lowell around 2 as well, but 93 north for me!

[Logan11]

The temp just spiked  sharply here from 34 to 39 now as the rain shield approaches. Still ovc now.

 

But on a possible plus note the awos at MSV, where it must be precipitating is at 32.

N-C PA has some decent dynamic cooling going on...wide swath of neg 850's from BGM to Bradford pa, with lil swath of near 0c 925 showing up in northern PA

Watching that on meso scale analysis closely

[ORH_wxman]

I think most of Gardner is a little lower than that

I am not getting 2-5"

0.5"-1.5" is my call

 

 

Downtown Gardner is 1100 feet...but there's a lot of 1200+ foot spots in there.

 

Regardless, its an academic point when it comes to the meteorology of this.

[CoastalWx]

This will be a storm that starts as rain and pickles yells "bust" and then 50 posters in NNE start to flip at once lol.

[N. OF PIKE]

This will be a storm that starts as rain and pickles yells "bust" and then 50 posters in NNE start to flip at once lol.

Scott man...lol

Im just gonna be watchin radar AND meso scale analysis 18z nam to make sure those 925's 0c's start showin up around 4-5 or so in nnh and out west of albany as well as Stratton vt area

[CoastalWx]

Scott man...lol

Im just gonna be watchin radar AND meso scale analysis 18z nam to make sure those 925's 0c's start showin up around 4-5 or so in nnh and out west of albany as well as Stratton vt area

I don't envy forecasting this, especially near Dave and MPM. You kind of need to edge conservative there but trust me, this will bust in some shape or form lol. Just a matter of where.