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January Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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So many of these KU s have been wiped out within a week to 10 days since 96 for me . Not saying they aren't what we live for but why not just root on the pattern you are dealt and hope it over preforms. Saves angst

 

 

Your logic is flawless. Which winter was it, 2011 or 2010 that had Long Island Snow depths truly the highest I saw them in 25 years from multiple storms, is that the pattern we want?

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So many of these KU s have been wiped out within a week to 10 days since 96 for me . Not saying they aren't what we live for but why not just root on the pattern you are dealt and hope it over preforms. Saves angst

 

Yeah, and the small details like that brief block that popped up early in the month were only seen about 5 days ahead

of time. Maybe in the long range a piece of that EPO block migrates over closer to the Davis Strait and opens

a window for another 6'+ event.

 

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Your logic is flawless. Which winter was it, 2011 or 2010 that had Long Island Snow depths truly the highest I saw them in 25 years from multiple storms, is that the pattern we want?

Sure. But that's not that the pattern ur in

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Take it to banter dude. These posts are nonsense.

 

most of the posts here are nonsense and belong in the banter thread.

 

Why do you guys think you are above, lets say, the SNE thread (where most actually have weather knowledge)? Do you ever read through their threads? There is CONSTANT banter in between some really stellar analysis...Chill out.

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most of the posts here are nonsense and belong in the banter thread.

Why do you guys think you are above, lets say, the SNE thread (where most actually have weather knowledge)? Do you ever read through their threads? There is CONSTANT banter in between some really stellar analysis...Chill out.

Yeah? Stellar analysis like we have here? "1-3 at best"? "Next"? That kind of stellar analysis?

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eps_z500a_5d_c_noram_49.png

That's a 5 day mean , so if there is snow cover under there, some places spend  multiple nights below zero

DEF from the upper Midwest thru the great lakes into the Ohio valley and interior Northeast .

 

Analogs suggest that NYC dips below 10 degrees again before the month is over. 

 

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Per HM in the mid-atlantic threads, he's liking the 1/28-1/30 period for a 'possible' widespread storm.

 

 

I like that period a lot, too. Earlier today, I posted an article that explains why the upcoming period (including Saturday) is pretty hostile for any snowstorms, but why the period starting next week -- particularly to close the month -- looks much better. 

 

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/01/14/chances-cold-snow-significantly-increasing-close-month/

 

The PNA ridge becomes stronger, cut off, and retrogrades towards Alaska, which tanks the EPO and locks in the PV in SE Canada, and yields a more meridional flow -- we do not have the meridional flow right now. If the ridge becomes amplified enough, then some temporary blocks can be "pinched off" by a storm into Greenland -- which is what happened with the January 3 event. 

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I like that period a lot, too. Earlier today, I posted an article that explains why the upcoming period (including Saturday) is pretty hostile for any snowstorms, but why the period starting next week -- particularly to close the month -- looks much better.

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/01/14/chances-cold-snow-significantly-increasing-close-month/

The PNA ridge becomes stronger, cut off, and retrogrades towards Alaska, which tanks the EPO and locks in the PV in SE Canada, and yields a more meridional flow -- we do not have the meridional flow right now. If the ridge becomes amplified enough, then some temporary blocks can be "pinched off" by a storm into Greenland -- which is what happened with the January 3 event.

Read that earlier. Good stuff as always!

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I like that period a lot, too. Earlier today, I posted an article that explains why the upcoming period (including Saturday) is pretty hostile for any snowstorms, but why the period starting next week -- particularly to close the month -- looks much better.

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/01/14/chances-cold-snow-significantly-increasing-close-month/

The PNA ridge becomes stronger, cut off, and retrogrades towards Alaska, which tanks the EPO and locks in the PV in SE Canada, and yields a more meridional flow -- we do not have the meridional flow right now. If the ridge becomes amplified enough, then some temporary blocks can be "pinched off" by a storm into Greenland -- which is what happened with the January 3 event.

Nice article Man. Fun times ahead!

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For those interested in snowcover as a requirement for sub zero temps in NYC, I mined some data.

 

I included all days with a minimum temperature of +1 or less since 1879 (+1 is close enough for this purpose).  There were a total of 87 days meeting this criteria.

 

Only 17 of 87 days had snowcover of 6" or more.

 

27 out of 87 had no snow cover or a trace.

 

Just under half of the sample had snowcover of 2" or less and the average snowcover for all 87 days was 2.9"

 

 

The full dataset is included in the following pdf.  There are two different views:

  • by snow cover
  • by minimum temperature

Within those sorts the most recent occurrences appear first which may or may not help discern a trend regarding snowcover on very cold days.

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/NYC-ColdDaySnowcover.pdf

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For those interested in snowcover as a requirement for sub zero temps in NYC, I mined some data.

 

I included all days with a minimum temperature of +1 or less since 1879 (+1 is close enough for this purpose).  There were a total of 87 days meeting this criteria.

 

Only 17 of 87 days had snowcover of 6" or more.

 

27 out of 87 had no snow cover or a trace.

 

Just under half of the sample had snowcover of 2" or less and the average snowcover for all 87 days was 2.9"

 

 

The full dataset is included in the following pdf.  There are two different views:

  • by snow cover
  • by minimum temperature

Within those sorts the most recent occurrences appear first which may or may not help discern a trend regarding snowcover on very cold days.

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/NYC-ColdDaySnowcover.pdf

I did a little research on this subject the other day...

snow was on the ground...

date................temp........snow depth

01/10/2004..........1..........none

01/16/2004..........1..........5"

01/27/1994..........0..........7"

01/19/1994.........-2..........5"

01/21/1985.........-2..........3"

01/17/1982..........0..........5"

12/25/1980.........-1..........T

02/18/1979..........0..........3"

01/17/1977.........-2..........6"

01/23/1976.........-1..........1"

01/09/1968.........-1..........3"

02/08/1963.........-2..........none

02/02/1961.........-2..........8"

01/15/1957..........0..........none

02/03/1955..........0..........3"

01/31/1948..........0..........10"

12/20/1942.........-4..........1"

01/15/1943.........-8..........2"

some other years...

12/30/1933.........-6..........9"

02/09/1934.......-15..........3"

12/30/1917.......-13..........3"

02/05/1918.........-6..........6"

02/10/1899.........-6..........6"

01/24/1882.........-6..........T

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I did a little research on this subject the other day...

snow was on the ground...

date................temp........snow depth

01/10/2004..........1..........none

01/16/2004..........1..........5"

01/27/1994..........0..........7"

01/19/1994.........-2..........5"

01/21/1985.........-2..........3"

01/17/1982..........0..........5"

12/25/1980.........-1..........T

02/18/1979..........0..........3"

01/17/1977.........-2..........6"

01/23/1976.........-1..........1"

01/09/1968.........-1..........3"

02/08/1963.........-2..........none

02/02/1961.........-2..........8"

01/15/1957..........0..........none

02/03/1955..........0..........3"

01/31/1948..........0..........10"

12/20/1942.........-4..........1"

01/15/1943.........-8..........2"

some other years...

12/30/1933.........-6..........9"

02/09/1934.......-15..........3"

12/30/1917.......-13..........3"

02/05/1918.........-6..........6"

02/10/1899.........-6..........6"

01/24/1882.........-6..........T

 

 I found the 1880s particularly interesting.  It was a snowy decade (32.8" average) and there were 17 days where the minimum temperature was 1 or lower, but more than half of those very cold days had only a trace or no snow at all on the ground.  If you look at only the sub-zero days that decade (-1 and below) out of 9 (an impressive total), only 4 had more than a trace of snow on the ground.

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 I found the 1880s particularly interesting.  It was a snowy decade (32.8" average) and there were 17 days where the minimum temperature was 1 or lower, but more than half of those very cold days had only a trace or no snow at all on the ground.  If you look at only the sub-zero days that decade (-1 and below) out of 9 (an impressive total), only 4 had more than a trace of snow on the ground.

The population of the NYC metro region in the 1880s was roughly 1.8-2 million, which is about 10% of what it is today -- remember that Brooklyn wasn't even considered part of NYC until 1898. Pre-asphalt and concrete, too, though I'm sure there was still a minor heat island. 

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Hr 168 it pops coastal that does track near the bench mark. Need more digging and the trough needs to go negative 6+ sooner. Precip field is small verbatim.

Edit: 6-12 hrs sooner. Maybe a met can chime in even though its it the LR and the likelihood of verification is slim. I'd still like to learn if I'm wrong.

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