sferic Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So many of these KU s have been wiped out within a week to 10 days since 96 for me . Not saying they aren't what we live for but why not just root on the pattern you are dealt and hope it over preforms. Saves angst Your logic is flawless. Which winter was it, 2011 or 2010 that had Long Island Snow depths truly the highest I saw them in 25 years from multiple storms, is that the pattern we want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So many of these KU s have been wiped out within a week to 10 days since 96 for me . Not saying they aren't what we live for but why not just root on the pattern you are dealt and hope it over preforms. Saves angst Yeah, and the small details like that brief block that popped up early in the month were only seen about 5 days ahead of time. Maybe in the long range a piece of that EPO block migrates over closer to the Davis Strait and opens a window for another 6'+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Your logic is flawless. Which winter was it, 2011 or 2010 that had Long Island Snow depths truly the highest I saw them in 25 years from multiple storms, is that the pattern we want? Sure. But that's not that the pattern ur in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Per HM in the mid-atlantic threads, he's liking the 1/28-1/30 period for a 'possible' widespread storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Per HM in the mid-atlantic threads, he's liking the 1/28-1/30 period for a 'possible' widespread storm. Oh good only 2 weeks away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Oh good only 2 weeks away lol. I can deal with that though, knowing how cold it will be at that point, especially if we get a couple of smaller 2-4/3-6 inch deals prior to that like PB GFI was talking about before. Should be an interesting SuperBowl week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Gfs is a snooze fest, good time to just step away from the weather and models for several days and let things play out day by day. Pleasant weather too, very early Spring like for the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Oh good only 2 weeks away lol. Gfs is a snooze fest, good time to just step away from the weather and models for several days and let things play out day by day. Pleasant weather too, very early Spring like for the next several days. Take it to banter dude. These posts are nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Take it to banter dude. These posts are nonsense. most of the posts here are nonsense and belong in the banter thread. Why do you guys think you are above, lets say, the SNE thread (where most actually have weather knowledge)? Do you ever read through their threads? There is CONSTANT banter in between some really stellar analysis...Chill out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That's a 5 day mean , so if there is snow cover under there, some places spend multiple nights below zero DEF from the upper Midwest thru the great lakes into the Ohio valley and interior Northeast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 most of the posts here are nonsense and belong in the banter thread. Why do you guys think you are above, lets say, the SNE thread (where most actually have weather knowledge)? Do you ever read through their threads? There is CONSTANT banter in between some really stellar analysis...Chill out. Yeah? Stellar analysis like we have here? "1-3 at best"? "Next"? That kind of stellar analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 That's a 5 day mean , so if there is snow cover under there, some places spend multiple nights below zero DEF from the upper Midwest thru the great lakes into the Ohio valley and interior Northeast . Analogs suggest that NYC dips below 10 degrees again before the month is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Analogs suggest that NYC dips below 10 degrees again before the month is over. 814analog.off.gif Below zero is so hard at KNYC U would need those thicknesses and a foot of snow on the ground IMO but think single digits are there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Per HM in the mid-atlantic threads, he's liking the 1/28-1/30 period for a 'possible' widespread storm. I like that period a lot, too. Earlier today, I posted an article that explains why the upcoming period (including Saturday) is pretty hostile for any snowstorms, but why the period starting next week -- particularly to close the month -- looks much better. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/01/14/chances-cold-snow-significantly-increasing-close-month/ The PNA ridge becomes stronger, cut off, and retrogrades towards Alaska, which tanks the EPO and locks in the PV in SE Canada, and yields a more meridional flow -- we do not have the meridional flow right now. If the ridge becomes amplified enough, then some temporary blocks can be "pinched off" by a storm into Greenland -- which is what happened with the January 3 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I like that period a lot, too. Earlier today, I posted an article that explains why the upcoming period (including Saturday) is pretty hostile for any snowstorms, but why the period starting next week -- particularly to close the month -- looks much better. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/01/14/chances-cold-snow-significantly-increasing-close-month/ The PNA ridge becomes stronger, cut off, and retrogrades towards Alaska, which tanks the EPO and locks in the PV in SE Canada, and yields a more meridional flow -- we do not have the meridional flow right now. If the ridge becomes amplified enough, then some temporary blocks can be "pinched off" by a storm into Greenland -- which is what happened with the January 3 event. Read that earlier. Good stuff as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I like that period a lot, too. Earlier today, I posted an article that explains why the upcoming period (including Saturday) is pretty hostile for any snowstorms, but why the period starting next week -- particularly to close the month -- looks much better. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/01/14/chances-cold-snow-significantly-increasing-close-month/ The PNA ridge becomes stronger, cut off, and retrogrades towards Alaska, which tanks the EPO and locks in the PV in SE Canada, and yields a more meridional flow -- we do not have the meridional flow right now. If the ridge becomes amplified enough, then some temporary blocks can be "pinched off" by a storm into Greenland -- which is what happened with the January 3 event. Nice article Man. Fun times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 For those interested in snowcover as a requirement for sub zero temps in NYC, I mined some data. I included all days with a minimum temperature of +1 or less since 1879 (+1 is close enough for this purpose). There were a total of 87 days meeting this criteria. Only 17 of 87 days had snowcover of 6" or more. 27 out of 87 had no snow cover or a trace. Just under half of the sample had snowcover of 2" or less and the average snowcover for all 87 days was 2.9" The full dataset is included in the following pdf. There are two different views: by snow cover by minimum temperature Within those sorts the most recent occurrences appear first which may or may not help discern a trend regarding snowcover on very cold days. http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/NYC-ColdDaySnowcover.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 For those interested in snowcover as a requirement for sub zero temps in NYC, I mined some data. I included all days with a minimum temperature of +1 or less since 1879 (+1 is close enough for this purpose). There were a total of 87 days meeting this criteria. Only 17 of 87 days had snowcover of 6" or more. 27 out of 87 had no snow cover or a trace. Just under half of the sample had snowcover of 2" or less and the average snowcover for all 87 days was 2.9" The full dataset is included in the following pdf. There are two different views: by snow cover by minimum temperature Within those sorts the most recent occurrences appear first which may or may not help discern a trend regarding snowcover on very cold days. http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/NYC-ColdDaySnowcover.pdf I did a little research on this subject the other day... snow was on the ground... date................temp........snow depth 01/10/2004..........1..........none 01/16/2004..........1..........5" 01/27/1994..........0..........7" 01/19/1994.........-2..........5" 01/21/1985.........-2..........3" 01/17/1982..........0..........5" 12/25/1980.........-1..........T 02/18/1979..........0..........3" 01/17/1977.........-2..........6" 01/23/1976.........-1..........1" 01/09/1968.........-1..........3" 02/08/1963.........-2..........none 02/02/1961.........-2..........8" 01/15/1957..........0..........none 02/03/1955..........0..........3" 01/31/1948..........0..........10" 12/20/1942.........-4..........1" 01/15/1943.........-8..........2" some other years... 12/30/1933.........-6..........9" 02/09/1934.......-15..........3" 12/30/1917.......-13..........3" 02/05/1918.........-6..........6" 02/10/1899.........-6..........6" 01/24/1882.........-6..........T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I did a little research on this subject the other day... snow was on the ground... date................temp........snow depth 01/10/2004..........1..........none 01/16/2004..........1..........5" 01/27/1994..........0..........7" 01/19/1994.........-2..........5" 01/21/1985.........-2..........3" 01/17/1982..........0..........5" 12/25/1980.........-1..........T 02/18/1979..........0..........3" 01/17/1977.........-2..........6" 01/23/1976.........-1..........1" 01/09/1968.........-1..........3" 02/08/1963.........-2..........none 02/02/1961.........-2..........8" 01/15/1957..........0..........none 02/03/1955..........0..........3" 01/31/1948..........0..........10" 12/20/1942.........-4..........1" 01/15/1943.........-8..........2" some other years... 12/30/1933.........-6..........9" 02/09/1934.......-15..........3" 12/30/1917.......-13..........3" 02/05/1918.........-6..........6" 02/10/1899.........-6..........6" 01/24/1882.........-6..........T I found the 1880s particularly interesting. It was a snowy decade (32.8" average) and there were 17 days where the minimum temperature was 1 or lower, but more than half of those very cold days had only a trace or no snow at all on the ground. If you look at only the sub-zero days that decade (-1 and below) out of 9 (an impressive total), only 4 had more than a trace of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I found the 1880s particularly interesting. It was a snowy decade (32.8" average) and there were 17 days where the minimum temperature was 1 or lower, but more than half of those very cold days had only a trace or no snow at all on the ground. If you look at only the sub-zero days that decade (-1 and below) out of 9 (an impressive total), only 4 had more than a trace of snow on the ground. The population of the NYC metro region in the 1880s was roughly 1.8-2 million, which is about 10% of what it is today -- remember that Brooklyn wasn't even considered part of NYC until 1898. Pre-asphalt and concrete, too, though I'm sure there was still a minor heat island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Pretty quite Euro rub through hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 0z Euro has a 990 low near the benchmark for next Wednesday/ Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hr 168 it pops coastal that does track near the bench mark. Need more digging and the trough needs to go negative 6+ sooner. Precip field is small verbatim. Edit: 6-12 hrs sooner. Maybe a met can chime in even though its it the LR and the likelihood of verification is slim. I'd still like to learn if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hr 168 it pops coastal that does track near the bench mark. Need more digging and the trough needs to go negative 6+ sooner. Precip field is small verbatim. Good sign this far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Cold end to the Euro run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The 06Z NAM is looking mighty interesting @HR84. Look at that strong vort swing down in the Upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Temp below freezing here now with dense fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Temp below freezing here now with dense fog. Low visibility this a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Some of the densest fog that I have ever seen here in Western Nassau just north of the Southern State with zero visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I showed the Euro 5 day means last nite in the 11 to 15 day period , according to the CFSV2 that's not the end of it . Jan 21 thru Feb 4 would be a long stretch of very cold weather from the Rockies East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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