December 21-23rd Winter Storm Part 4

[Harry Perry]

I'm in the NW end of that MD about the freezing rain rates of .10/hr. Right now I think we are just straight rain though. It's been raining since noon and I've seen very little accreditation since then. My Kestrel thermomenter has us at 32.4, while the local observation at the airport (3 miles away) has us at 31.

No doubt we have more ZR in store as the day moves on, but so far it's not been terrible.

This is all bonus rain... Wasn't supposed to start until 6 here.

[Torontonian]

Same report in Forest Hill. Had some 4cm long icicles on signs and tree branches. I'd say about 0.5 cm of accreted ice on tree branches, looks very pretty I must say. Nothing on sidewalks or anything low, though.

 

Not a single icicle along Bloor St, though

 

It was incredible this morning up in North York. Sidewalks were completely glazed over and preserved with ice with nearly 1cm of accreted ice. Never seen that before

I am around Queens Park in T.O. Was about +0.6 most morning here and bit of melting.

 

Now 0 exactly and ice starting to accumulate a bit branches, etc.. Temp is slowly dropping still......not good.

 

Found hitting pan and zooming in on downtown T.O with this radar most accurate after being out and about and witnessing and verifying.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USNY0124

[Jim Marusak]

10,000 without power in Picton, ON (near Belleville) 

 

They've seen 2cm of ice accretion around there.

20 mms out on Prince Edward already? wow.

 

btw, latest obs provide some added intrigue in Southern Ontario. 21Z obs are hinting at -FZRASN over in YPQ (Peterborough) and implied as such over at YOO (Oshawa). As well, freezing rain at 24F/-4C in Kingston and 28f/-2c with frz rain with winds being estimated due to ice accretion at CFB-Trenton.

[Geos]

Goes posting snowfall percentile maps.

 

Here's the 2"+ and 4"+ probability maps. Looks a little more realistic...

 

2" probs.png

 

4" probs.png

 

That's from the HPC. I figured it was legit.

 

Then we have these.

 

 

[Geos]

What's the link to those products again?

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities

[cyclone77]

15z 12hr mean FWIW.

 

[huronicane]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities

 

Thanks.  Do you happen to know the link for the other weather.gov products that are plotted on Google Earth maps?

[A-L-E-K]

impressive

 

[harrisale]

Wasn't really excited by the accretion so far here (finally began about an hour ago) so I went for a drive in search of some better ice. Amazing how sharp a gradient can be. Drove a mere 4 kilometers north and trees had a solid ice coating. Drove about another 6 kilometers north (401 and Trafalgar) and encountered at least 1cm of ice down already on trees and fences etc. Incredible. And this event is just getting going.

 

 

[mississaugasnow]

Burlington Lift Bridge now seeing a temperature drop. 0.3C still 0.7C at Toronto Island. looking from that intellicast map you can really see that the QE is the divider. 

[mississaugasnow]

Wasn't really excited by the accretion so far here (finally began about an hour ago) so I went for a drive in search of some better ice. Amazing how sharp a gradient can be. Drove a mere 4 kilometers north and trees had a solid ice coating. Drove about another 6 kilometers north (401 and Trafalgar) and encountered at least 1cm of ice down already on trees and fences etc. Incredible. And this event is just getting going.

 

 

Nice photos. How are the roads up that way? 

[Geos]

Thanks.  Do you happen to know the link for the other weather.gov products that are plotted on Google Earth maps?

 

That I don't know.

 

I gotta say nice pictures Mississauga, but I wouldn't want to deal with it. Take care there!

[harrisale]

Nice photos. How are the roads up that way? 

 

Roads not terrible yet, but I was mostly on treated roads. Untreated roads and parking lots getting a good coating.

[WestCoaster]

Wasn't really excited by the accretion so far here (finally began about an hour ago) so I went for a drive in search of some better ice. Amazing how sharp a gradient can be. Drove a mere 4 kilometers north and trees had a solid ice coating. Drove about another 6 kilometers north (401 and Trafalgar) and encountered at least 1cm of ice down already on trees and fences etc. Incredible. And this event is just getting going.

 

 

 

Freezing rain all day north of the 401. Power is going to be very out

[tuanis]

Light rain has just started. 33 degrees.

[Boogieman]

Got back around 4:30 or so from picking up some gas and a couple last-minute things. Krogers was PACKED! The temps then, in the van, was 33-34. Nothing was icing at that point, but we had a decent rain falling for a few. Just went out to lay some salt down and the metal objects are starting to ice up. 31.0 degrees IMBY. 

 

And so it begins. 

 

According to Intellicast radar, there's a bit of snow falling now in the next county west and the extreme NW corner of Genesee county. 

[cyclone77]

Getting some very light freezing rain here now.  More like freezing sprinkles.  28 degrees.

[madwx]

Some freezing drizzle occurring northwest of Madison.  Wasn't expecting this before the main event but the low levels must be fairly saturated.  27/24 at MSN.

[Geos]

RPM shifted south a bit with the 2-4" and 4-6" area.

 

 

Newest disco from LOT.

 

...WINTER STORM...THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

HEADLINE NOTES...WILL ALLOW THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
4PM FOR EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM LASALLE COUNTY TO CHICAGO WILL BE
LEFT AS IS TO EXPIRE AT 10PM. HOWEVER...THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER EXTENDING AT LEAST PARTS OF THE ADVISORY TO SUNDAY
MORNING PENDING TRENDS WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY (LAKE AND KANE) WILL NOW BE STARTED AT 6PM AS MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.

DETAILS...

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR...WITH THE 18Z NAM SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST WITH TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THEME REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST SNOWS INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS DESPITE THIS CONTINUED VARIANCE.

THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF MENDOTA TO CHICAGO LINE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT JUST SKIRTING THE NORTHERN CWA. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE QUITE COMPLEX...WITH A WARM NOSE OF OVER 4C EVIDENT ON
A RECENT ORD AIRCRAFT SOUNDING JUST BELOW 800 MB. AS THE
PRECIPITATION WORKS ITS WAY NORTH...THIS WILL COOL SOME WITH
SATURATION BUT STILL ENOUGH TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MELT ICE CRYSTALS.
SO AREAS WEST OF CHICAGO ARE IN LINE FOR SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN/PLAIN RAIN THIS EVENING WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING/INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY UP
TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME AREAS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN PLAIN RAIN CONTINUING. FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE TYPE
PONDING AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR AREAS
OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...CONTINUING INTO THE MID OR LATE EVENING
NORTH OF A PNT TO GYY LINE.

IN THE WINTER STORM AND NORTHERN PORTION OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP REMAINING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...ONLY
ANTICIPATING LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS INTO THIS EVENING.
HERE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE FOR ALL SNOW WITH A LESS
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER GRADUALLY COOLING WITH TIME TO BELOW FREEZING.
THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THIS AREA YOU GO CAN EXPECT MORE OF A
THREAT FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FULL
MELTING OF ICE CRYSTALS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRYSLOT WITH THE
UPPER SYSTEM CLEARLY EVIDENT ON W/V IMAGERY WILL ENVELOP THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE/FZDZ...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SLEET MIXED IN. AT THIS TIME
IS ALSO WHEN THE TROWAL FEATURE/DEFORMATION AXIS WILL MOST GREATLY
IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT THROUGH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE LIKELY WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.
AGAIN...TRENDS WILL NEED TO NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE HEAVIEST BANDING. THIS IS THE TIME OF THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AND WHEN ROAD CREWS COULD HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING
UP WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT THE QPF
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING UNDER THE DRY SLOT COULD BE A STEADIER
DRIZZLE AND THUS FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AREAS BELOW FREEZING. THIS
COULD NECESSITATE THE EXTENSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM
LA SALLE COUNTY TO CHICAGO AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THOUGH NOTE THAT THE
CITY ITSELF SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MITIGATE IMPACTS.

FINALLY...INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW PRONOUNCED THE DRY
SLOT IS AT THAT TIME...WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE OTHER
MODELS IN RETURNING SATURATION TO AREAS CLOSE TO CHICAGO. THIS WILL
IMPACT HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS DURING THE MORNING SOUTHEAST OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS IN OUR CWA WHEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE FINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE DRY SLOT MAKING IT TOUGH FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION IN
THE CITY AND POINTS JUST SOUTH...BUT IF THE GFS SOLUTION COMES TO
FRUITION...AMOUNTS COULD BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...WITH THE BEST FORCING STILL TO THE NORTH AND
DEPARTING NORTHEAST...WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

THE OVERALL IDEA IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS VERY SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...HIGHEST IN THE 6 TO 8 INCH RANGE NORTH OF A
WOODSTOCK TO DIXON LINE AND QUICKLY TAPERING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH
LESS THAN INCH IN DOWNTOWN CHICAGO AND LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.

 

[huronicane]

Light to moderate freezing rain ongoing here, starting to accumulate on the ground and elevated surfaces.

[cyclone77]

RPM shifted south a bit with the 2-4" and 4-6" area.

 

 

Where you getting that from?

 

Some light sleet mixing in with the very light freezing rain now.

[Geos]

Where you getting that from?

 

Some light sleet mixing in with the very light freezing rain now.

 

Skilling's FB page. I think you're going to do really well there.

 

I could see the axis of better snow being a bit south. Maybe not as extreme as the EURO, but maybe like the GFS.

[Mogget]

Freezing drizzle southwest of Madison. Been on and off for at least 90 minutes.

[Jim Marusak]

Burlington Lift Bridge now seeing a temperature drop. 0.3C still 0.7C at Toronto Island. looking from that intellicast map you can really see that the QE is the divider. 

hate to say it, but how many vehicles you think will end up sliding off the side of Burlington and/or St Catherine's Skyways into Lake Ontario as well as maybe off the Gardnier Expressway into downtown Toronto?

[snowstormcanuck]

Ice starting to accrete on the cars and on untreated surfaces.

[Chicago Storm]

Plain rain here.

[Geos]

33.0°/32° here currently.

 

Seems like most of the moisture is heading NE/ENE. Just skirting by.

[WestCoaster]

Ice starting to accrete on the cars and on untreated surfaces.

 

Loud outside. Tree branches making very odd creaking noises

[London snowsquall]

10,000 without power in Picton, ON (near Belleville) 

 

They've seen 2cm of ice accretion around there.

Not good.   My son and daughter are in Picton.   My daughter's boyfriend has a fair sized maple sugar operation just outside of Picton.  I was afraid of this.......  Meanwhile in the banana belt in London - just continues to rain at 34F.  Not sure if the temp will drop enough to get anything else.

[WestCoaster]

2,000 now without power just north of Brampton

 

nearly 20,000 total without power within the past couple hours