CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Clippers and bitter cold with a possible strong close track low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Clippers and bitter cold with a possible strong close track low? January 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I don't hate the New Year potential...it doesn't look overwhelming right now, but a lot of ensemble members have a clipper-esque system. Those would obviously be difficult to track more than a few days out. As we saw with last Tuesday, quick moving clipper systems that move south of SNE can produce nice surprises. It's funny in a way how it seems the models are tuned directly into nerve-button of the winter wagon trainers . I see posts start coming out about a specific threat and it seems like on purpose, the very next cycle starts fumbling around with it just to see how people will react - muah hahahaha. Actually, I wasn't even aware of any NY thing. The PNA is slated to go positive here in a couple of pulses, ending some +1SD. In fact, the signal is even a tad louder than yesterday, when the agencies both had the same idea. The NAO is neutralizing, and the EPO is staying somewhat negative. I tell you what ... if no specific event falls out of all that potential in the larger scope, it should result in one helluva gradient pattern again. AO is tanking too, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Okay, I see it now ... and yes the mode changes on-going as we lead up to the end of the month do support an event of some kind then. It's worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 January 2005. Jan 2005 blizz wasn't a close tracker...it jackpotted the cape lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think Jerry means the other minor storms. Those were borderline but man we threaded the needle in each one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think Jerry means the other minor storm. Those were borderline but man we threaded the needle in each one. Yes. Clipper heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Yes. Clipper heaven. I remember just when we were about to tip, the precip stopped and the cold came back in. Every storm seemed to overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 The euro op shows you the clipper deals. It's so cold that once these get their feet into the Atlantic...they blossom with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think Jerry means the other minor storms. Those were borderline but man we threaded the needle in each one. Just one of those years when everything close tipped in our favor....even the ones that had no bussiness doing so. Only large exception was the bust in early Feb....we had warnings up for 1', only to be drenched by an inch of rain while the foothills of ME rejoiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Just one of those years when everything close tipped in our favor....even the ones that had no bussiness doing so. Only large exception was the bust in early Feb....we had warnings up for 1', only to be drenched by an inch of rain while the foothills of ME rejoiced. The end of the month sure made up for it..lol. Will's favorite event. Still some of the hardest snows I have ever seen, night of 2/28/05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Great to see we are heading away from a total gradient pattern very LR, that's tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 The euro op shows you the clipper deals. It's so cold that once these get their feet into the Atlantic...they blossom with moisture. Clippers digging down and kissing the gulf stream bode well for Cape Cod, MA With the AO going down I like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'm not sure we are moving away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I only say this because if we get a storm that is modest from a sharp s/w moving across the OV...then it will track close to the Cape. Potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 The euro op shows you the clipper deals. It's so cold that once these get their feet into the Atlantic...they blossom with moisture.Those are perfect for NE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I think the gradient pattern may return at some point, but it seems to be most prominent throughout the month of December during seasons that feature it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I'm not sure we are moving away from it. The PNA spike will probably shove things further SE in terms of temp gradients...but the PNA doesn't look like long term big positive values. Oscilliating between neutral and positive...and with a +NAO, its definitely still going to have gradient-esque properties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Most systems will probably go out to sea from here on out because the mid atl. is a snow haven....I don't believe in regression to the mean. 2010 was just them catching up after a century of screw jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I don't know guy's, the index changes are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I don't know guy's, the index changes are coming. Just remember that Jan 1994 had a neutral PNA, a negative AO, and a strongly positive NAO....that was a huge gradient pattern...but the cold anomalies were pressed well south of DC. However, the storm track still favored snow in New England. Those are similar teleconnection values that are projected for the first half of January. The PNA may be slightly more positive,..but we'll have to wait and see. I don't think the SE ridge will be nearly as robust as this December, but I sitll think there will be a large temp gradient in the anomalies with the warmest being SE US and the coldest probably the northern tier of the lakes into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 JAN 2-4 is primed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Weeklies have been awful. Week 3 just keeps trending colder. Week 4 is ok, but week 4 has been so awful. Looks more +PNA-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro ensembles just keep getting colder for the EPO look. I think 1/1 and 14 are two potential events to watch. The periods where the PNA spikes could be potential redeveloping clippers and Miller Bs if one can dig enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Euro ensembles just keep getting colder for the EPO look. I think 1/1 and 14 are two potential events to watch. The periods where the PNA spikes could be potential redeveloping clippers and Miller Bs if one can dig enough. I like as how you go out in time, the anomalies grow. Leads to high confidence of EPO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 Warmista's crying for their mama's very soon. Growing bodies of water iced over ....with a slow but steady build in snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I am hearing TWC / WSI? are forecasting a full torch for January, can anyone confirm?http://www.wsi.com/7ce24771-bcb8-4533-ae7b-973967cf5b6c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htmhttp://www.weather.com/video/forecast-for-january-42388 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 birthday on 1/3 would love a full blown blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 I was just looking at the stratosphere products and look out! Big warm column over eastern Siberia, extends through the entire depth from 10hPa to the 100hPa levels, indicating a massive block and cross polar flow would evolve from N Asia into N Canada. That's beginning D7+ --> until further notice. That is NOT was warm first 10 days of January by any stretch. I also believe the NAO is neutralizing, and that could be an early signal for actually going negative. The AO is tanking in all members ... but I am almost thinking it is that insane AA/-EPO strength just encroaching upon and stressing the AO domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I am hearing TWC / WSI? are forecasting a full torch for January, can anyone confirm? http://www.wsi.com/7ce24771-bcb8-4533-ae7b-973967cf5b6c/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm http://www.weather.com/video/forecast-for-january-42388 Those forecasts appear to have been largely based on the 12/19 run of the CFSv2: If so, that's kind of risky, as the CFSv2's best skill lies within 5-10 days of the succeeding month. Needless to say, one shouldn't assume that other information was not also used, but the similarity to the CFSv2 when it's outside its best skill range suggests risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.