mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I like being modeled on the cold side of the boundary, but C NH is still on the edge. AUG will probably be torn a new one. I'd like to see the low level cold modeled stronger in the coming days. we will probably be on the cold side for a good part of this and that should cement the pack, even if we go dark side for a bit. Pack fetish here because a deep pack makes a 4 inch snow seem like a biggie while its happening. What do you think of friday? no hpc probs down here. And how much did you get yesterday? i was about 4.5 i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I like being modeled on the cold side of the boundary, but C NH is still on the edge. AUG will probably be torn a new one. I'd like to see the low level cold modeled stronger in the coming days. Did the Euro ens also cool? I just think alot of these 50's and 60's we're seeing now forecast might be in a bit of trouble over the weekend.. Of course they could be right..but there's enough evidence to maybe not go that warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Did the Euro ens also cool? I just think alot of these 50's and 60's we're seeing now forecast might be in a bit of trouble over the weekend.. Of course they could be right..but there's enough evidence to maybe not go that warm No, they stayed about status quo. I think we're probably going to hit the 50s on Sunday....but maybe we can constrain it to a 6-10 hour period versus 18-24 hours. Esp north of the pike and into S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Do the EC ensembles look icy around here? The models are starting to freak me out with the amount of ice they're predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 No, they stayed about status quo. I think we're probably going to hit the 50s on Sunday....but maybe we can constrain it to a 6-10 hour period versus 18-24 hours. Esp north of the pike and into S NH. We can hope some of the colder GEFS have a clue I guess. Today is do or die day model wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 No, they stayed about status quo. I think we're probably going to hit the 50s on Sunday....but maybe we can constrain it to a 6-10 hour period versus 18-24 hours. Esp north of the pike and into S NH. hopefully some of us can lay down the ice shield before the hopefully brief assault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I like being modeled on the cold side of the boundary, but C NH is still on the edge. AUG will probably be torn a new one. I'd like to see the low level cold modeled stronger in the coming days. I agree - I am hoping I can be on the cold side and get in on ice if possible. I just want to save the snowpack at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 extreme long shot at this time lead...but maybe coastal peeps can snag a xmas miracle with that cold HP building in N of NE tue/wed and get some OES. Somehow this will transform into you and I getting a slushy inch or two while Jerry is up to his hips in powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 hey mods - I'm mostly a lurker with the occasion observation post or two, so I don't feel like I've a lot of weight here, but can you remind folks to keep the discussion thread free of banter? It's pretty painful to read single sentence posts over and over again in the diiscussion thread about how the snowpack is going to melt, the dog is going to run away, and the wife is going to leave because hubby doesn't know how to keep a proper snowpack around through Christmas. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Somehow this will transform into you and I getting a slushy inch or two while Jerry is up to his hips in powder That will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 hey mods - I'm mostly a lurker with the occasion observation post or two, so I don't feel like I've a lot of weight here, but can you remind folks to keep the discussion thread free of banter? It's pretty painful to read single sentence posts over and over again in the diiscussion thread about how the snowpack is going to melt, the dog is going to run away, and the wife is going to leave because hubby doesn't know how to keep a proper snowpack around through Christmas. Thanks. A lot of those snowpack posts have to do with the pattern discussion. It's ok to have a little human emotion once in a while..we don't bleed oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 hey mods - I'm mostly a lurker with the occasion observation post or two, so I don't feel like I've a lot of weight here, but can you remind folks to keep the discussion thread free of banter? It's pretty painful to read single sentence posts over and over again in the diiscussion thread about how the snowpack is going to melt, the dog is going to run away, and the wife is going to leave because hubby doesn't know how to keep a proper snowpack around through Christmas. Thanks.This is what keeps this subforum going in situations where a holy war is declared on their snowpack, last ditch efforts and wishcasting to try and save it. Atleast they have snowpack though to be proud of i got 1" of encrusted snow on long island lol. But this forum probably provided some of the better met info on here, trust me this behavior keeps everyone sane here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 hey mods - I'm mostly a lurker with the occasion observation post or two, so I don't feel like I've a lot of weight here, but can you remind folks to keep the discussion thread free of banter? It's pretty painful to read single sentence posts over and over again in the diiscussion thread about how the snowpack is going to melt, the dog is going to run away, and the wife is going to leave because hubby doesn't know how to keep a proper snowpack around through Christmas. Thanks. Snowpack discussion is not banter it is related to the potential warmup coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 A lot of those snowpack posts have to do with the pattern discussion. It's ok to have a little human emotion once in a while..we don't bleed oil. This. Too much rigidity ruins normal human discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 euro 2-m max on sunday at NYC is 69F. LOL edit: 68F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 euro 2-m max on sunday at NYC is 69F. LOL edit: 68F. 570 thicknesses over the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This. Too much rigidity ruins normal human discussion. Now, where we do want rigidity is in our snowpack....and in our weenie pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 euro 2-m max on sunday at NYC is 69F. LOL edit: 68F. that's got to be record high or very close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 that's got to be record high or very close? The ensembles aren't nearly that warm down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Well the thing is....it all depends on how strong the s/w is ejecting out of the southwest. As modeled, it's strong and does not care about snow on the ground. But, if it's a bit weaker the front easily could struggle north. But, it's a catch 22. Even if the front is south, you maybe have 1-3" of rain from lift over it. Part of me sees the icing potential possibly into nrn ORH county. 2008 ice storm redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's pretty bizarre and not like we have some powerhouse phased low tracking west of us to bring up this extreme warmth. Its a weak wavy looking thing that tracks over me more or less. yet we get 850 temps for the ages. 570 thicknesses over the MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 that's got to be record high or very close? good question. got to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's pretty bizarre and not like we have some powerhouse phased low tracking west of us to bring up this extreme warmth. Its a weak wavy looking thing that tracks over me more or less. yet we get 850 temps for the ages. it comes right up from the tropics thanks to that cutoff in the SW. Big SE ridge too. The euro op might be too warm, but if we lived at 850mb. It would be Toucan Sam weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 you can see the CAD nicely on the EURO. the 00z run has KCON at like 35F midday on Sunday...but DXR is 62F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 it comes right up from the tropics thanks to that cutoff in the SW. Big SE ridge too. The euro op might be too warm, but if we lived at 850mb. It would be Toucan Sam weather. Lol toucan sam weather. There has got to be some record high temps in jeapordy come sunday in the northeast whether it be in NE or the tri-state is yet to be seen. Mother nature will be forming battle plans this week for the assualt on new englands snowpack though, brace yourselves people for mother natures furnace!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Suppose to be going to the Vermont Country Store in Weston VT Sunday lets just try to keep the icing north of there! This could be bad for alot of people up north that high means business.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Over the next week we will see which way this winter goes. It looks pretty good but I think there's still some signs...maybe 20 or 30% chance it could break bad and we break milder than average. The overwhelming signal is positive but let's see what shakes after the disco inferno on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 hey mods - I'm mostly a lurker with the occasion observation post or two, so I don't feel like I've a lot of weight here, but can you remind folks to keep the discussion thread free of banter? It's pretty painful to read single sentence posts over and over again in the diiscussion thread about how the snowpack is going to melt, the dog is going to run away, and the wife is going to leave because hubby doesn't know how to keep a proper snowpack around through Christmas. Thanks. Snowpack discussion has direct correlation to pattern discussion. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Over the next week we will see which way this winter goes. It looks pretty good but I think there's still some signs...maybe 20 or 30% chance it could break bad and we break milder than average. The overwhelming signal is positive but let's see what shakes after the disco inferno on Sunday. Agree. If there ends up being no blocking and the EPO goes to hell, an inferno could break out ala Jan 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 A lot of those snowpack posts have to do with the pattern discussion. It's ok to have a little human emotion once in a while..we don't bleed oil. "Warm weather does not compute...warm weather does not compute.......must get cold to snoooowwwww!!!" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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