Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Firstly, the GEFs teleconnectors suggest some changes lurking ...unsure how profound those will be. The PNA rises through the end of the month ...might go positive for a time, but a substantial enough phase adjustment to suspect more storminess lurks during the week of x-mass. Also, this weekend is less clear in my mind (see below) Meanwhile, the Pac appears to be losing some of the AA phase.. both the WPO and EPO are neutralizing. This "could" herald an end to the arctic delivery into the Canadian shield via that particularly conveyor/method. There are subtle hints at a AO/NAO decline entering January, so we may also merely relay one form of delivery into another, with perhaps some disrupted winter in between -- perhaps a thaw in early Jan? The other thought in that is that the EPO has been forecast to rise before, only to see the GEFs correct it back down, over the last months ( I have noticed ); and it verified that way (seasonal persistence is factor-able). However, this time the WPO is also mirroring it, however, so it appears the Pac circulation would need to change to some degree. Overall, though, these teleconnector changes are not overwhelmingly large; more skill in determining the pattern "type" takes place when you have larger changes in these domain spaces. As to this weekend... I am not so convinced we won't have a region-wide colder result there. The trends of the operational GFS have been to build more +PP in Ontario and points west in S. Canada. Meanwhile, the frontal drape is darn near by. Keep in mind, shear climo argues it gets difficult to blithely run warm boundaries up to BTV like the GGEM and Euro. These latter model types have a meridonal bias beyond D4 as it is, so correcting for that a little may drop that boundary flatter (which by default means a possible more W-E orientation, farther S...). As is, the 12z version of the GFS is starting to look icy-dicey in Upstate NY to CNE, with contention as to where to place the front over SNE. Lastly, the conditional environs of having a good snow pack may play a roll in modulating lower level thickness should a front get into fight with ageostgrophy. Having said all that ...yeah, it could still warm up. Heh. I'm just not completely sold on how much or if it will. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Firstly, the GEFs teleconnectors suggest some changes lurking ...unsure how profound those will be. The PNA rises through the end of the month ...might go positive for a time, but a substantial enough phase adjustment to suspect more storminess lurks during the week of x-mass. Also, this weekend is less clear in my mind (see below) Meanwhile, the Pac appears to be losing some of the AA phase.. both the WPO and EPO are neutralizing. This "could" herald an end to the arctic delivery into the Canadian shield via that particularly conveyor/method. There are subtle hints at a AO/NAO decline entering January, so we may also merely relay one form of delivery into another, with perhaps some disrupted winter in between -- perhaps a thaw in early Jan? The other thought in that is that the EPO has been forecast to rise before, only to see the GEFs correct it back down, over the last months ( I have noticed ); and it verified that way (seasonal persistence is factor-able). However, this time the WPO is also mirroring it, however, so it appears the Pac circulation would need to change to some degree. Overall, though, these teleconnector changes are not overwhelmingly large; more skill in determining the pattern "type" takes place when you have larger changes in these domain spaces. As to this weekend... I am not so convinced we won't have a region-wide colder result there. The trends of the operational GFS have been to build more +PP in Ontario and points west in S. Canada. Meanwhile, the frontal drape is darn near by. Keep in mind, shear climo argues it gets difficult to blithely run warm boundaries up to BTV like the GGEM and Euro. These latter model types have a meridonal bias beyond D4 as it is, so correcting for that a little may drop that boundary flatter (which by default means a possible more W-E orientation, farther S...). As is, the 12z version of the GFS is starting to look icy-dicey in Upstate NY to CNE, with contention as to where to place the front over SNE. Lastly, the conditional environs of having a good snow pack may play a roll in modulating lower level thickness should a front get into fight with ageostgrophy. Having said all that ...yeah, it could still warm up. Heh. I'm just not completely sold on how much or if it will. Just sayin' Hope your right man.. Even if we can just have a mid 30's and rain scenario..I think we'd take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Hope your right man.. Even if we can just have a mid 30's and rain scenario..I think we'd take it and run "Hope your right..." ? I think you should focus on this part: "Having said all that ...yeah, it could still warm up. Heh. I'm just not completely sold on how much or if it will. Just sayin' " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Firstly, the GEFs teleconnectors suggest some changes lurking ...unsure how profound those will be. The PNA rises through the end of the month ...might go positive for a time, but a substantial enough phase adjustment to suspect more storminess lurks during the week of x-mass. Also, this weekend is less clear in my mind (see below) Meanwhile, the Pac appears to be losing some of the AA phase.. both the WPO and EPO are neutralizing. This "could" herald an end to the arctic delivery into the Canadian shield via that particularly conveyor/method. There are subtle hints at a AO/NAO decline entering January, so we may also merely relay one form of delivery into another, with perhaps some disrupted winter in between -- perhaps a thaw in early Jan? The other thought in that is that the EPO has been forecast to rise before, only to see the GEFs correct it back down, over the last months ( I have noticed ); and it verified that way (seasonal persistence is factor-able). However, this time the WPO is also mirroring it, however, so it appears the Pac circulation would need to change to some degree. Overall, though, these teleconnector changes are not overwhelmingly large; more skill in determining the pattern "type" takes place when you have larger changes in these domain spaces. As to this weekend... I am not so convinced we won't have a region-wide colder result there. The trends of the operational GFS have been to build more +PP in Ontario and points west in S. Canada. Meanwhile, the frontal drape is darn near by. Keep in mind, shear climo argues it gets difficult to blithely run warm boundaries up to BTV like the GGEM and Euro. These latter model types have a meridonal bias beyond D4 as it is, so correcting for that a little may drop that boundary flatter (which by default means a possible more W-E orientation, farther S...). As is, the 12z version of the GFS is starting to look icy-dicey in Upstate NY to CNE, with contention as to where to place the front over SNE. Lastly, the conditional environs of having a good snow pack may play a roll in modulating lower level thickness should a front get into fight with ageostgrophy. Having said all that ...yeah, it could still warm up. Heh. I'm just not completely sold on how much or if it will. Just sayin' I'm betting on the AO and NAO getting more helpful. Odds would suggest they do at some point. This also just feels like a real winter this year that goes wire to wire. What is the impact of that huge storm going across the north atlantic into the UK? Does that dislodge something in the NAO area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm betting on the AO and NAO getting more helpful. Odds would suggest they do at some point. This also just feels like a real winter this year that goes wire to wire. What is the impact of that huge storm going across the north atlantic into the UK? Does that dislodge something in the NAO area? It's really just feeding the Icelandic low -- a feature that when in positive strength phase is consistent with the +NAO. I suspect the low pressure transits through there is more a function of the overall circulation structure forcing cyclone storm tracks. What I find interesting is that the NAO went positive as it's dominant signature very close in time to when the Pacific went into that AA/-WPO/-EPO. I am wondering if the Pac is having some transitory effect ...possibly by forcing R-wave spacing around the hemisphere, such that the NAO has been more than less locked into a negative node (L/W trough). Whatever the cause aside ... the EPO and NAO have a +.3 correlation-coefficients according to the indices matrix, so having us in this -EPO/+NAO orientation for so long is actually defeating to longish odds. Shouldn't really be doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We'll need to watch that front this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We'll need to watch that front this weekend. Certainly bears watching as some interesting things may be happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Certainly bears watching as some interesting things may be happening I still think we are furnaced for a time. That low water content snow will vaporize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 In other news, pattern looks pretty good after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I still think we are furnaced for a time. That low water content snow will vaporize. It looks like if the torch happens it might..might.. be fairly short lived. Interseting though as we've gotten closer models and ens have sagged it south some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It looks like if the torch happens it might..might.. be fairly short lived. Interseting though as we've gotten closer models and ens have sagged it south some This may turn into a Spring back door scenario. The kind where NE MA is stuck in the cold and CT is torched. I could see that and it's modeled as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I still think we are furnaced for a time. That low water content snow will vaporize. The top 4-5 inches is light fluffy, but underneath that is the solid rock glaze from Sunday, and then the frozen ground. Seems like we would have really torch to lose all that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The top 4-5 inches is light fluffy, but underneath that is the solid rock glaze from Sunday, and then the frozen ground. Seems like we would have really torch to lose all that If models are right, it's gone down there. However, I do see some spread in the ensembles...especially nrn MA and srn NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This may turn into a Spring back door scenario. The kind where NE MA is stuck in the cold and CT is torched. I could see that and it's modeled as such. I have a feeling it Could end up over or near NYC/N NJ ..Climo wise that's where it would peg it.. Just keeping it in the mid-upper 30's and foggy/light rain kind of thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I have a feeling it Could end up over or near NYC/N NJ ..Climo wise that's where it would peg it.. Just keeping it in the mid-upper 30's and foggy/light rain kind of thing Well the thing is....it all depends on how strong the s/w is ejecting out of the southwest. As modeled, it's strong and does not care about snow on the ground. But, if it's a bit weaker the front easily could struggle north. But, it's a catch 22. Even if the front is south, you maybe have 1-3" of rain from lift over it. Part of me sees the icing potential possibly into nrn ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Well the thing is....it all depends on how strong the s/w is ejecting out of the southwest. As modeled, it's strong and does not care about snow on the ground. But, if it's a bit weaker the front easily could struggle north. But, it's a catch 22. Even if the front is south, you maybe have 1-3" of rain from lift over it. Part of me sees the icing potential possibly into nrn ORH county. Looked like the 6z GFS sagged it even a bit more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 OT but whqt a beautiful scene this morning! Deep snows, chilly temperatures....winter as it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Thought you guys would appreciate 3-4 inches per hour rates I got on video on Sunday, along with some thunder-snow on video. Here is the video of the snow chase. Huge fan of Frank Sinatra, hope you guys are to. Enjoy! I caught the thunder snow twice, here is the separate video just for that. We also had some insane wind gusts when the band was drifting south at the tail end of it. Had to be over 40 MPH which caused some insane blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 In other news, pattern looks pretty good after Christmas. SE ridge breaking down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 SE ridge breaking down? Not sure it breaks down, but continued ridging out near AK and into the west coast at times. The coldest anomalies might actually be further east near the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Looked like the 6z GFS sagged it even a bit more south It did. Some of the GEFS members are very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It did. Some of the GEFS members are very cold. It's a little odd to me that the GFS is sort of leading the charge on the south sag..usually it doesn't pick up on the cold ooze.. Hopefully it's onto something..but still plenty of time and consternation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It did. Some of the GEFS members are very cold. Could someone link the gefs individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 extreme long shot at this time lead...but maybe coastal peeps can snag a xmas miracle with that cold HP building in N of NE tue/wed and get some OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 extreme long shot at this time lead...but maybe coastal peeps can snag a xmas miracle with that cold HP building in N of NE tue/wed and get some OES. The 06z ensembles have a semblance of something off to the SE too. Not going to lie, this weekend will be a kick in the balls. What are you gonna do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 The 06z ensembles have a semblance of something off to the SE too. Not going to lie, this weekend will be a kick in the balls. What are you gonna do. yeah i saw the ec ens had a weak trough in the means so maybe there's something lurking. just get the cold back in. after today...blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 extreme long shot at this time lead...but maybe coastal peeps can snag a xmas miracle with that cold HP building in N of NE tue/wed and get some OES. Kev says mid 30's this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I like being modeled on the cold side of the boundary, but C NH is still on the edge. AUG will probably be torn a new one. I'd like to see the low level cold modeled stronger in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Days and days of no power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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