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PennMan

Central PA & The Fringes - December 2013 Part III

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Best overperforming clipper I can remember was the one which came through a couple of days after the blizzard of '96. I had just finished digging my car out from the first storm when the clipper hit. We had several inches IIRC, and then we had another foot three days later. What a week!

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Cant remember the year but it was around 6-10 yrs ago.

They were calling for 1-3 with a clipper and when all was said and done we had 8 very fluffy inches.

had to be 30-40:1 ratios...It was the most i have ever seen with a clipper.

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PAZ027-028-049-050-052-056>059-063-065-066-170700-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.131217T0700Z-131217T1500Z/
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-UNION-SNYDER-NORTHUMBERLAND-PERRY-DAUPHIN-
SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...LEWISBURG...
SELINSGROVE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...
HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...YORK...LANCASTER
252 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP
TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

* VISIBILITIES...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES...WITH PERIODS OF
AROUND ONE-HALF OF A MILE VISIBILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

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  • Tonight Snow, mainly after 10pm. Low around 14. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Snow showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

could potentially be more snow for me than the last storm..

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Advisory text for UNV area

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
252 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

.A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
2 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

PAZ017>019-024>026-033-034-170700-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.131217T0500Z-131217T1300Z/
CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-
HUNTINGDON-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...
SOMERSET...BEDFORD
252 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
8 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING UP
TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.

* VISIBILITIES...MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MILES...WITH PERIODS OF
AROUND ONE-HALF OF A MILE VISIBILITY AROUND AND SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK.

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Cant remember the year but it was around 6-10 yrs ago.

They were calling for 1-3 with a clipper and when all was said and done we had 8 very fluffy inches.

had to be 30-40:1 ratios...It was the most i have ever seen with a clipper.

I remember several like that, not necessarily 8 but end up with 5-6

 

Was it this one?:

03_19_2004.gif

 

This one was an "up to an inch" clipper that delivered also: 

 

12_05_2007.gif

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I remember Dec 5, 2005 when we were progged to get 5 - 7" of snow from a clipper at Millersville.  Dry air killed the storm...it took about 4 hours of heavy snow aloft to even get a rough snowflake to the surface and finally we got snow at Millersville...just barely hitting 5".  If it's one thing that worries me with clippers it's dry air.

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With a couple of exceptions, all of the surprise snowfalls or overperformers that I've experienced have been in association with clippers (or screamers or maulers -- northwest-flow-type shortwave troughs).  Keep in mind, of course, that all my winters, except last winter and this one so far, were spent out in the Midwest.  

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AFD is up.  QPF between .15-.2, ratios 15-18:1 expected.

 

Also mentions potential second wave Tuesday night, almost certainly even lighter than the first one though.

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How often does a clipper drop more snow in Lancaster than areas to the west?

 

If the low pressure is  redvelops/deepens on the coast rapidly enough you can maintain the swath of snow all the way across the state. There would still be a minimum of snowfall in locations just off the mountains where downslope plays a factor and also where they might miss out on redevelopment of the precip shield. That is likely why Fulton, Franklin, and Adams Counties in the southern tier are being left out of the advisory..in addition to the advisory areas mostly having a marginal potential of meeting the advisory criteria to begin with. The low pressure is progged to track a bit further north than what would be ideal for a clipper across C-PA, but it was dicussed about in the AFD earlier today about the trough/warm front extending southeast from the low pressure making potential snowfall more like what you would see from the low tracking to the south of PA. 

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I remember several like that, not necessarily 8 but end up with 5-6

 

Was it this one?:

03_19_2004.gif

 

This one was an "up to an inch" clipper that delivered also: 

 

12_05_2007.gif

 

I cant say for sure but i do remember we had alot of snow on the ground that year.

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Final call: "Alberta + Alberto" crack reaches CTP where an unfortunate intern repeats and finds themselves in a world of hell...

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I remember several like that, not necessarily 8 but end up with 5-6

 

Was it this one?:

 

 

This one was an "up to an inch" clipper that delivered also: 

 

 

 

I think the one he's talking about is this one in mid Jan 04 which is one I remember for having an advisory for similar amounts to this one but ended up waking up in the morning to 7-8 inches of pure fluff. Had a look at this one on the Ewall renanalysis page and the -10ºC line at 850mb was right through the middle of the state for this. 

 

post-1507-0-58568400-1387229410_thumb.gi

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I think the one he's talking about is this one in mid Jan 04 which is one I remember for having an advisory for similar amounts to this one but ended up waking up in the morning to 7-8 inches of pure fluff. Had a look at this one on the Ewall renanalysis page and the -10ºC line at 850mb was right through the middle of the state for this. 

 

attachicon.gif01_15_2004.gif

That was part of just a ridiculous run for us, early Jan-mid Feb. We had like a 2 foot snowcover.

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If the low pressure is redvelops/deepens on the coast rapidly enough you can maintain the swath of snow all the way across the state. There would still be a minimum of snowfall in locations just off the mountains where downslope plays a factor and also where they might miss out on redevelopment of the precip shield. That is likely why Fulton, Franklin, and Adams Counties in the southern tier are being left out of the advisory..in addition to the advisory areas mostly having a marginal potential of meeting the advisory criteria to begin with. The low pressure is progged to track a bit further north than what would be ideal for a clipper across C-PA, but it was dicussed about in the AFD earlier today about the trough/warm front extending southeast from the low pressure making potential snowfall more like what you would see from the low tracking to the south of PA.

That makes sense...I do believe that most clippers have secondary development too far to our east to affect us, but not necessarily all the time.

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