CAD storms thread.

[dsaur]

Either the cold is coming, or it's not.  If it is, then everything moves back south, if not then this makes sense.  But pushing the low up into that big high just seems a little odd, is all.  That cold should be thick and hard to move, thus over running, not buckling to the rain like Goofy is showing.  But I guess if the high moves way up there, it makes some kind of sense.  Still, I don't think things are well sorted yet, lol.  T

[Shawn]

I feel like those Euro maps are showing ice as snowfall/mixed bag.

[jburns]

Either the cold is coming, or it's not.  If it is, then everything moves back south, if not then this makes sense.  But pushing the low up into that big high just seems a little odd, is all.  That cold should be thick and hard to move, thus over running, not buckling to the rain like Goofy is showing.  But I guess if the high moves way up there, it makes some kind of sense.  Still, I don't think things are well sorted yet, lol.  T

They are not.   Personally I am still trying to absorb the fact that a met like DT used the term, "do point".

 

"*** The temperature can be 32° but if you do point is 14 and the precipitation starts your saturation temperature ( WET BULB) is in the middle 20s and thus you get your ice or snow."

[NCCatawba]

My thoughts after the euro.

 

Up to 9 hours of freezing rain...best places for this would be Boone, North Wilkesboro, Mount Airy and Reidsville. Best chance of warning criteria here.

 

Then solid freezing rain advisory criteria for Hickory, Winston, High Point and Greensboro.

 

 

The powerful resolution of the euro picks up on some of these cold pockets nicely...north-east of Hendersonville and in the Brushy Mountains. The foothill counties north of here may be the last to warm up.

 

 

*All subject to change based on 1-2 degree differences in the next four days. 

[Heisy]

GFS @ 180 hours is showing, what I believe to be a better setup for a possible 2nd storm, positively tilted trough, good confluence, strong HP, weaker SE ridge...If this shortwave is for real I'd be more interested in this one going forward for a better potential. 

 

[DaculaWeather]

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_model_diag_disco.php

 

DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE

THE NAM/GFS (NCEP) CONTINUE TO ADJUST TOWARD THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC
(NON NCEP) WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE NON NCEP MODELS HAVE NOT MADE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...AT LEAST NOT TO SHOW ANYTHING LIKE THE NCEP
CAMP.

GIVEN DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...AND THE NON NCEP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
MORE CORRECT VERIFYING THROUGH TONIGHT...WE FEEL BETTER GOING
AGAINST THE NCEP CLUSTER. WITHIN THE NON NCEP CLUSTER...THE 00Z
UKMET HAS SPED UP THE TIMING OF ITS COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS ENOUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z UKMET...SO THAT IT IS NOW
INCLUDED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC
REPRESENTS A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

[Pilotwx]

Remember there is a battle going on between the SE ridge and the Cold. Since we are in the transition zone or fringe area we could go either way. Right now I would say the models are picking up on the SE ridge and over doing it , think about how warm its going to be this week, then a flip of the switch it going over to freezing rain, sleet, snow . I can see why the warmer solution is coming in but give it a couple more days as the cold air is sampled in the US then we can get a better idea of how strong the high pressure to the north is .

[FallsLake]

GFS @ 180 hours is showing, what I believe to be a better setup for a possible 2nd storm, positively tilted trough, good confluence, strong HP, weaker SE ridge...If this shortwave is for real I'd be more interested in this one going forward for a better potential. 

 

180.gif

Saw that as well on the 6z. This is a change from the last run. I would think we will have the same problem moving forward as we have with this (early next week)event; basically a fight between the SE ridge and the arctic high. At this point, somebody could get two winter events in the next week and a half or get two rain events with a frontal passage.   

[NCCatawba]

GSP is going with the GFS. There is nothing to hold the high to the north.

[Pilotwx]

5 days away always takes the storm away. Hold tight until 3 days before.

[Brick Tamland]

Saw that as well on the 6z. This is a change from the last run. I would think we will have the same problem moving forward as we have with this (early next week)event; basically a fight between the SE ridge and the arctic high. At this point, somebody could get two winter events in the next week and a half or get two rain events with a frontal passage.   

 

With the way things have gone here the last two winters, it'll be cold rain both times. Just dandy.

[FallsLake]

5 days away always takes the storm away. Hold tight until 3 days before.

We need the models to trend back colder soon(I think by 0z tonight). The models have gotten better and three days out (with a warm look) may be the nail in the coffin.

[Brick Tamland]

Do the Euro and GFS models ever agree with each other more than a couple days out when it comes to a winter event? Also, I know people used to call the Euro the Dr. No because it was the one that used to always say no snow for you, while the GFS showed it, and the Euro usually was right. Now it seems they have reversed and the Euro shows more potential for a winter event, while the GFS says no, and the GFS has ended up being the right one lately.

[FallsLake]

With the way things have gone here the last two winters, it'll be cold rain both times. Just dandy.

We're still early in the season. If we had the same setup in January, the air would be colder and the highs just a little stronger. Still might not get anything but the odds would be better.

[NCCatawba]

WxSouth changed the winter storm map to exclude NC. Still mentions northern NC tho. I agree with this. Nothing to prevent the cold air from being transit.

[Pilotwx]

Not near my computer what is the actual high pressure reading versus the computer model forecast for right now? Thanks

[Brick Tamland]

We're still early in the season. If we had the same setup in January, the air would be colder and the highs just a little stronger. Still might not get anything but the odds would be better.

 

I know it's early, but we said the same thing the last two winters. Just seems there is always something to throw a hitch into things the past few years.

[Cold Rain]

I know it's early, but we said the same thing the last two winters. Just seems there is always something to throw a hitch into things the past few years.

 

This is the south freaking east.  The hitch is the norm.  The hitch will usually happen.

[Brick Tamland]

This is the south freaking east.  The hitch is the norm.  The hitch will usually happen.

 

But not usually as much as it has the past two years and counting.

[buckeyefan1]

Michelle, I've had on and off dripping drizzle, and one good shower today.  Didn't give me but .13, but it soaked everything by being around all day.  So, I'll take it.  I always look to the precip first, then worry about the cold, and if precip picks up on the maps as  the week progresses, and moves back south, then someone will have a chance over the weekend, and if not, then some needed rain will fall somewhere north....  as a consolation prize for not winning a hell zstorm, lol.   But who knows?    Might be sunny by the time it gets cold. Me, I'd just like to see the rain coming back south for the main threat. Isn't looking as juicy as it was down here.  And still looks like the closest ice to Ga could be far northern Ala, if the cold banks up against the spine of the mountains over there. T

Not a drop has fallen imby  I do have a chance of sprinkles all week, so hopefully a few drops can find their way here. 

[Southern Track]

But not usually as much as it has the past two years and counting.

When we had the White Christmas and the big snow two weeks later in the SE, the indices were perfect or us I believe. +PNA with a good -NAO and -AO. We haven't been close to that the last two winters.

[dsaur]

They are not.   Personally I am still trying to absorb the fact that a met like DT used the term, "do point".

 

"*** The temperature can be 32° but if you do point is 14 and the precipitation starts your saturation temperature ( WET BULB) is in the middle 20s and thus you get your ice or snow."

Things do point to model obfuscation   As to whether they do point to the dew point, is beyond the point at this point.  I think we'll be pointed in the right direction come Wed, or Thurs.  It's early times, is my point, but things could be pointing to a point in the future for our huge, big storm, as has been pointed out.  T

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I'm on my phone and can't see the maps real good, but to me it looks like the 12Z GFS is colder for the CAD areas.  Can someone confirm or correct me?

[burgertime]

I'm on my phone and can't see the maps real good, but to me it looks like the 12Z GFS is colder for the CAD areas.  Can someone confirm or correct me?

 

It was, it has a 1036 high in pretty good position but scoots it off pretty quickly. Still looked better than the last few runs. 

[tazaroo]

I'm on my phone and can't see the maps real good, but to me it looks like the 12Z GFS is colder for the CAD areas.  Can someone confirm or correct me?

I noticed no one was posting figuring it was bad but when I looked just now, it did look colder and with a stronger High pressure staying in place longer but I'm no expert.  Hopefully its a good sign and the GFS is finally starting to see the arctic air mass and will continue to trend colder. 

[packbacker]

GGEM still icey for the CAD regions of NC/VA.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

GGEM still icey for the CAD regions of NC/VA.

 

Yes indeed, a 1042 high in PA is not too shabby.

[NCSNOW]

GGEM still icey for the CAD regions of NC

And GFS trending colder at the surface for the second run in a row. Got some Vodka cold coming early-mid next week.

[tarheelwx]

Any word on the Euro? Colder, warmer, drier, wetter?

TW

[WSNC]

Any word on the Euro? Colder, warmer, drier, wetter?

TW

 

Looks about the same to me.  Still showing freezing rain in n nc cad areas Sunday.  Very cold toward the end of the run.