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CAD storms thread.

dsaur

By dsaur,
in Southeastern States

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

This is a classic cad setup and we know how those goes around here, the spell ice storm more times than not!

Actually with the High pushing farther north its not a favorable set up here in the upstate at all. Been there and done that it will have to be in better position than what's modeled today. It possibly could change over the next couple of days but going off today's run I'd say no dice for the upstate.

I'll let the CAD experts take over from here they can explain in better detail...Lookout or Cad or one of the gurus feel free to carry on.

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dsaur

dsaur

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Shawn, I'm a bit worried about you, my friend!  One thing I've learned is not to let the zmonster sense your fear.  Ever.  Once it knows you would prefer anything but that, if will seek you out.  We've got a super cold high, colder than in a good while, we've got the potential for classic cad, meaning reinforced, we've got overrunning, and in waves...so the cards appear to be approaching the table, and it's best you stand firm, chest out, and go, ha, ha, zrain, you don't scare me.  Then get you a generator, because it already knows where you stand, and I stand, and they seek me out, and probably will you too, lol. 

  I've actually been wanting a z storm, on the mild side, half inch or so, to shred my trees...been wanting if since 2000, but it's been taunting me, holding back, threatening.  I got a small one, with some sleet in 05, and it was great sledding, but no tree top, dead wood shredder, so it's way over due, and like YellowStone, when it blows it will be blowing chunks :)  Soooo...I've been letting it be known how I hate zrain, and don't want it here, in order to bring it on.  You, on the other hand, need to hope that high stays north, instead of coming back south on later runs, as I suspect it will, so you need to bluff, and pretend you aren't worried one bit, and that might push the high off you, lol.  Naaawwww....it's too late for either of us, if not this time, then the next, or the one after..it's coming!!  Just look at the maps... highs and precip as far as the eye can see, lol. T

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WxKnurd

WxKnurd

Posted
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I'm model watching from Ohio til the 11th, going to be an interesting weekend up here and back home. Like others have said, a classic cad setup has been sorely missed, though with a devastating ice storm possible with this particular one you have to be careful what you wish for. Where the high sets up, strength and how long it stays put will have to be watched carefully (but you already knew that !)

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FLweather

FLweather

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Let's please try to remember that this is 6+ days away. Don't hang your hat on anything.

But this hasn't been your typical year either.

 

 

Which freezing rain events are always hard to predict.... but considering the time of year we've already had two "fantasy" events to occur. The amount of zr that has been been dipicted is rather disturbing....

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
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It's nice to have an Arctic Outbreak just to our north and get a cold overrunning rain. :raining:  I'm pretty sure we will need some blocking to hold that High in place? If you want ICE? And from what I've read not much blocking going on??? I could be wrong again? So I'm not to excited about our chances of major icing event right now! If they still show strong CAD Thursday then I'm all in....

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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Just taking a peak at the euro ens. Speaking specifically of the areas just east of the apps from the nc foothills up towards roanoke. This would be a .5 to .75 ice accretion event.

I'll take it! lol.   By the way IF this occurs when is it suppose to start? I'm going to be in Pigeon Forge this weekend leaving Sunday morning coming home 81 to 77 to Mt.Airy NC

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Shawn

Shawn

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Shawn, I'm a bit worried about you, my friend!  One thing I've learned is not to let the zmonster sense your fear.  Ever.  Once it knows you would prefer anything but that, if will seek you out.  We've got a super cold high, colder than in a good while, we've got the potential for classic cad, meaning reinforced, we've got overrunning, and in waves...so the cards appear to be approaching the table, and it's best you stand firm, chest out, and go, ha, ha, zrain, you don't scare me.  Then get you a generator, because it already knows where you stand, and I stand, and they seek me out, and probably will you too, lol. 

  I've actually been wanting a z storm, on the mild side, half inch or so, to shred my trees...been wanting if since 2000, but it's been taunting me, holding back, threatening.  I got a small one, with some sleet in 05, and it was great sledding, but no tree top, dead wood shredder, so it's way over due, and like YellowStone, when it blows it will be blowing chunks :)  Soooo...I've been letting it be known how I hate zrain, and don't want it here, in order to bring it on.  You, on the other hand, need to hope that high stays north, instead of coming back south on later runs, as I suspect it will, so you need to bluff, and pretend you aren't worried one bit, and that might push the high off you, lol.  Naaawwww....it's too late for either of us, if not this time, then the next, or the one after..it's coming!!  Just look at the maps... highs and precip as far as the eye can see, lol. T

 

Great post man!  I just really think it's too warm and will stay that way this far South.  If I'm wrong well then, "damn the bad luck." is what I say.

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Shawn

Shawn

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I have 8 100yr old pines 10ft from the house .. Ever see a pine explode in a ice storm? Not pretty!

 

You're very lucky lightening hasn't taken them out at 100ft.  A friend of mine's house got hit by that recently.. and it was horrible.

 

Anyway, I along with a couple others are getting a tad off topic. <3  Lets wait for the 00z runs and see what they have to show. :) 

 

84 hr NAM vs 18Z GFS are worlds apart.  Yes; I know it's the 84 HR Nam.

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

Just taking a peak at the euro ens. Speaking specifically of the areas just east of the apps from the nc foothills up towards roanoke. This would be a .5 to .75 ice accretion event.

I know some are rooting for this, but that would be quite damaging to the areas that pick up that much ice accretion. I have the generator ready if I need it..

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

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You're very lucky lightening hasn't taken them out at 100ft.  A friend of mine's house got hit by that recently.. and it was horrible.

 

Anyway, I along with a couple others are getting a tad off topic. <3  Lets wait for the 00z runs and see what they have to show. :)

 

84 hr NAM vs 18Z GFS are worlds apart.  Yes; I know it's the 84 HR Nam.

To the first bolded.....thanks :)  Now that I've moved 2 pages of banter where it belongs, lets keep it on topic folks  ;) 

 

 

To the second bolded......  :lol:  I prefer the DGEX at this range  :P 

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Shawn

Shawn

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To be expected from the GFS as it is on an island all by itself in regards to the other models.

 

NOT an attack on you by any means; just a general consensus by me.  Maybe the GFS is right, and this won't be so extreme?  So many times certain models have been "off their rocker" and their solutions have been true during many Winter events.  Funny how we never talk about how much the model of choice weren't off their rockers when they verify and it ends up rain.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

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NOT an attack on you by any means; just a general consensus by me.  Maybe the GFS is right, and this won't be so extreme?  So many times certain models have been "off their rocker" and their solutions have been true during many Winter events.  Funny how we never talk about how much the model of choice weren't off their rockers when they verify and it ends up rain.

 

I understand, it's just hard to believe the GFS at this point when the EURO and Canadian agree on something totally different.  I guess it's possible GFS scores the coup but I feel that it would be a major upset to score one on the Euro AND Canadian.

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Shawn

Shawn

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I understand, it's just hard to believe the GFS at this point when the EURO and Canadian agree on something totally different.  I guess it's possible GFS scores the coup but I feel that it would be a major upset to score one on the Euro AND Canadian.

 

I understand your point whole heart.. the GFS has already lost to the Euro earlier this year.. it's due to beat it though.. and the way everything looks synoptically; NC will get ice from what I see.  Regardless if the GFS says so or not.  How much and how far South is another question.

 

I can say the GFS was showing almost a 2 inch ZR storm here in SC not too long ago.  To Hell if that will verify.  Definitely expect it in you guy's area though.  Just not so extreme so far.  The only thing I know about the Canadian is that is has a bias towards being more cold at the surface.  So if you take a Euro/CMC blend + GFS.. It still is ice.. but not nearly as brutal.

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NCCatawba

NCCatawba

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I understand, it's just hard to believe the GFS at this point when the EURO and Canadian agree on something totally different.  I guess it's possible GFS scores the coup but I feel that it would be a major upset to score one on the Euro AND Canadian.

 

CMC support doesn't mean much its way too cold way too often. If the EURO trends 1-2 degrees warmer over the next 5 days then we have a GFS solution.

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