metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 Guys be patient. February will produce. http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/6809/16k2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Hmm interesting. It's that cold up there. Here is the guy that we know here. http://us.123rf.com/450wm/roboriginal/roboriginal1211/roboriginal121100044/16483568-happy-joyful-and-cheerful-santa-claus-on-summer-holiday-jumping-in-shallow-water-at-tropical-beach.jpg This upcoming pattern change is crap. It's just going to be in and out and the SE ridge is going to just pop right back up. The first half of January will be shot, and we'll spend the second half of the month chasing another mirage of a pattern change into February. And by the time it finally does change, we'll be dealing with a warm ground and a high sun angle and have to hope for night snow so it'll be actual snow and not rain. And we'll have to hope that it doesn't snow too early in the night so the warm ground doesn't eat it all up before we can wake up and see it. Or we could try to stay up late and see it start, only to squint at the radar for hours just hoping beyond hope that the stationary precip echoes will inch east at some point. Yep, another winter down the tubes. Merry flippin Christmas. Do you feel better now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Do you feel better now? Humbug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 How are the Euro monthlies verifying so far? Remember this from September. December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO. January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO. February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO. Entire US would be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 This upcoming pattern change is crap. It's just going to be in and out and the SE ridge is going to just pop right back up. The first half of January will be shot, and we'll spend the second half of the month chasing another mirage of a pattern change into February. And by the time it finally does change, we'll be dealing with a warm ground and a high sun angle and have to hope for night snow so it'll be actual snow and not rain. And we'll have to hope that it doesn't snow too early in the night so the warm ground doesn't eat it all up before we can wake up and see it. Or we could try to stay up late and see it start, only to squint at the radar for hours just hoping beyond hope that the stationary precip echoes will inch east at some point. Yep, another winter down the tubes. Merry flippin Christmas. A little too much egg nog? There, there.... Maybe Santa will make it all better tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 ^^ Well, it gravely missed the -NAO call for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 A little too much egg nog? There, there.... Maybe Santa will make it all better tomorrow.... Haha! Maybe he'll throw us a mercy block over Greenland for a T+300 frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Haha! Maybe he'll throw us a mercy block over Greenland for a T+300 frame. You acting crazy. Next thing you will tell us FoothillsNC came back and posted in the pattern thread with an amazing write up. Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 You acting crazy. Next thing you will tell us FoothillsNC came back and posted in the pattern thread with an amazing write up. Sure. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 You acting crazy. Next thing you will tell us FoothillsNC came back and posted in the pattern thread with an amazing write up. Sure. Ok, ok, I'll take one step back from the cliff, since Robert posted and it's Christmas Eve and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Haha! Maybe he'll throw us a mercy block over Greenland for a T+300 frame. It's a Dallas Cowboy pattern. No blocking in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Look for a D16 GFS Superstorm Christmas Miracle tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Not that anyone cares this morning! This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 251009ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0957Z WED DEC 25 2013NCEP IS HAVING PROBLEMS SUBMITTING JOBS TO THE SUPERCOMPUTERWHICH IS CAUSING THE 06 GFS TO RUN LATE AS WELL AS OTHER JOBS.WE ARE INVESTIGATING.SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Merry Christmas to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 what about a pattern change mid Feb? what do they call that? fabolous feb? december to remember, january to rock, etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 It's a Dallas Cowboy pattern. No blocking in sight. So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Something is screwed up. NCEP and Meteostar are not the same maps for the same model run????? Maybe I have been in the eggnog too much but NCEP 06z GFS run is showing some mega cold in the 240h timeframe 850's <-20C and Meteostar is showing -12C at the same time. ?????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Something is screwed up. NCEP and Meteostar are not the same maps for the same model run????? Maybe I have been in the eggnog too much but NCEP 06z GFS run is showing some mega cold in the 240h timeframe 850's <-20C and Meteostar is showing -12C at the same time. ?????? MeteoStar is coordinated correctly from what I see. This is what is officially termed in the wx biz and repeatedly on this board as "stupid cold". Per MeteoStar at 6Z of 1/4/14, RDU gets down to a stupid cold -25C at 850 and ATL a stupid cold -21C!!!!! Savannah gets to a stupid cold -15C! The -21C at ATL would tie the alltime record cold 850 (records back to ~1948-1950). I suspect that -25C would be RDU's coldest though I don't know their record coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Maybe this will be a home run for the models, and this cold could be modeled correctly?! Remember a few summers ago, the models were showing " stupid " heat? All time record highs and such, and it was right. I don't remember how far out the models caught on to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I wonder about comparing model tendencies from over a decade ago Larry?? Surely these models have been tweaked over the years. I do seem to recall a GFS cold bias over the last few years too though, maybe not to the degree of that specific case mentioned by Larry. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Merry Christmas to ALL! (Yes, even Wildre, Wilkesdude aka NCCatawba, metalicwx366 and Brick) Ice and Snow for all in 2014! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I wonder about comparing model tendencies from over a decade ago Larry?? Surely these models have been tweaked over the years. I do seem to recall a GFS cold bias over the last few years too though, maybe not to the degree of that specific case mentioned by Larry. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, the cold bias is not nearly as bad now as it was in 2001-2. However, the question asked was whether anyone has seen colder runs of the GFS. In my opinion, those runs would count. Regardless, as I mentioned, I vaguely recall at ATL a couple of GFS runs down to around -23 to -24C at 850 well after that winter. Also, I clearly recall several runs with below zero at two meters at ATL. This one is "only" down to 3 there. This run is at 14 at Savannah. I'm nearly certain there have been several runs in the single digits there at two meters over the last 3-7 years or so. So, this is not the coldest run for at least GA and almost certainly not for NC. However, it is stil in the stupid cold run category! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 i didnt get nothin for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 i didnt get nothin for christmas So what did you get then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 So what did you get then? not even coal.guess santa forgot me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 not even coal.guess santa forgot me. He was probably trying to toughen you up for your presidential campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Brrr.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Brrr.. Epic cold + epic nor'easter at 300+ hrs? I'd go to Vegas with that and put it all on black! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Steve Brule Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Not that anyone cares this morning! This alert was generated by the National Weather Service EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network) from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server. NOUS42 KWNO 251009 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0957Z WED DEC 25 2013 NCEP IS HAVING PROBLEMS SUBMITTING JOBS TO THE SUPERCOMPUTER WHICH IS CAUSING THE 06 GFS TO RUN LATE AS WELL AS OTHER JOBS. WE ARE INVESTIGATING. SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Merry Christmas to everyone! tree_final_900x1200.jpg Now thats a beautiful Christmas tree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 This upcoming pattern change is crap. It's just going to be in and out and the SE ridge is going to just pop right back up. The first half of January will be shot, and we'll spend the second half of the month chasing another mirage of a pattern change into February. And by the time it finally does change, we'll be dealing with a warm ground and a high sun angle and have to hope for night snow so it'll be actual snow and not rain. And we'll have to hope that it doesn't snow too early in the night so the warm ground doesn't eat it all up before we can wake up and see it. Or we could try to stay up late and see it start, only to squint at the radar for hours just hoping beyond hope that the stationary precip echoes will inch east at some point. Yep, another winter down the tubes. Merry flippin Christmas. Grinch, Scrooge...you're just issed because the weather gods didn't conspire to give you everlasting fame once more How much everlasting fame does one person need? If it hurts that bad we an call the up coming sleetmageddon Cr's and Tony's Storm. I'm easy on the fame stuff...all those cameras catching you picking your nose, and slappin' Bob. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dexter fishpaw Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Thanks to an air compressor, pressure washer and some understanding neighbors, we ended up with a few inches of snow at our house. Merry Christmas everyone! - Clint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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