Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Here's the historical probs. Seems like this year has a higher than average chance based on the pattern, but as we know that can always change with one weenie dressed up as the Grinch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Depends on how mid month turns out. Hope the euro is wrong, because if it's not, then I don't like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Here's the historical probs. Seems like this year has a higher than average chance based on the pattern, but as we know that can always change with one weenie dressed up as the Grinch +NAO FTW per ensembles, although I honestly wouldn't mind a coating to 2" tops on Christmas. I don't think anybody wants a dry ground on this day. The more I think of it I think I'm actually speaking for all of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Here's the historical probs. Seems like this year has a higher than average chance based on the pattern, but as we know that can always change with one weenie dressed up as the Grinch Hartford has a surprisingly high percentage of Christmas mornings with at least an inch of snow on the ground. 61% (compared to 54% for ORH, 46% for PVD, and 24% for BOS). If you really want to weenie out, an older Hartford observing site (not BDL) had 28" snow depth on 12/25/45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Hartford has a surprisingly high percentage of Christmas mornings with at least an inch of snow on the ground. 61% (compared to 54% for ORH, 46% for PVD, and 24% for BOS). If you really want to weenie out, an older Hartford observing site (not BDL) had 28" snow depth on 12/25/45. That is surprising - I wouldn't have thought it was that high. I thought it was closer to 50% but perhaps that was older data. Are those based on 30 year averages or all time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The ORH number seems low and the BDL number seems high to me. How in the world does BDL beat ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 That is surprising - I wouldn't have thought it was that high. I thought it was closer to 50% but perhaps that was older data. Are those based on 30 year averages or all time? That must be all time. In the current normals period it's only happened six times. I don't know where the 61% came from as BDL's threaded climate record shows 59 Christmases out of 108 with at least one inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 That must be all time. In the current normals period it's only happened six times. I don't know where the 61% came from as BDL's threaded climate record shows 59 Christmases out of 108 with at least one inch on the ground. Yeah that makes more sense. Those number don't seem to completely jive just knowing climo alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The ORH number seems low and the BDL number seems high to me. How in the world does BDL beat ORH? Maybe missing data? But as it stands in the official climate record, it's definitely lower than BDL. ORH shows 45 white Christmases out of 121. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 it only counts as a white xmas if the snow falls on xmas IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The early returns on the pattern around that time frame are not at all encouraging. I'd bet against it. I don't think this is a going to be a gradient '"lock down" the likes of Dec 2007, and 2008....more of just a transient window of opportunity centered on the 2nd week of the month. Don't think that this month snows a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 it only counts as a white xmas if the snow falls on xmas IMO No. Snow on the ground on Christmas day. 1" or 80% ground coverage. So a few flakes falling between 2:00am and 6:00am that no one sees with no coverage after it stops is o.k.? It's almost impossible to thread that needle of snow falling on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 if the ground is White..it's a White Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 it only counts as a white xmas if the snow falls on xmas IMO I've just about seen it all as a winter weather enthusiast, but the one feat that still eludes me is an actual, bona fide snow event on X-mas eve/day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 No. Snow on the ground on Christmas day. 1" or 80% ground coverage. So a few flakes falling between 2:00am and 6:00am that no one sees with no coverage after it stops is o.k.? It's almost impossible to thread that needle of snow falling on Christmas. no. snow that falls xmas day and accumulates 1" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I don't think he was debating the actual definition verbatim, but rather expressing the sentiment that a crusty, vestigial inch doesn't do as much for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I've just about seen it all as a winter weather enthusiast, but the one feat that still eludes me is an actual, bona fide snow event on X-mas eve/day. what did you get in 02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 what did you get in 02? That is the one caveat.....it started during the day on xmas, and we ended up with about 5", before a transition to sleet and a dry slot ensued. Technically, that fits the bill, but the glow was dimmed for me by the fact that what could have been a huge event was so heavily tainted...and the timing was off a good 12-18 hours. That is the closest I've come, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 That is the one caveat.....it started during the day on xmas, and we ended up with about 5", before a transition to sleet and dry slot ensued. Technically, that fits the bill, but the glow was dimmed for me by the fact that what could have been a huge event was so heavily tainted...and the timing was off a good 12-18 hours. That is the closest I've come, though. I agree...I can't recall a true event like that as well. Kind of ironic that the one, true holiday snow occurred during a time where the stars need to line up for snow...Thanksgiving 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 My long range weenie outlook is actually for a possible return to more favorable wx around that time should we relax. That's about a WAG as you'll find, but there is a little science behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I agree...I can't recall a true event like that as well. Kind of ironic that the one, true holiday snow occurred during a time where the stars need to line up for snow...Thanksgiving 1989. Never forget that....was living down the other end of town, right on the Reading line....had just turned 9 YO, and distinctly remember working up an appetite shoveling the walk way just prior to dinner...too lazy to combat the entirety of the driveway....I was a porker in those days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 My long range weenie outlook is actually for a possible return to more favorable wx around that time should we relax. That's about a WAG as you'll find, but there is a little science behind it. Outties crossed. Someone should muster the courage to stray from the traditional conformity to society, and replace that crusty, 'ole archaic, torching star atop the tree with a weenie..... just standing tall, upright, and unabated....a beacon of weenie hope in the face of an unfavorable Atlantic, as we carry on in our crusade for that elusive yuletide KU. The glow of the lights from the tree below just riding right up the merry shaft, tinsel lining the base.....Kev....Bueller?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Outties crossed. Someone should muster the courage to stray from the traditional conformity to society, and replace that crusty, 'ole archaic, torching star atop the tree with a weenie..... just standing tall, upright, and unabated....a beacon of weenie hope in the face of an unfavorable Atlantic, as we carry on in our crusade for that elusive yuletide KU. The glow of the lights from the tree below just riding right up the merry shaft, tinsel lining the base.....Kev....Bueller?? I think they may have something like that in the adult novelty store down the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I vote no white Xmas in Boston, Providence or down this way. Tolland/Will/Ryan's about a 30% chance. Slightly below average. Fear the cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I vote no white Xmas in Boston, Providence or down this way. Tolland/Will/Ryan's about a 30% chance. Slightly below average. Fear the cutter. Agreed....I'd place myself into that 30% slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I'd like to see something like 2002 or even 1966, which was before my time. In '02 I was at my mother's house in St. Louis. The snow ripped on Christmas Eve, eventually piling up to 9" at her house. On December 26th, I flew up to Boston and then down to ACK where they were still being buffeted by the residual clearing wind. No snow otg at ACK from what I recall. Hell, from my years on ACK I only recall snow falling on Christmas Day once and that was in 1993 when that Arctic front came through. In '95 we had about an inch of snow otg for a white Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 it only counts as a white xmas if the snow falls on xmas IMO only you, only you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I would argue Boston white xmas chance are more near 10%, just going off memories in my 22 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I would argue Boston white xmas chance are more near 10%, just going off memories in my 22 years 1995/6/7/00/02/03/05/07/08/09/10/12 More than 10%...unless I'm off on most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 1995/6/7/00/02/03/05/07/08/09/10/12 More than 10%...unless I'm off on most. 1966 living in SRI heavy snow to sleet to rain, biggest bummer until ULL magic dropped 4 inches of Christmas sled magic. I remember the sinking feeling in the gut, Scooter like PTSD from that one but saved by the bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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