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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion


CAD_Wedge_NC

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Yeah 12Z much better look at a storm.  However it's cold chasing moisture verbatim.  I'm not sure what we need to look at root for anymore.  The storm's there, it's just not pulling any cold air into east of the mountains.  Probably gets nice and cold after the storm too!! Warm/wet.....cold!

 

 

faaEk1Ml.png

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Bastardi now concerned about a problem showing up in the 8 to 12 day period that would bring warmth back into the East

Subscribers will want to give it a read.

My feeling is mid January we will be looking for the last 30 days of true winter to deliver.

We have had little below 0c 850hpa temperatures to dig southward into NC so far with any staying power. The escape chute to the NE is wide open.

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Yeah 12Z much better look at a storm.  However it's cold chasing moisture verbatim.  I'm not sure what we need to look at root for anymore.  The storm's there, it's just not pulling any cold air into east of the mountains.  Probably gets nice and cold after the storm too!! Warm/wet.....cold!

At 168, there's a little snow breaking out in NC and VA. Cold coming in as the system develops off the coast.

post-987-0-61950800-1388161751_thumb.gif

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Yeah 12Z much better look at a storm.  However it's cold chasing moisture verbatim.  I'm not sure what we need to look at root for anymore.  The storm's there, it's just not pulling any cold air into east of the mountains.  Probably gets nice and cold after the storm too!! Warm/wet.....cold!

 

 

faaEk1Ml.png

 

 

From my layman's perspective...the GFS needs to lose the first low it develops around IN/IL at hour 132. That thing has got to go if we are to have a chance. To me, that thing looks spurious as it is, but I suppose time will tell.

 

f132.gif

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At 168, there's a little snow breaking out in NC and VA. Cold coming in as the system develops off the coast.

attachicon.giff168.gif

 

Yeah, that's a Raleigh east type of signature so congrats to you!! Charlotte and west is usually out of the game by the time it gets to the coast.  We're still early, but I'd like to see our ridge sharpen up. 

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What's a paste bomb?

I am wondering if the next 7 days is our opportunity to score before we have to cycle through another re-shuffle to get into a good pattern.  I liked the Euro ensemble look, but these OP's are really struggling with HUGE run to run changes.

 

As for paste bomb........It was Franklin's term..............I am guessing it's a wind whipped snow while temps hover around 32/33 that sticks to absolutely EVERYTHING, but you'd have to ask him for sure.

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12z GFS builds a signifcant -AO this run.

Unfortunately the Atlantic is crap, and has been for some time, doesn't look like that will be changing anytime soon either. Until it gets better we are going to be dependent on the pacific and begging for 1-2" events. The GEFS members for the 1/3 event were not great, a lot had a primary to the north which we can't have.

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The 12Z Euro per the 132 hour map, looks to be a close call to a good setup for 1/2-3. We do have a Miller A then. Will it dampen out or get the moisture to the SE. We'll see! Regardless, it is a nice step in the right direction!

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About to get warm after the PV erodes.  looking at the models. I see nothing exciting winter precip-wise for non-mtn/foothills locations in NC.

I think we need to get something next week or we're looking at the mid to late January (at least) for our next wintery threat. The PNA now looks bad in the LR with a decidedly negative look. As others have stated the AO still looks good but that will not help the SE without the PNA or NAO on our side.   

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As we wait for the EURO...DT is touting the differences between the OP GFS with its ensembles. He's going all in, it seems, on a snow storm for NC/VA Jan. 2-3.

 

Doesn't sound like it. He has "Maybe" in big font, bold, color red, followed by "1st chance of the season still a ways to go". We don't even have DT at this point.

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The 12Z Euro per the 132 hour map, looks to be a close call to a good setup for 1/2-3. We do have a Miller A then. Will it dampen out or get the moisture to the SE. We'll see! Regardless, it is a nice step in the right direction!

144 looks nice, 1041 H in Wisconsin, and lower pressures along the gulf coast south of Louisana.

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Doesn't sound like it. He has "Maybe" in big font, bold, color red, followed by "1st chance of the season still a ways to go". We don't even have DT at this point.

 

Just reading between the lines...which is important to do with DT, because he then says things like this (quoted from the comments section): "what u see and read here wont be on any TV weather for 3 days or more.."

 

In any case, what he is saying about the ensembles has been said by other respected mets plus our own Larry.

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144 looks nice, 1041 H in Wisconsin, and lower pressures along the gulf coast south of Louisana.

 

It never made it further north than the southern Gulf coast states because of westerly 500 mb flow instead of WSW  flow, but this is the best Euro op. run yet and a close call. QPF from this very weak Miller A is quite plentiful with 1-3" over the N GOM as well as over SE TX, LA, far SW MS, and parts of N FL. We need to keep watching 1/2-3.

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