packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 DT is going to go nuts with this run. The low really deepens to, 990ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yes, thanks for the play-by-play, folks. I probably shouldn't be, but I'm actually a little excited now... Flakes will be flying verbatim next week east of the mountains in NC with two different opportunities. We should be happy. DT is posting good info from the 0z NAM...and the 0z GFS ensembles that look encouraging....possibly more than just token flakes. We will see. Goodnight all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Anybody have the 00z ensembles? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 6Z GFS is...as they say...a dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 0z Euro ensemble control is an impressive storm. I'll cash out now, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yea sorta like 1987 with 6-12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 0z Euro ensemble control is an impressive storm. I'll cash out now, thanks. If only it was that easy.. I assume changes. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yea I'm sure it won't pan out unless lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Yea I'm sure it won't pan out unless lucky its about time we have some luck on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 its about time we have some luck on our side. I hope so. As long as it stays suppressed I feel good about it. With it still 6 days away I don't want to see a north trend yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 just read GSP extended and they're not buying in to anything for Thursday just yet. they tend to stay conservative. Robert had a good write up on the Thursday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 IF you buy into the Euro ENS control run, it's an impressive storm with heavy snow, temps in the mid 20's and 850's crashing into the -10 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Too far out to buy into anything but interesting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Check out @RaleighWx's Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/416920426745319424 Allan's latest tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm not jumping on the snow train yet but this could be a classic example of the GFS losing the storm then finding it again within a few days. I'm encouraged by the Euro ENS support of the Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I'm not jumping on the snow train yet but this could be a classic example of the GFS losing the storm then finding it again within a few days. I'm encouraged by the Euro ENS support of the Op run. The individual members are very supportive, 75-80% of the members show accumulating snow in the area. Get this within 96 hours I will be more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 As far as I'm concerned the GFS has already folded to the Euro with last nights run. It went from showing a big phased out miller B type storm to then showing suppressed crap. Now it's back on 6z to more of that phased solution. The big worry here is last night the Euro kind of ignoring the Miller A and going with that light snow scenario. Euro should be fun today but it's hard to ignore the Euro Ens when it's agreeing with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The individual members are very supportive, 75-80% of the members show accumulating snow in the area. Get this within 96 hours I will be more optimistic. are they supportive of most of nc with the snow and also in n ga and upstate ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 are they supportive of most of nc with the snow and also in n ga and upstate ? I was told they were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The models are trending in a direction that I've been forecasting to occur during the next week--Some kind of Winter Storm. The operational run last night of European showed a classic setup, where a Baja low gets picked up and develops in the Gulf, then moves off the Southeast Coast, bringing snow and ice north and west of it's track. The GFS had the setup a few days ago, but has lost it, and produces only a Northeast Winter storm. Still too early to see which way this goes.... I have an extensive write-up on what is needed for this to occur, and the trends of the models the last year or so, and why it's so wet in the Southeast, and how using synoptics-not actual models or ensembles, is always the best way to forecast in the longer range.Now this is set to occur within 5 days it will start to get more scrutiny. Cross your fingers if you're in the upper regions of the Southeast and want snow--you'll need to get the Baja low picked up but remain supressed throughout it's lifetime, and you'll need the Banana-shaped perfectly placed Arctic High shown on European to provide the cold air.www.wxsouth.comSee More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 IF you buy into the Euro ENS control run, it's an impressive storm with heavy snow, temps in the mid 20's and 850's crashing into the -10 region. We are still a LONG way out, but I know it's sometimes nice to hear descriptions of various model runs as this is what makes following fun for some. With that in mind, and of course to be taken with a grain of salt.................this is for you NC/SC guys. The snow maps from hours 144-168 show the entire state of NC being covered with 3+ inches (except for the far SE corner, which gets 1+) The 3 inch line touches the extreme northern part of the state of SC too. The 6+ line covers roughly the northern 1/3 of NC and 9+ inches are roughly across the extreme north central and northeast part of the state (but not all the way to the coast) The northern/northwestern 1/4 of NC also keeps snow cover on the ground of at least 1 inch through the end of the run 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 An addition to my above description of the Euro EPS Snow map. The 1 inch line covers parts of northern GA, with the three inch line creeping into NE Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The navy model is amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The navy model is amped. hope they all get amped with plenty of cold air to the north to tap in to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 The big elephant in the room with the Euro is it holding back that energy in the SW for a day. You would think it wouldn't just sit there and spin then kick out. It would just slow crawl east and then pick up steam. The NAM is def. at that stage out to 57 on the 12z. It has it in W Mexico and is slowly moving it east. It actually doesn't look far off from the Euro at around the same time frame the NAM is just a little faster with it. You gotta think if this thing comes in fast it doesn't bode well for us since the cold air may not make it in time. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Also on the NAM that first wave is further southwest than the 6z or GFS. That might have a little surprise with it. Not exactly where we would want it but closer to giving us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Several of the SREF members are hanging the baha low even farther back than the Euro. That will be a good model to watch for trend’s on what’s going to happen with that feature. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_3z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Several of the SREF members are hanging the baha low even farther back than the Euro. That will be a good model to watch for trend’s on what’s going to happen with that feature. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21500US_3z/srefloop.html Lines up nicely with the Euro OP. Looks like it hangs it back just a tad bit more. Probably what the Euro ENS was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Thought the overnight Euro Ensemble Mean was fairly impressive. Surface low tracking just off the southeast coast, with banana sfc high to the north and northwest...one anchored in over northern NY at Canadian border, another to the west. Very good jet dynamics too with the southeast in right entrance region of jet over the mid-Atlantic, a common feature in winter storms here. Just looking through the various op and ensemble runs, one trend I see is that the northern stream shortwave that dives in from the Pacific Northwest is coming in a bit sharper and a bit farther west, inducing more of a storm signal - not all are like this, some are weak and north with that wave, but just commenting on trends I'm seeing, mainly with the various GFS Ensemble members. It's a tightrope with getting the storm and cold temps, but what's new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looking at the 0z GFS and Euro and the 6z GFS, it looks like the all want to rebuild the SE ridge and the trough off the NW coast. Not even bothering to look at the indexes, as I'm sure they're probably similar to what we've been seeing. Not a great LR look. Hopefully, it's transient. Thanks for the storm threat analysis and pop, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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