The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0.52" Wow, that must fall after 144 looking at H7. Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Sweet deal. Thanks man. Would be sweet if we all got to share in some of this for Christmas. at this point i consider it a victory that the euro hasn't sent a phased bomb over lake michigan. Got about 2 more days to dodge that bullet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like DVN takes the cake for this run with 0.71" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The Euro seems colder, that is good. I can't afford any further northern movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The Euro seems colder, that is good. I can't afford any further northern movement. that's one thing that hasn't been much of an issue, except for last weekends storm....plenty of cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 at this point i consider it a victory that the euro hasn't sent a phased bomb over lake michigan. Got about 2 more days to dodge that bullet. Lol yea we'll see and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Kinda seems like the GEM is the outlier at the moment. having the GFS, the Euro, and the UKMET in the same ballpark makes me feel better about this one, but still a LONG, LONG, LONG way to go in this ballgame folks. One thing for certain, SOMEONE is going to have to shovel some landing lights for Santa Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Kinda seems like the GEM is the outlier at the moment. having the GFS, the Euro, and the UKMET in the same ballpark makes me feel better about this one, but still a LONG, LONG, LONG way to go in this ballgame folks. One thing for certain, SOMEONE is going to have to shovel some landing lights for Santa Friday night Guy up the road from me may need to. Lol he actually has a fake landing strip on his roof for Christmas lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Every storm except the blizzard last weekend has managed to miss me one after the other, I like that the GFS/EURO/UKMET all have a solid track where they give me accumulating snowfall Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Every storm except the blizzard last weekend has managed to miss me one after the other, I like that the GFS/EURO/UKMET all have a solid track where they give me accumulating snowfall Christmas Eve. yeah, same here. but remember, last year we were hit pretty good, so it was bound to be not as exciting this part of the year for us. Way early guess, 3-6" for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 400 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 ...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST TOWARD CHRISTMAS... USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS IN PHENOMENALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE TRACK AND RELATIVE INTENSITY OF THE MAJOR WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST DAY 5 TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DAY 7. FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z/19 GEFS MEAN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z/18 ECENS MEAN WITH THE SAME SYSTEM...ADDITIONALLY PARTICULARLY ROBUST SUPPORT. USED THE ECMWF SINCE ITS DETAILS TEND TO VERIFY BETTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH MAY HELP TO SORT OUT THE NOISY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESURGING INTO THE WEST THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 just like the GFS is... hello ice storm ending as a couple of inches of snow, Something tells me I may get that payback out of this one for the PAH, EVV, Louisville ice storm 2 years ago giving me 1' of snow... Hey guys thanks for the great disco! I will be flying into STL late Thursday night then driving to Carbondale, IL to spend Friday - Monday. It would appear to my untrained eyes that the Carbondale area is going to be hovering right around 32 for most of the day Friday. I'm I correct at this and if so that would lead to a pretty good ice even on Christmas eve for that region right? Thanks for the input guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Hey guys thanks for the great disco! I will be flying into STL late Thursday night then driving to Carbondale, IL to spend Friday - Monday. It would appear to my untrained eyes that the Carbondale area is going to be hovering right around 32 for most of the day Friday. I'm I correct at this and if so that would lead to a pretty good ice even on Christmas eve for that region right? Thanks for the input guys! right it could lead towards an ice event, but it'll be a close call. something to watch for sure. Looking at the models your flight coming in should be ok, and you MIGHT even be able to drive to Carbondale if your going straight from the airport, but through the day on Friday the temps will be falling, gotta see the models as we go along this week, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 right it could lead towards an ice event, but it'll be a close call. something to watch for sure. Looking at the models your flight coming in should be ok, and you MIGHT even be able to drive to Carbondale if your going straight from the airport, but through the day on Friday the temps will be falling, gotta see the models as we go along this week, That was what I thought/ Thanks jhamps! I'm still in the learning phase of reading model outputs so I appreciate the response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 right it could lead towards an ice event, but it'll be a close call. something to watch for sure. Looking at the models your flight coming in should be ok, and you MIGHT even be able to drive to Carbondale if your going straight from the airport, but through the day on Friday the temps will be falling, gotta see the models as we go along this week, STL (east and west) is an extremely close call at this point. There's no reason to throw out anything except a mix for a forecast right now. I'd feel more comfortable sitting in PIA or ORD at this point, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 400 AM EST SUN DEC 19 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 26 2010 ...INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST TOWARD CHRISTMAS... USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS IN PHENOMENALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH THE TRACK AND RELATIVE INTENSITY OF THE MAJOR WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST DAY 5 TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DAY 7. FURTHERMORE...THE 00Z/19 GEFS MEAN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE 12Z/18 ECENS MEAN WITH THE SAME SYSTEM...ADDITIONALLY PARTICULARLY ROBUST SUPPORT. USED THE ECMWF SINCE ITS DETAILS TEND TO VERIFY BETTER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH MAY HELP TO SORT OUT THE NOISY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESURGING INTO THE WEST THIS PERIOD. i love that headline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 i love that headline Me too. Its all you can ask for this far out. Have a nice snowpack here regardless, so no worries about a white Christmas, if it misses it misses. But its so nice to have the possibility there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here's an illustration of one of my biggest concerns for my region regarding the xmas event. Basically a strong low emerges from the central rockies, begins to move east spreading a nice swath of snow to about Indiana, then dives southeast towards the southern TN valley where it begins redevelopment and carries up the coast. Leaving a large screw zone centered over ohio and points north. This happens from time to time....see Feb '06. Even January '96 had a similar track however we were saved due to the fact once it got to the coast it slowed down enough to throw a comma head all the way back here, (but if we had to count on the low bringing us moisture as it swung south of us, we wouldn't have gotten anything). then again, it could be a pdll event ....and of course lets not forget the other potential issues. It simply peters out and doesn' t phase. It phases earlier and tracks north. As of right now, i give cmh a 30% chance of a 3"+ snow event xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Recovering from some really intense company holiday parties. Anyways, looking like 1-3 with the monday clipper and onto this bad boy. GFS slowly cranking up amounts and 12z GFS now over .5" with good ratios. From what i gather, Euro hasn't been half bad either. Some LE looks possible as well. Long ways to go but helps assure another less than productive week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Recovering from some really intense company holiday parties. Anyways, looking like 1-3 with the monday clipper and onto this bad boy. GFS slowly cranking up amounts and 12z GFS now over .5" with good ratios. From what i gather, Euro hasn't been half bad either. Some LE looks possible as well. Long ways to go but helps assure another less than productive week. ya 0z euro has around .60" liquid for us and ya def looks like some lake enhancement is possible. and I wouldn't rule out 2-5" monday night/tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This is some of the best model agreement I've seen in this range in quite some time. Very nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here's an illustration of one of my biggest concerns for my region regarding the xmas event. Basically a strong low emerges from the central rockies, begins to move east spreading a nice swath of snow to about Indiana, then dives southeast towards the southern TN valley where it begins redevelopment and carries up the coast. Leaving a large screw zone centered over ohio and points north. That would be the worst case scenario. Now, im going to throw a little extreme out there on the flip side. Detroits whitest Christmas on record is 13". Current snow depth at DTW is a settled 5". At worst it could go to 4". If the GFS is right we get 3" of snow on Tuesday, bringing depth to 7-8". Then the Christmas storm is a fluffy masterpiece of heavy snow, bringing the 7am depth on Christmas morning to 13" or more and making 2010 the whitest Christmas on record. :weenie: Realistically, it will probably be somewhere in the middle of the two extreme scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Snow chances still up in the air, but when are they not for this area to get snow. but the ice potential seems to be creeping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 here's an illustration of one of my biggest concerns for my region regarding the xmas event. Basically a strong low emerges from the central rockies, begins to move east spreading a nice swath of snow to about Indiana, then dives southeast towards the southern TN valley where it begins redevelopment and carries up the coast. Leaving a large screw zone centered over ohio and points north. This happens from time to time....see Feb '06. Even January '96 had a similar track however we were saved due to the fact once it got to the coast it slowed down enough to throw a comma head all the way back here, (but if we had to count on the low bringing us moisture as it swung south of us, we wouldn't have gotten anything). then again, it could be a pdll event ....and of course lets not forget the other potential issues. It simply peters out and doesn' t phase. It phases earlier and tracks north. As of right now, i give cmh a 30% chance of a 3"+ snow event xmas. yes it could happen for sure the AO is tanked which goes in your favor..... but the features such as the west coast ridge and PV to the NE will probably change by hundreds if not thousands of miles from run to run, at this range.....but defintely a valid concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Snow chances still up in the air, but when are they not for this area to get snow. but the ice potential seems to be creeping up. Yeah, as others have mentioned it's a tough call this far out. Even if you do get some ice, you may get some snow at the front and end of the storm. The heaviest snow will probably fall just north of where the mix line sets up, so you could end up doing very well if you stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still a potential if this comes a little north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still a potential if this comes a little north? I wouldn't waste my time on this one, if you're looking for a big storm. But there's a chance we could get grazed with some light accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah, as others have mentioned it's a tough call this far out. Even if you do get some ice, you may get some snow at the front and end of the storm. The heaviest snow will probably fall just north of where the mix line sets up, so you could end up doing very well if you stay all snow. Yeah. We either get super lucky where its cold and a powerful WAA event rips threw and we get a nice snow. Or we need a two parter WAA then Deformation snows.. This situation screams the rain snow line will ultimately end up around KC to Springfield. However will blocking and cold air in place(see pattern and incredible snow cover) we have been much colder recently then we would without that snow cover, not helpful at the mid levels. But none the less could see an icy situation. More then anything we don't want to look like snow until 1-2 days out then it all goes 100-200 miles north. we usually get two 4-8 inch events per year. this could be number 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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