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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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Southern VT can be well over 3 hours from Boston- Rt 2 can be a crawl in places.  Might as well go to Stowe/Sugarbush, where there's more snow and options for lower cost in surrounding towns (not competing with the massive New York crowd).

I agree, but was just throwing different options out there.

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If I had a weenie location it'd be in a mountain valley...something like SLK. I want the elevation, but the radiational cooling too. Waterville Valley would be an interesting site.

 

Yeah SLK or Lake Placid is pretty crazy being the fact that they are the bottom of the valley floor and situated at 1,600-2,000ft in that area.  Lake Placid is like 1,800-1,900ft in a valley.  That's pretty hard to find in the east.

 

I'm pretty close to my preferred weenie location... in all honesty it would be up at the Bolton Valley area (lots of grad students from UVM, ski bums, families) live up there.  I know several people that work in Stowe and live up there (its about 35-40 minutes from Stowe)...living at 2,100ft along the Spine of the Greens where your house/apartment/condo legitimately averages 250" a year.  Its essentially Woodford but with a lot more latitude and a lot more upslope.  Some of my friends will have a legit 4 foot snowpack in their front yards up there each winter.  And the snow season our your front door can run from late-September to late-May. 

 

Another spot would be the 1,500ft neighborhoods here in Stowe like Notchbrook area which is essentially right across from the base area.  I have a friend who lives in a condo in one of those developments and he gets a lot more snow than I do here in the valley.  Its essentially the same climate as my work office, probably in the area of 200" a year and great snowpack retention being tucked on the immediate east side.

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West Bethel Maine area, prices are lower, snow is plenty, Sunday River, Wildcat nearby.

 

How much snow does that town average?  I see Sunday River says they average 167" and I'm assuming that's probably at a high elevation.  But I mean if you are comparing it to Boston, it's plenty of snow.

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As of ~6:00 P.M., 0.6” of snow has fallen here at the house.  The snowfall was moving right along there for a bit with larger flakes, but more recently it’s lightened up and flakes are tiny, in the ~1 mm range.

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I’ve added the latest map updates from the BTV NWS below – the Winter Weather Advisories have filled in a bit down south, and there are also some Flood Watches as well.  On the projected accumulations map, one notable change was the distribution of snowfall out in Northern New York, but there was also an expansion of the 6-8” coloring along the spine of the Northern Greens.

 

26NOV13C.jpg

 

26NOV13D.jpg

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As of ~6:00 P.M., 0.6” of snow has fallen here at the house. The snowfall was moving right along there for a bit with larger flakes, but more recently it’s lightened up and flakes are tiny, in the ~1 mm range.

Yeah I just went outside and was surprised to find around 0.7" of wet snow on everything. That leading band put it down pretty fast as it lifted north. Small little needle flakes now that are pretty wet so it's getting warm in the column. Light snow but still pretty steady.

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I would think those amounts should be INCreased along the upslope spine. I think they will see a 3-5 inch tonite, esp Northern Greens  and another 6-10 in upslope. But what do I know I'm just a weenie.

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Another vote for Bolton Valley.  It is a very easy drive from the Boston area and really not that much longer than going to Loon.   Lived in Boston many years ago and spent every winter weekend driving north.  Finally smartened up and moved back north.  Bolton slope side condos are not that expensive.  They are the only local area with night skiing and you are basically in the middle of the Stowe, Sugarbush, Burlington triangle.

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The 18z NAM is interesting for the upslope zone tomorrow night and Thursday morning.  It gets cold quickly and SFC temps drop right in line with H85...this would lead to rain changing to pasting wet snow to dry powder and flash freeze.

 

There's even a resurgence of upslope there as the last bit of vorticity and trough axis swings through. 

 

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well done powderfreak, I'm arriving in Randolph at 415pm or so , temps should be falling at that time....and hopefully a couple inches of snow on the college hill. What do you think?

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look at that damn WV loop.....the 5h low digging in GOM , That mid level warmth is gonna surge thru NNE faster than a blink of an eye later tonite.....prolly couple hundred miles North of the Canadian border (w VT) just a mid level torch later tonite WOW

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Any idea when travel Wednesday night might get difficult Wednesday night on I-91, rt 100, rt 4 in VT? Flash freeze with snow on top is basically the worst road conditions possible and it's the biggest travel day of the year.

As far as I can tell we need to get to Killington by 8:00 pm to be safe. Does that make sense?

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Any idea when travel Wednesday night might get difficult Wednesday night on I-91, rt 100, rt 4 in VT? Flash freeze with snow on top is basically the worst road conditions possible and it's the biggest travel day of the year.

As far as I can tell we need to get to Killington by 8:00 pm to be safe. Does that make sense?

I would say much earlier than 8pm, if ur tryin to beat the 32 f temp. Like 3-4pm per BTV WRF, 8 is def a cpl hours too late.

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I’m up grading exams, so I’ve been doing hourly checks on the snowboard as this storm has progressed.  I didn’t check the depth between 6:00 P.M. and 9:00 P.M., but accumulation was slow through that period, and I bet the depth was still around that 6:00 P.M. 0.6” value in the 8:00 P.M. timeframe.  With that estimation, snow has been generally accumulating in the 0.5”/hr range over the past few hours:

 

6:00 P.M.: 0.6”

9:00 P.M.: 1.2”

10:00 P.M.: 1.8”

11:00 P.M.:  2.2”

 

One important thing I did note was that the snow was starting to get a bit “noisier” when I was out for the 11:00 P.M. check.  The flakes were still decent dendrites, but there was starting to be some more granular conglomerations of flakes in the mix.  Presumably that’s the first signs of some warmer air in the upper elevations.  At some point this evening if the precipitation type looks like it’s making a big transition over to something other than snow, I may do a snowboard clearing and get a liquid equivalent to segregate the front end snow portion of this storm in the analyses.

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Just checking in everyone. We are 33F over 30F in Eastern Brunswick ME. Spitting snow right now. Seeing that temps at 3000-4000 feet are above freezing based on GYX radar I see us seeing a brief period of FZRA before WAA takes over. Well I will check in tomorrow with rainfall updates and winds!

 

By the way: Seeing your guys posts it looks like my forecast is right on track for Southern, Central and NE Vermont this evening. I forecasted for VTrans today. Was a tricky one I spent about 5 hours forecasting for 6 road districts. 

 

I will update tomorrow! Good night everyone!

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Event totals: 2.2” Snow/0.26” L.E.

 

Well, there’s still some snow falling out there, but the predominant form of precipitation is now sleet, so I cored and cleared the snowboards to get this portion of the storm in the books.  There’s over ¼” of liquid equivalent so far for this part of the storm, and the sleet is starting to accumulate, at least at a somewhat slow, sleet-like rate, so there will probably be some additional liquid equivalent to add in the front end frozen portion of the event.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 2.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.26 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 8.5

Snow Density: 11.8% H2O

Temperature: 32.5 F

Sky: Light Snow/Sleet

Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches

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Event totals: 3.0” Snow/0.91” L.E.

 

Rain gear was the order of the day during observations time this morning, but we clearly picked up quite a good shot of snow/sleet last night before the frozen precipitation mixed out.  I found 0.8” of very dense material on the boards this morning, with 0.37” of liquid in it.  The rain gauge had also picked up a total of 0.65” of liquid equivalent since I emptied it at midnight, so it definitely held into some liquid that the boards didn’t.  With the addition from this storm, the yard has got a very dense 4” of snowpack in it at the moment. 

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.37 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.2

Snow Density: 46.3% H2O

Temperature: 33.6 F

Sky: Rain

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

 

I grabbed a screen shot from the web cam this morning, which represents what this storm’s waterlogged accumulation looks like at the moment:

 

27NOV13A.jpg

 

The latest update to the advisories map from BTV shows that the Winter Weather Advisories have been dropped in Northern Vermont since most of the precipitation is over to rain, and now we’re sandwiched in between the Winter Storm Warnings over in Northern New York and the Flood Watches off to the east:

 

27NOV13B.jpg

 

The NWS says there’s a possibility that Winter Weather Advisories may reappear in this area, depending on what goes on with regard to tonight’s potential upslope snow:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AS OF 341 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SHARP THERMAL BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ENHANCING UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...LOOKING AT ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT PICKING UP AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

 

The updated BTV accumulations map as of this morning is below:

 

27NOV13C.jpg

 

Our point forecast actually calls for 4 to 9 inches of additional snow through tomorrow, which doesn’t quite jive with the indications of 4 to 6 inches on the projected accumulations map, but it’s in the ballpark.  If something in that range were to fall, it would be putting this November’s snowfall up in the company of November 2007 (18.8”) and November 2008 (20.5”), which were certainly decent Novembers for snowfall.

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1.52" including the snow so far. Only 42.8F right now so we don't have much wind. It should be a quick cool down this evening.

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I just wanted to thank you all for the feedback on condo/house locations. I'll look at Bolton, but I have to balance out "snow-weenieness" with ease of renting, convenience, all seasons appeal, etc. The truth is - if I were to pick a place to live, I'd pick VT in a heartbeat. But Lincoln is pretty sweet for convenience to Boston, and SO much to do around there. I love driving up the Kanc, walking around Conway, driving up to Mt Washington, and both Loon (when not crowded) and Cannon (anytime!) are pretty decent ski resorts. So, all in all,I think I will stick to looking in that area... for now, until I decide it's time to move for snowier grounds. :)

 

PS: I never post but you guys are fantastic. It's great to see your reports, and unlike some on here, I'm happy ANYTIME someone is getting snow.

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Only a few of the Vermont ski areas are open and/or reporting snowfall, but here’s the north to south listing of totals I’ve seen so far from this storm:

 

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 1”

Mad River Glen: 4”

Sugarbush: 2”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 2”

 

I’m surprised to see Bolton reporting only 1”, since we picked up 3” down in the valley below, but as they don’t open for a couple weeks, they may just be taking quick cursory measurements at this point.  Anyway, it looks like there’s a decent amount of snow at the main base elevation based on their web cam.  Looking at the radar, there doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of liquid precipitation upstream from the area at this time, so hopefully that rain will pass through and then that snow line off to the west can move back in.  Based on the models, it looks like the frozen precipitation would be moving back in later this afternoon.

 

27NOV13A.gif

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.82" liquid so far with 1.2" falling as snow.  temp at 39F and we still have about an inch of snow and slop on the ground, more than I thought we would at this time.

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I just wanted to thank you all for the feedback on condo/house locations. I'll look at Bolton, but I have to balance out "snow-weenieness" with ease of renting, convenience, all seasons appeal, etc. The truth is - if I were to pick a place to live, I'd pick VT in a heartbeat. But Lincoln is pretty sweet for convenience to Boston, and SO much to do around there. I love driving up the Kanc, walking around Conway, driving up to Mt Washington, and both Loon (when not crowded) and Cannon (anytime!) are pretty decent ski resorts. So, all in all,I think I will stick to looking in that area... for now, until I decide it's time to move for snowier grounds. :)

 

PS: I never post but you guys are fantastic. It's great to see your reports, and unlike some on here, I'm happy ANYTIME someone is getting snow.

My suggestion is to drive around during winter whatever location you pick.  I picked my house in the summer and not knowing local terrain and not realizing how frustrating it can be in the valley.  I have lived in other valley locations such as Lyndonville, but that valley higher and more snow than the CT River Valley, so thought this spot would be the same. Another thought to think about is shadowing, we also lose out on the big synoptic systems.  Literally just a mile or two up the road easily gets lots more snow!!  Good for me still renting and when I go to buy will do my best to get above 1000ft!!  But being right off I91 I can be in Boston just a hair over two hours, which is nice!

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