SnoSki14 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 These are these highs from climo reports and departures. ISP and BDR both tied their record highs. NYC 96/ +17 LGA 94/ +15 EWR 96 / +15 BDR 90/ +13 JFK 88/ +10 ISP 88/ +12 Now imagine if those were negative departures, what would that equate to? Highs in the 50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 95 here today after morning low of 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The roller coaster continues this weekend into early next week but should be followed by more sustained warmth for a period (9/18 - 9/22) a a strong trough digs into the west with ridging into the east. Latest guidance has the next potential late season heat on/around 9/19.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Now imagine if those were negative departures, what would that equate to? Highs in the 50s? NYC 62 LGA 64 EWR 66 BDR 64 JFK 68 ISP 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 NYC 62 LGA 64 EWR 66 BDR 64 JFK 68 ISP 64 Now that's a lot more fall like, too bad it's unlikely we'll see -15 or lower departures. A -10 is considered a huge achievement with cool outbreaks while warm departures of +10 and higher are much more common and not unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Today's highs TEB: 97 EWR: 96NYC: 96BLM: 95 LGA: 94New bnswk: 94PHL: 94 TTN: 93 ACY: 92 JFK: 88ISP: 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Pretty silly dew points this summer... now sitting at 79/75 at 8:30 at night! Played two sets of tennis in the late afternoon and sweat more water than I thought my body was carrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Now that's a lot more fall like, too bad it's unlikely we'll see -15 or lower departures. A -10 is considered a huge achievement with cool outbreaks while warm departures of +10 and higher are much more common and not unusual. It'll be an achievement if urban/coastal areas stay in the 60s Saturday or have any overnight lows in the 40s. Both seem unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Friday through at least Tuesday temps will average around 7-10 or more below normal EACH day. Some days it may not even touch 70. I don't think next weeks "potential warmth" will negate much of this upcoming cool stretch. It might not be as warm as you might be thinking or wishing later next week. We shall see. my forecasted highs are 72 and 73 Sun-Tues with upper 40s for lows. my daily avg is 77/55 for that time period...that's 5-6 maybe 7 tops below normal. Meanwhile we racked up impressive departures today and sizable departures yesterday and tomorrow. Highs will push upward next week all the while the averages fall back to 76/53 by the 21st. It will only take an 81/60 for a couple of days to negate much of the cooldown and then you still have large departures to deal with. The last week in September would have to get really cool anyho...last week I was laughing at people saying fall when temps were in the mid 70s...now if we had a 16 degree high temperature departure with temps in the mid 60s..then I would give it to you, that's fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 I figured we see more 90's but 96 is an extreme for this time of year...There are very few days over 95 in NYC after 9/11... 9/11...99 in 1931...99 in 1983...96 in 2013 9/21...95 in 1895 9/22...95 in 1914 9/22...95 in 1895 9/23...97 in 1895 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 It's absolutely gross out there tonight. I just walked the dog and the air is about as heavy as I can remember it being. 84 degrees in Glen Ridge at 21:52. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 The roller coaster continues this weekend into early next week but should be followed by more sustained warmth for a period (9/18 - 9/22) a a strong trough digs into the west with ridging into the east. Latest guidance has the next potential late season heat on/around 9/19.... Right on schedule for the tropical mess that develops east of Florida in about ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Looks like we could see a few rounds of storms tomorrow - I just got back from DR and it is hotter here than there, pretty cool to see this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Right on schedule for the tropical mess that develops east of Florida in about ten days. Yea that mess looks like it will form around Jamaica and go north, eerie path.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Looks like we could see a few rounds of storms tomorrow - I just got back from DR and it hot here than there pretty cool to see the one day im hoping the storms old off, having a work party outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 How about this: 003 WGUS75 KBOU 120757 FFSBOU FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 157 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013 COC013-059-121015- /O.CON.KBOU.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-130912T1015Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ JEFFERSON CO-BOULDER CO- 157 AM MDT THU SEP 12 2013 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM MDT FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND BOULDER COUNTIES... ...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR BOULDER COUNTY... AT 150 AM MDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED COLLAPSED HOUSES NEAR JAMESTOWN. MAJOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON SOUTH SAINT VRAIN CREEK IN NORTHERN BOULDER COUNTY. THERE IS MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IN THE FOURMILE BURN AREA WEST OF THE CITY OF BOULDER. THERE IS MODERATE FLOODING ON BOULDER CREEK THROUGH THE CITY OF BOULDER AND IN LEFTHAND CANYON. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST OR OCCURRING ON SAINT VRAIN CREEK THROUGH LYONS. MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON SOUTH BOULDER CREEK IN SOUTHERN BOULDER COUNTY. SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING FLOODING INCLUDE... NORTHWESTERN ARVADA...WESTERN WESTMINSTER...BOULDER...WESTERN BROOMFIELD...LAFAYETTE...LOUISVILLE...ERIE...SUPERIOR...LYONS... JAMESTOWN...SALINA...ELDORADO SPRINGS...CRISMAN...GOLD HILL... NIWOT...SUMMERVILLE...PEACEFUL VALLEY...ALLENSPARK...WALLSTREET... ROCKY FLATS...RAYMOND...MEEKER PARK...SUNSHINE AND WHITE RANCH OPEN SPACE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION FOR PEOPLE ALONG BOULDER CREEK IN THE CITY OF BOULDER...IN THE FOURMILE BURN AREA...AND IN BOULDER CANYON. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE AND SEVERE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS FROM THE FOURMILE BURN AREA DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CITY OF BOULDER. SOME DRAINAGE BASINS IMPACTED INCLUDE BOULDER CREEK...FOURMILE CREEK...GOLD RUN...FOURMILE CANYON CREEK... AND WONDERLAND CREEK. SEVERE DEBRIS FLOWS CAN ALSO BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS ROADS. ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES MAY BE WASHED AWAY IN PLACES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOOD WATERS...CLIMB TO SAFETY. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. && LAT...LON 4011 10515 4010 10505 3996 10505 3994 10511 3995 10513 3993 10515 3991 10510 3985 10509 3978 10521 3977 10540 3992 10539 3994 10545 4026 10555 4026 10524 $$ TLH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Any chance at t-storms today? If so timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 This was the highest departure of the year for Central Park. 1-30-13.....59 39 49 16 5-31-13.....90 75 83 16 9-11-13.....96 77 87 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Any chance at t-storms today? If so timeframe?There are some already popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Now that's a lot more fall like, too bad it's unlikely we'll see -15 or lower departures. A -10 is considered a huge achievement with cool outbreaks while warm departures of +10 and higher are much more common and not unusual. It will be in the 60's on Saturday. It was in the upper 60's during early afternoon back in late July with no rain just clouds. Some in the east that were 10-20 above will be 10-20 below this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 my forecasted highs are 72 and 73 Sun-Tues with upper 40s for lows. my daily avg is 77/55 for that time period...that's 5-6 maybe 7 tops below normal. Meanwhile we racked up impressive departures today and sizable departures yesterday and tomorrow. Highs will push upward next week all the while the averages fall back to 76/53 by the 21st. It will only take an 81/60 for a couple of days to negate much of the cooldown and then you still have large departures to deal with. The last week in September would have to get really cool anyho...last week I was laughing at people saying fall when temps were in the mid 70s...now if we had a 16 degree high temperature departure with temps in the mid 60s..then I would give it to you, that's fall Some of those highs may come down a bit. But what's your forecasted high for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 There are some already popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Instability looks decent for early in day. But shear is weak. Best shear and forcing for severe t-storms this afternoon, will be NW of NYC New outlook at 13z expands the slight risk SE into NYC:...NRN MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TNGT... RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS APPROACHING THE NERN STATES TODAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNALLY-ENHANCED BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL...HOWEVER...BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS RESIDUAL EML HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND 700-500 MB FLOW SLIGHTLY BACKS AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...WITH EVEN MODEST SFC HEATING...AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM ERN MD NEWD INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...WHERE MLCAPE MAY REACH 2000 J/KG. WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW...WITH 700-500 MB WIND SPEEDS INCREASING FROM AROUND 30 KTS NEAR THE MD-PA BORDER TO ABOUT 50 KTS IN ME. SETUP THEREFORE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM N OF NYC INTO NEW ENGLAND...WHERE A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR. GIVEN 30-40 KT LLJ...DMGG WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO APPEAR MOST PROBABLE THIS AFTN OVER THOSE PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THAT EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST HEATING AND ARE REMOVED FROM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LVL ONSHORE FLOW. LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD FARTHER S/SW INTO PA/MD. WHILE THE SVR THREAT SHOULD END BY EVE OVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND...ISOLD SVR ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY TNGT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AS ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM ALONG STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ADVANCING E FROM THE OH VLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Lol. 20 below not in nj...good lord..10 at most for saturday...at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Lol. 20 below not in nj...good lord..10 at most for saturday...at most The closest that the U.S will get to a -20 will be in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 No real changes on the overnight guidance for the upcoming week to 10 days. The cooldown 9/13 - 9/17 is followed by an overall warmer pattern 9/18 - 9/22 with higher heights into the east and a trough into the west coast. The peak of the cooldown will be fri night and sat (9/13-14) with a chance for more late season heat 9/19-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Quick scan of NYC's progged temps over the next several days would yield about a -40 departure through Wed. After including today's positive departure, NYC should be right around 0 / normal by this coming Wednesday. The last 10 days will determine how far above normal we finish. Looks like back and forth biased warm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Storms in western NJ heading this way. Probably nothing more than some heavy rain and a little lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Keep the rain away from Holmdel please! Also notice a few sugar maples showing color! They always seem to change early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1135 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 1230 PM EDT * AT 1133 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THE STORM WAS NEAR WHITE HOUSE STATION... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SOMERVILLE AROUND 1145 AM EDT... FAR HILLS AND MARTINSVILLE AROUND 1150 AM EDT... MENDHAM AROUND 1155 AM EDT... MILLINGTON AND BASKING RIDGE AROUND NOON EDT... MORRISTOWN AROUND 1210 PM EDT... MADISON AROUND 1215 PM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONE INCH OR LARGER. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. WHEN THUNDER ROARS...MOVE INDOORS! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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