sutherlandfan Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 Let's get a September thread going, first week looks interesting with some pretty hot patterns forming around Labor day. Anyone think this could move east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 As I said before. Don't get use to the heat because the CFS is persistently showing Below Average temps after September 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 let's not forget the CFS also had a cool backend of august as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 let's not forget the CFS also had a cool backend of august as well...That may be so, but there's a strong signal because of the MJO. It'll be Phase 1 by the end of Week 1 in September.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 latest jamstec seasonal outlook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 latest jamstec seasonal outlook: I'm better off trusting the CFS. The JAMSTEC has that same signature lasting through this winter with a decent Weak East-Based La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted August 23, 2013 Share Posted August 23, 2013 You're probably right. I think sep will be volatile, given that's been the case all summer with a lack of any teleconnetic signal. First week looks warm, then we will probably go cool, then normal. I kind of wonder if model performance was at an all time low for this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 May be a bit off-topic, but does anyone know why we seem to have a spike in record highs at end of August/early September, compared with third week of August? For KNYC for example, the record for August 24 is 94 (and there are a bunch of 92's) but 1953, 1973, 1983 and 2010 feature some upper 90's (talking 97,98, 99 and a few 100+'s) in that band. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 May be a bit off-topic, but does anyone know why we seem to have a spike in record highs at end of August/early September, compared with third week of August? For KNYC for example, the record for August 24 is 94 (and there are a bunch of 92's) but 1953, 1973, 1983 and 2010 feature some upper 90's (talking 97,98, 99 and a few 100+'s) in that band. Thoughts? Global warming is most effective in the first and last weeks of every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 September climate stats for NYC...September decade averages...Decade...ave temp...rainfall...ave max...ave min...1870's......65.3......3.41"............................1880's......66.2......4.18"......86.5......46.11890's......67.7......3.38"......89.6......47.01900's......68.1......3.84"......86.8......48.41910's......66.8......3.09"......89.5......45.61920's......67.8......3.54"......91.1......47.21930's......68.7......5.15"......90.0......47.91940's......68.8......3.70"......91.2......45.51950's......68.3......2.36"......89.9......45.61960's......67.7......3.85"......90.2......47.21970's......68.3......4.73"......90.1......47.11980's......68.6......3.58"......90.3......47.51990's......68.0......4.18"......88.7......47.62000's......68.6......4.91"......86.5......49.72010's.....70.0.......5.81"......91.0......52.71870-2009........67.8......3.85"......89.2......47.11980-2009........68.4......4.22"......88.5......48.3Warmest..........Coolest..........Wettest............Driest...73.6 in 1961...60.8 in 1871...16.85" in 1882...0.21" in 188473.3 in 1881...61.8 in 1887...11.96" in 1934...0.29" in 191473.3 in 2005...62.6 in 1883...11.51" in 2004...0.41" in 188572.3 in 1931...62.8 in 1888...10.30" in 1944...0.48" in 200572.3 in 1959...63.1 in 1963...10.09" in 1933...0.51" in 194172.2 in 1891...63.3 in 1893.....9.39" in 2011...0.60" in 194872.1 in 1921...63.3 in 1879.....9.32" in 1975...0.62" in 189572.0 in 1930...63.6 in 1917.....9.02" in 1938...0.70" in 195171.8 in 1983...63.7 in 1876.....8.82" in 1966...0.97" in 188171.8 in 1884...63.9 in 1918.....8.81" in 1999...1.10" in 1953Hottest temp......Coolest temp...102 9/02/1953....39 9/30/1912101 9/07/1881....40 9/30/1888..99 9/03/1929....40 9/25/1887..99 9/11/1931....40 9/24/1963..99 9/11/1983....40 9/21/1871Warmest monthly minimum...57 in 191056 in 192154 in 200254 in 198254 in 196054 in 189154 in 2010Coldest monthly max...79 in 188380 in 188880 in 200381 in 190881 in 191881 in 1975Warmest daily minimum...79 9/07/188179 9/02/189878 9/03/189878 9/04/189878 9/11/198378 9/02/2010Coolest daily max...52 9/30/188852 9/24/188753 9/19/187553 9/24/195053 9/25/187953 9/28/198453 9/29/1888............................................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Let's get a September thread going, first week looks interesting with some pretty hot patterns forming around Labor day. Anyone think this could move east? Tell us what you think joe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 cfs2 continues to trend warmer for sep. But it doesn't help the fact the euro op went from +15 anomalies to -15 anomalies in a 24 hour timespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 cfs2 continues to trend warmer for sep. But it doesn't help the fact the euro op went from +15 anomalies to -15 anomalies in a 24 hour timespan.That's a major cold shot...very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 That's a major cold shot...very interesting. Let the cold be from sundown September 13 for 24 hours. My Yom Kippur no food, no water fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 That's a major cold shot...very interesting. Yeah, 0-5 C 850s are nothing to sneeze at in early September. Even some pockets of sub zero 850s into upstate NY and Western Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Euro 2M temperatures on AccuWX Pro get to the mid 60s for highs with this type of an airmass. Definitely chilly and autumnal like to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Euro 2M temperatures on AccuWX Pro get to the mid 60s for highs with this type of an airmass. Definitely chilly and autumnal like to say the least. wow, that's chilly. we'd be in the 40's for lows for sure, maybe even near 40 for some burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Looks like the CFSv2 is getting better at Long Range Accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 The CFSv2 is backing off on the Very Warm Airmass for Mid September, but still slightly above average from September 10th - September 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 The CFS brings back a somewhat warmer than normal pattern relative to the means for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 The CFS brings back a somewhat warmer than normal pattern relative to the means for September. CFSv2.NaT2m.20130831.201309.jpg Yeah, it's looking a bit warm from Mid Month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Yeah, it's looking a bit warm from Mid Month. In mid sept our average highs are in the mid to upper 70's so it sure won't be hot unless it runs around 15 above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 In mid sept our average highs are in the mid to upper 70's so it sure won't be hot unless it runs around 15 above normal. The way it has been jumping back and forth it sure doesn't sound too reliable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 The way it has been jumping back and forth it sure doesn't sound too reliable! To be on the safe side, I'll stick to Near Average Temperatures and Near Average Precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Yeah, it's looking a bit warm from Mid Month. The Euro weeklies are showing the Western Atlantic Ridge at least building back to around the Canadian Maritimes and possibly Eastern New England during the month. So I would guess that the temperature departure here will be near normal to slightly above. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weather-pattern-update-through-the-end-of-september/17222475 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 The Euro weeklies are showing the Western Atlantic Ridge at least building back to around the Canadian Maritimes and possibly Eastern New England during the month. So I would guess that the temperature departure here will be near normal to slightly above. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weather-pattern-update-through-the-end-of-september/17222475 GFS was showing this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 I am thinking we could see some severe storms Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 The first half of the month will likely average near to below normal given current projections. A series of s/w troughs may amplify southeastward into New England from the middle of next week through the 10th-15th. Beyond that time frame we'll probably see heights rise and warm back up for the second half of the month. At this point I'm not seeing an absolute torch or major cold September; we'll likely fall within the -1 to +1 range for temp departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 The first half of the month will likely average near to below normal given current projections. A series of s/w troughs may amplify southeastward into New England from the middle of next week through the 10th-15th. Beyond that time frame we'll probably see heights rise and warm back up for the second half of the month. At this point I'm not seeing an absolute torch or major cold September; we'll likely fall within the -1 to +1 range for temp departures. Guidance seems mixed but agree we shoud see temps near normal overall (mix of some warm/cooler days) the first week to 10 days before more sustained ridging between the 10th and 15th as we see the western atlantic ridge build back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Happy meteorological autumn everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.