Quincy Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I figure it's about time to start a new thread since we're almost halfway through the month. It looks like we're on track for some cool nights and near-seasonable days as we move into the Wednesday 14th through Saturday 17th time-frame this week. Beyond that, there are some signs that we could shift into a more summer-like pattern with a period of warmer temperatures and higher dews. Here's the Day 8-10 mean 500mb heights/anomalies from the 00z operational Euro/GFS... Also, the Day 6-10 Euro mean showed height anomalies of 80+dm across southeastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Another day or so and we can begin to figure out how many days in a row of 70+ dews we have upcoming. Sucks it has to be going into fall and September, but we must move forward and take the punches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Another day or so and we can begin to figure out how many days in a row of 70+ dews we have upcoming. Sucks it has to be going into fall and September, but we must move forward and take the punches When was your last 70+ DP excluding the rainy days? 2 weeks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 When was your last 70+ DP excluding the rainy days? 2 weeks here. July 23rd... just before the 30-day streak ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 So we basically go from this, To this...a more zonal flow of warmer air with a possibly split flow look of lower heights to the south, especially on the ECMWF ensembles with slightly anomalously low heights. What that means is high pressure overhead or just south. Probably warm to muggy at times during this period with maybe seabreezes on the coast. Not a hot pattern, but warm and potentially muggy. Towards the end, you can see that heights are still above normal, but we start seeing some troughing over the northeast. The weeklies try to establish some ridging again in September, so the chance is there for warmer than normal Sept. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Footsteps getting louder and louder. Drummers drumming,,pipers piping CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather4m Pattern is changing...heat / humidity may be on the way back next week: http://www.capecodweather.net/premium-content/premium-discussion/losing-canadian-connection/ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 14, 2013 Author Share Posted August 14, 2013 The 00z OP Euro shows a steady increase in both high and low 2-meter temperatures for each of the following 9 days starting tomorrow. And so it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 The 00z OP Euro shows a steady increase in both high and low 2-meter temperatures for each of the following 9 days starting tomorrow. And so it begins... What begins? More beautiful summer weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 The 00z OP Euro shows a steady increase in both high and low 2-meter temperatures for each of the following 9 days starting tomorrow. And so it begins... 12Z OP Euro has us digging out starting Monday to give us some AOAs through the end of the month. GFS looking similar as well. I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 12Z OP Euro has us digging out starting Monday to give us some AOAs through the end of the month. GFS looking similar as well. I'll take that. Overall flow has a bit of an MCS look to it... with westerly mid level flow over the top of a heat dome (latitude), and SW at the surface. Could focus a nocturnal inflow channel or two should something get going in a positive geostrophic flow regime like that. I was getting my hair cut the other day, and now my neighbor says the same thing, that they feel Fall was coming in too early. Ha -- interesting. That's the perception; autumn here. Not sure how warmly departed it will get, but I can assure people, there is plenty of time to get into triple -H weather again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Mid next week looks like our best chance to break into the HHH pattern again. Not saying it's going to happen right then but the setup is good enough with SW winds. Height anomalies and all are pointing in the right direction but I don't see any "torches" left. I'll be lucky to see 90F again this year imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Looks like my low will be 46°. Even IJD made it down to the 40s but BDL...I have no idea what happened there. How about that 45° at CEF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Looks like my low will be 46°. Even IJD made it down to the 40s but BDL...I have no idea what happened there. How about that 45° at CEF? Thankfully as we discussed winds stayed up..so only a few spots got into the 40's..53.7 here. Avoided that nonsense.We warm from here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Thankfully as we discussed winds stayed up..so only a few spots got into the 40's..53.7 here. Avoided that nonsense.We warm from here!! I see plenty of hourly reports of "CALM": http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KIJD.html http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KCEF.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 I see plenty of hourly reports of "CALM": http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KIJD.html http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KCEF.html LOl I know, there was zero wind last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 LOl I know, there was zero wind last night It was windy all night in the hills,including at 5:00 am running this morning Maybe lowlands where you and others reside it was calm. See ORH obs. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Another glorious AM. 48F for a low. Love these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 rut roh, euro pushing heat back yet another day and then theres the issue with a cut off coastal low day 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 rut roh, euro pushing heat back yet another day and then theres the issue with a cut off coastal low day 8-10 You had a great call on the change to cooler. Don't overplay the hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 You had a great call on the change to cooler. Don't overplay the hand. Hey I just posted what the Euro has I still think it heats up just not upper 90s like Kev has. The ENS were in fact much warmer than the OP last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Euro definitely backed off on the heat next week...looks more like the tame ensembles. Deifnitely still warm, but it takes until Thursday to get 850 temps to +16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Spectacular day, COC definition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 calm here last night and last week on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Euro definitely backed off on the heat next week...looks more like the tame ensembles. Deifnitely still warm, but it takes until Thursday to get 850 temps to +16.what do you make of the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 what do you make of the cutoff I think as this trough lifts out and we get a more zonal flow across Canada, the threat for a cutoff of sorts is there. You already have the riding out West and with the Atlantic ridge looking to come back any s/w may get pinched off. Whether or not that leads to anyhting meaningful for us remains to be see but I could see areas of the SE getting a pretty good dousing of rain. Bit of a tropical connection down there with that convection coming into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 gfs 8/21 to 8/26 looks toasty, maybe a sneakly 90F day for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 I think as this trough lifts out and we get a more zonal flow across Canada, the threat for a cutoff of sorts is there. You already have the riding out West and with the Atlantic ridge looking to come back any s/w may get pinched off. Whether or not that leads to anyhting meaningful for us remains to be see but I could see areas of the SE getting a pretty good dousing of rain. Bit of a tropical connection down there with that convection coming into the Gulf.certainly a high qpf signal for the SE. Euro implies it drifts NE just off the coast. Of course la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Very early but almost ready to bite on the PNA rising, AO falling very low(for this time of year) NAO falling negative as we enter the first week of September, could be reverting back to our August pattern of cool troughiness. Certainly looks like the SE and Midwest is cooler than normal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Very early but almost ready to bite on the PNA rising, AO falling very low(for this time of year) NAO falling negative as we enter the first week of September, could be reverting back to our August pattern of cool troughiness. Certainly looks like the SE and Midwest is cooler than normal . I hope Blizz lol's this.... when he does that to you, that discussion seems to come to fruition haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Nice crisp night for most... coldest seemed to be eastern/central VT south towards CEF and into SNE. Starting to see those upper 30s showing up in the usual spots now everytime we get a crisp airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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