Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 I had breaks of sun here. I told you it probably might feature a lot of clouds, but pretty much as planned. All rain NW. Although I thought central ma might get thunder, but a few miles off.more importantly what's the forecast for Mondays festivities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 I wonder what the last month was that featured a -2.5 or lower at BOS? The last five were Nov 2012, Jul 2009, Jun 2009, Jan 2009, and Apr 2007. Since Apr 2007, there have been 25 months +2.5 and greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 The last five were Nov 2012, Jul 2009, Jun 2009, Jan 2009, and Apr 2007. Since Apr 2007, there have been 25 months +2.5 and greater.just wondering, statistically since say 1920 what's the ratio, seems easier to be higher with high low overnights clouded months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 just wondering, statistically since say 1920 what's the ratio, seems easier to be higher with high low overnights clouded months I think a lot of people will be surprised by this, but going all the way back to 1920, that's 1123 months, this is how it shakes out for months with departures of at least 2.5 degrees... BDL: 192 months above, 241 months below BOS: 193 months above, 194 months below ORH: 196 months above, 232 months below PVD: 148 months above, 259 months below Next we take the above normal months of which there are 729 between the four stations from 1920-Aug 2013, and break down the months where the greater contribution to the 2.5 degree monthly warm departures were due to the highs or lows (the spread between the average monthly high and low departure had to be at least 0.5 degrees to count otherwise I considered it an equal contribution by daytime highs and nighttime lows)... BDL: 77 months from warm nights, 82 months from warm days BOS: 26 months from warm nights, 144 months from warm days ORH: 36 months from warm nights, 135 months from warm days PVD: 55 months from warm nights, 59 months from warm days Looking at it since 2007... BDL: 8 months from warm nights, 11 months from warm days BOS: 6 months from warm nights, 17 months from warm days ORH: 8 months from warm nights, 12 months from warm days PVD: 11 months from warm nights, 8 months from warm days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 I think a lot of people will be surprised by this, but going all the way back to 1920, that's 1123 months, this is how it shakes out for months with departures of at least 2.5 degrees... BDL: 192 months above, 241 months below BOS: 193 months above, 194 months below ORH: 196 months above, 232 months below PVD: 148 months above, 259 months below Next we take the above normal months of which there are 729 between the four stations from 1920-Aug 2013, and break down the months where the greater contribution to the 2.5 degree monthly warm departures were due to the highs or lows (the spread between the average monthly high and low departure had to be at least 0.5 degrees to count otherwise I considered it an equal contribution by daytime highs and nighttime lows)... BDL: 77 months from warm nights, 82 months from warm days BOS: 26 months from warm nights, 144 months from warm days ORH: 36 months from warm nights, 135 months from warm days PVD: 55 months from warm nights, 59 months from warm days Looking at it since 2007... BDL: 8 months from warm nights, 11 months from warm days BOS: 6 months from warm nights, 17 months from warm days ORH: 8 months from warm nights, 12 months from warm days PVD: 11 months from warm nights, 8 months from warm days awesome, thanks. Definitely not what I imagined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 I think a lot of people will be surprised by this, but going all the way back to 1920, that's 1123 months, this is how it shakes out for months with departures of at least 2.5 degrees... BDL: 192 months above, 241 months below BOS: 193 months above, 194 months below ORH: 196 months above, 232 months below PVD: 148 months above, 259 months below Next we take the above normal months of which there are 729 between the four stations from 1920-Aug 2013, and break down the months where the greater contribution to the 2.5 degree monthly warm departures were due to the highs or lows (the spread between the average monthly high and low departure had to be at least 0.5 degrees to count otherwise I considered it an equal contribution by daytime highs and nighttime lows)... BDL: 77 months from warm nights, 82 months from warm days BOS: 26 months from warm nights, 144 months from warm days ORH: 36 months from warm nights, 135 months from warm days PVD: 55 months from warm nights, 59 months from warm days Looking at it since 2007... BDL: 8 months from warm nights, 11 months from warm days BOS: 6 months from warm nights, 17 months from warm days ORH: 8 months from warm nights, 12 months from warm days PVD: 11 months from warm nights, 8 months from warm days Great stats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Again, Snowman comes through...awesome stats dude. The most telling to me is the recent stretch of only 5 months of -2.5 or more departure since 2007, while there have 25 such months with +2.5 or more. It just seems like you would really need to be convinced of a below normal month to forecast one. It seems like +1 is a good WAG to start with most months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Again, Snowman comes through...awesome stats dude. The most telling to me is the recent stretch of only 5 months of -2.5 or more departure since 2007, while there have 25 such months with +2.5 or more. It just seems like you would really need to be convinced of a below normal month to forecast one. It seems like +1 is a good WAG to start with most months. Even more impressive is that these Above Normal months continue with higher normals (30 year normals) than before. I think a lot of people will be surprised by this, but going all the way back to 1920, that's 1123 months, this is how it shakes out for months with departures of at least 2.5 degrees... BDL: 192 months above, 241 months below BOS: 193 months above, 194 months below ORH: 196 months above, 232 months below PVD: 148 months above, 259 months below Next we take the above normal months of which there are 729 between the four stations from 1920-Aug 2013, and break down the months where the greater contribution to the 2.5 degree monthly warm departures were due to the highs or lows (the spread between the average monthly high and low departure had to be at least 0.5 degrees to count otherwise I considered it an equal contribution by daytime highs and nighttime lows)... BDL: 77 months from warm nights, 82 months from warm days BOS: 26 months from warm nights, 144 months from warm days ORH: 36 months from warm nights, 135 months from warm days PVD: 55 months from warm nights, 59 months from warm days Looking at it since 2007... BDL: 8 months from warm nights, 11 months from warm days BOS: 6 months from warm nights, 17 months from warm days ORH: 8 months from warm nights, 12 months from warm days PVD: 11 months from warm nights, 8 months from warm days What normals are you using 1920-2013 normals, the normals specific to that time period, or the 1980-2010 normals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Even more impressive is that these Above Normal months continue with higher normals (30 year normals) than before. What normals are you using 1920-2013 normals, the normals specific to that time period, or the 1980-2010 normals? The normals used were the current 1981-2010 normals. Normals prior to the 1941-1970 set are spotty at best and the method of computation of what's normal do change over time (it's not a straight average when it comes to temperatures). In general the current normals are used when comparing departures from normal from different eras so I followed that standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 We got about 30 minutes of sun--just enough to trigger the storm in G'field. Still hasn't moved--I think it started 2 hours ago. Since this was your last post you also lost power? E.Shelburne, N Colrain and N side of Greenfield got hours of T-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.