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Weekend Storm Disco/Obs (Dec 18th & 19th) ---> Part 2

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

My station is usually pretty spot on, Im now showing 31.3. NOAA had me with a low of 35, and yes I admit my weenie wishcasting coming out

thats why i am here tonight lol :baby: its always that hope, esp after the little surprise icing event in al and ga mid week. you are already cold enough for something other than rain (i am not choosey and will take anything frozen over rain). now you just need the precip! :rambo:

I'm holding at 40 for the last 3 hours or so. Checking obs across the Southeast shows a warm pocket over all of SC and immediate CLT region where its not dropping. Dewpoint is 38 so fog is coming I think. Colder air to the north and east and west, just this nice little warm, humid bubble in the lee.

dont ya just love it :yikes: colder all around and probably wetter all around. i cant believe i am wasting fri night watching waiting and hoping, yet having a temp near 40 lol

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NCBlizzard

NCBlizzard

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Posted

I'm holding at 40 for the last 3 hours or so. Checking obs across the Southeast shows a warm pocket over all of SC and immediate CLT region where its not dropping. Dewpoint is 38 so fog is coming I think. Colder air to the north and east and west, just this nice little warm, humid bubble in the lee.

Really? I've been dropping steadily and now I am at 33 on two very reliable thermometers.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

the NAM is out through 18 hours and doesn't look to be anything special. At 18z, CLT is +1, about the same my place, and down to 0 around western Rutherford to the Mountains, and points northeast of there. A little moisture makes it into southeast Tenn, sw NC, nothing here yet, but some light precip to the southwest into n. Ga and Al. By hour 21, stil not much qpf anywhere, but n. Ga has a spot of .10", all else around here is trace amount. Temps drop to 0 by that hour along 85.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
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I've forgotten my physics and calculus -- what does a ring around the moon with jet contrail slicing through it signify less than 24 hours before a possible storm? 1-4" or 4-8"? My old school math is a little fuzzy :)

Currently 27/27 with no indication of fog.

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

Hey folks. Just got back from work a little earlier. Looks like 18z NAM was bringing back hope just as I left this storm alone earlier today with 18z GFS not so much lol. I had a feeling that the modeling wasn't going to come to a concensus for today either. Guess we will have to see what the 0z runs suggest. Had a couple of people telling me that the local mets are still calling for some light snow in the CLT region with rain at the onset throughout Saturday to early Sunday. Will the snowy hit happen, or will things turn for the worse? * Cues the dramatic music* :violin:

Currently 40 here with 37 DP under partly cloudy skies.

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LKN WX

LKN WX

Posted
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I'm holding at 40 for the last 3 hours or so. Checking obs across the Southeast shows a warm pocket over all of SC and immediate CLT region where its not dropping. Dewpoint is 38 so fog is coming I think. Colder air to the north and east and west, just this nice little warm, humid bubble in the lee.

My temp rose 7 degrees in one hour! Sitting at 38.8 :angry:

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Really? I've been dropping steadily and now I am at 33 on two very reliable thermometers.

Hickory is 36, Lincolnton 34, so your air coming in is colder, taking a while to reach here. I did just drop to 39.

Anyway the 24 hour total precip is .10" in far northeast GA, then most of the upstate except nw tip, and runs to about Gaston /Meck line and points east to just south of RDU. From CAE to eastern central NC has the .25" and more amounts. Trace western NC west of the Charlotte region.

Looks like light precip rates on the back edge, so even if precip does make it to the ground , it looks like sprinkles and light rain. The 925 layer is above zero til several hours after the 850 has cooled enough anyway, so the light precip rates will hardly be able to make snow reach the surface. Maybe if a heavier batch of precip can develop, some pockets of snow would be possible in southern NC or extreme n. SC.

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neatlburbwthrguy

neatlburbwthrguy

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Hickory is 36, Lincolnton 34, so your air coming in is colder, taking a while to reach here. I did just drop to 39.

Anyway the 24 hour total precip is .10" in far northeast GA, then most of the upstate except nw tip, and runs to about Gaston /Meck line and points east to just south of RDU. From CAE to eastern central NC has the .25" and more amounts. Trace western NC west of the Charlotte region.

Looks like light precip rates on the back edge, so even if precip does make it to the ground , it looks like sprinkles and light rain. The 925 layer is above zero til several hours after the 850 has cooled enough anyway, so the light precip rates will hardly be able to make snow reach the surface. Maybe if a heavier batch of precip can develop, some pockets of snow would be possible in southern NC or extreme n. SC.

as always, thanks foothills. do you see any of the precip in north ga falling as light snow?

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

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At 18 hours, there is a nearly isothermal layer above the surface. This about the time saturation is going to start and there is room for wet bulbing to cool further. Same thing at 21 hours except the profile has cooled some with the exception of the surface. Precip rates surely will determine p-type but after this time it looks to be all snow per the 24 hour sounding. I even see snow potential on the 27 hour sounding but saturation is decreasing.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
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no prob....ffc seems to think north georgia (mountain) counties should get some snow tomorrow. they just put out a sws for those counties for tomorrow...

really? i havent seen that yet. guess i will check it out. i am also not the best one to ask here, i can barely read soundings and maps. just enough to get by and figure out when things look good, bad or on the line :lol:

this evening's run have just been a little confusing to me when compared to some of the forecasts (and i dont just mean here, but also out towards west tn etc).

just read the update - sweet! thats close enough for me to drive to pretty easily. of course mby is one county away

Looking good. I hate the back and forth with the models, though.

at least you are on the "good" side of the back and forth, unlike most of us :fever:

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bingcrosbyb

bingcrosbyb

Posted
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James Spann out of ABC3340 in Birmingham getting a little nervous....

A LITTLE UNEASY: Nights like this always make us a little uneasy; a relatively cold airmass in place, an approaching short wave, and a developing low in the northern Gulf. We have mentioned the chance of light rain late tonight and tomorrow morning, with some chance of a few snow flakes over the northern third of the state. But, based on model QPF we have forecasted light precipitation and no serious issues related to weather. But, we all know that things can go wrong with this kind of forecast in this kind of setup.

I am sitting here in the weather office at ABC 33/40 tonight watching the radar loops across the Southeast U.S., and it sure looks like the models might have underestimated the amount of precipitation with this developing storm system. Echoes are well north up into Arkansas and Tennessee, and the rain seems to be increasing in areal coverage over Mississippi.

BOTTOM LINE: Just be aware that there is a chance we might see some kind of surprise late tonight and tomorrow morning. Maybe a little more snow than we bargained for over North Alabama, and heavier rain totals over the central and southern counties of the state. Stay tuned…

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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as always, thanks foothills. do you see any of the precip in north ga falling as light snow?

Probably goin to be just a little too warm, unless your in the mountains very late afternoon or so. I'm my opinion , the best place for the chance of snow, as has been my feeling all along is east of CLT to RDU area and maybe translating to near the coast as the moisture is pulling out overnight.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Looking good. I hate the back and forth with the models, though.

Right now the nam is on its own. Neither the euro or gfs are putting out the qpf that the nam is. Not saying the nam is wrong but until I see other models showing something similar I don't trust it.

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