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Weekend Storm Disco/Obs (Dec 18th & 19th) ---> Part 2


WeatherNC

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For GA,SC... you can forget about it if you live on the lee side of the mountains below 1500 feet. This will be just like the March1,2009 snowstorm where we will have a warm pocket of low level air on the lee side of the apps screwing us. The only chance for accumulating snow would start maybe around spartanburg and north/east from there.

NeGA, i think you'll at least have a shot at 1500 feet. Anybody in the GA,SC, NC mountains about 3000 feet will definitely not have a problem.. it'll just be a matter of how much moisture you can get.

its a close call, and my elevation is the only thing i have going for mby at this point. last year the march one hit about 1500 and higher so my fingers are crossed.

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For GA,SC... you can forget about it if you live on the lee side of the mountains below 1500 feet. This will be just like the March1,2009 snowstorm where we will have a warm pocket of low level air on the lee side of the apps screwing us. The only chance for accumulating snow would start maybe around spartanburg and north/east from there.

NeGA, i think you'll at least have a shot at 1500 feet. Anybody in the GA,SC, NC mountains about 3000 feet will definitely not have a problem.. it'll just be a matter of how much moisture you can get.

Same old BS every coastal storm for our area!:gun_bandana:Get to sit back and watch from Union to Raleigh get plastered while we get light rain and 35°. Not sure why I have any expectations for here....clippers don't pan out EVER and gulf lows find a way to warm nose us. We (NEGa and NW SC) aren't asking for much..1-3" and I'm tickled but apparently that's too much!

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Same old BS every coastal storm for our area!:gun_bandana:Get to sit back and watch from Union to Raleigh get plastered while we get light rain and 35°. Not sure why I have any expectations for here....clippers don't pan out EVER and gulf lows find a way to warm nose us. We (NEGa and NW SC) aren't asking for much..1-3" and I'm tickled but apparently that's too much!

We should be happy with the trends of today. At least the models are keeping hope alive for us. Who knows.....by tomorrow we may be in the sweet spot (if the north and west trend continues)

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I'm not sure if I just don't care anymore about this storm or if the models just wore me down. As long as we've been doing this on weather boards do you ever remember so many different looks from the models? To be honest, I don't.

i recall a lot of different looks, etc. but not really this close to either an event/non-event :)

Same old BS every coastal storm for our area!:gun_bandana:Get to sit back and watch from Union to Raleigh get plastered while we get light rain and 35°. Not sure why I have any expectations for here....clippers don't pan out EVER and gulf lows find a way to warm nose us. We (NEGa and NW SC) aren't asking for much..1-3" and I'm tickled but apparently that's too much!

tell me about it :rolleyes: i do have a little elevation to help some, but not always. whats your elevation? and yes, 1-3" i would be dancing in the streets!

since tomorrow is the weekend, if its snowing nearby i will just hope in the car and head to it.

We should be happy with the trends of today. At least the models are keeping hope alive for us. Who knows.....by tomorrow we may be in the sweet spot (if the north and west trend continues)

thats one good way of looking at it :scooter:

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Local mets have have Hampton Roads at 1 inch or less...even said that this is really a "non event". I would thank that we have the best chance of seeing anything out of this storm for the MidAtl/Southeast, and according to local mets we are in for a non-event. I am hoping the mets are right, if not sunday morning is going to be a complete clusterfu@@, lol

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We should be happy with the trends of today. At least the models are keeping hope alive for us. Who knows.....by tomorrow we may be in the sweet spot (if the north and west trend continues)

Yea I'm good with the trends, they do bring about a 5% chance of flakes for mby...better than none at all i guess. Maybe miracle/drastic changes happen overnight and we get in on the action.

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i recall a lot of different looks, etc. but not really this close to either an event/non-event :)

tell me about it :rolleyes: i do have a little elevation to help some, but not always. whats your elevation? and yes, 1-3" i would be dancing in the streets!

since tomorrow is the weekend, if its snowing nearby i will just hope in the car and head to it.

thats one good way of looking at it :scooter:

Elevation is 900ft the base of Oconee Mtns. God I miss a good ol fashion CAD where it gets trapped against the mountains and never leaves!

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One of the last vis shots tonight, valid 4:30pm EST, to give folks an idea of the incoming cloud cover. Would love to radiate nicely this evening given a forecasted low of 25, but the fact we made it up to 45 today when the high was supposed to be 42, not holding out much hope we will bottom out, especially with what looks to be inbound.

post-382-0-97117300-1292626562.png

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One of the last vis shots tonight, valid 4:30pm EST, to give folks an idea of the incoming cloud cover. Would love to radiate nicely this evening given a forecasted low of 25, but the fact we made it up to 45 today when the high was supposed to be 42, not holding out much hope we will bottom out, especially with what looks to be inbound.

hit 53 this afternoon currently its 47. high clouds are already over head and i can see what appears to be more cloud cover to the sw :( wheres the clear sky when you need it? (like waking up the morning its supposed to snow and the sun is out lol)

Elevation is 900ft the base of Oconee Mtns. God I miss a good ol fashion CAD where it gets trapped against the mountains and never leaves!

well what really sucks for us, is that cads are great but havent happened really in about 5 years. what sucks even more is that we are both east of the mtns, so they zap anything from the nw, plus we get downsloped. we need a CAD so those of us in ne ga and the upstate can shine :sun:

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Just looked at the new RUC 22h.........it has come in with a lot more moisture at 700mb over the foothills. Unless I am reading this wrong, the north trend hasn't finished.

but the simulation didn't drop any precip over us. I saw that too, and the rh fields look good, just not much lift. Maybe its a start though. There was pockets of UVV in nrthern alabama but the bulk was over central SC tomorrow.

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one of the radars I watch upstream is Jackson. Usually in a flat wave situation like this, if they get precip, theres a good chance it gets just north of the 85 corridor. Right now, its just breaking out there, but we'll see. I've seen that not be the case too, but I'd feel a lot bettr to see it start there.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DGX&loop=yes

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hit 53 this afternoon currently its 47. high clouds are already over head and i can see what appears to be more cloud cover to the sw :( wheres the clear sky when you need it? (like waking up the morning its supposed to snow and the sun is out lol)

28/25 at the airport as of 6:42pm under a 88% waxing gibbous of the moon :snowman:

Are any of those returns in middle TN reaching the ground??

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

416 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-019>021-

048>055-088>092-180015-

CARROLL-CHESTER-CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-

DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-

HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-OBION-

PEMISCOT-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TIPTON-WEAKLEY-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLYTHEVILLE...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...

JACKSON...JONESBORO...KENNETT...MEMPHIS...WEST MEMPHIS

416 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2010

.NOW...

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND EASTERN

ARKANSAS..MOVING EAST AT NEAR 35 MPH. SOME SHOWERS WILL CHANCE OVER

TO SNOW FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES DROP OFF BY THE EVENING HOURS.

$$

CML

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Well what a suprise. Loving how the Uwharie Mountains (MBY) might be ground zero. Time will tell. Noticed after the fog lifted today, we keep alot of whispy low clouds. The humidity is way up guys and I haven't looked at any data/model, but you can rest assured moisture is so high, that clouds in the Triad will be a sure bet tonight. The Airport got up to 40 for a high today. The mean will check in at -8 for the day. 16 staright days of below normal temps,

Currently its 32 degrees with a DP of 30 and Fog / Mist !

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You guys getting in the soup/Fog yet. Be something if we start having freezing drizzle/fog all night.

Roads worse this morning than yesterday with the fog/freezing mist, very icy. Low this morning was 29.8 and only reached 33.8 for a high today. Fog has already building in with a current temperature of 31.1 Looks like tonight will be a repeat around here.

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A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7000 FEET REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL

4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA

NEVADA.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET.

* SNOW LEVELS: WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 6000 FEET AND 8000 FEET

THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

WILL BE AT AND ABOVE 8000 FEET.

OT but imagine this!

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