CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Wow, where do we stand in terms of total Boston rainfall this month? IIRC a couple weeks ago on the news they were saying it was already the 12th rainiest June on record? I think 4th now. I know near my old place of living in Dorchester, they are at 10.6" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Whats amazing is that even ahead of the rainfall, spots in CNY like the large stem Mohawk River at Utica is already in flood stage. That'll get real interesting with another 2-4" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I think 4th now. I know near my old place of living in Dorchester, they are at 10.6" for the month. Correct. Rank Value Ending Date 1 13.20 6/30/1982 2 11.58 6/30/1998 3 10.09 6/30/2006 4 9.84 6/30/2013 (4) 5 9.13 6/30/1931 6 8.63 6/30/1959 7 8.05 6/30/1922 8 7.79 6/30/1881 9 7.74 6/30/1986 10 7.25 6/30/1875 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I think 4th now. I know near my old place of living in Dorchester, they are at 10.6" for the month. Nice! Hey maybe we make a run at the top spot if we get some sultan rains this next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I tend to agree with the axis of precip being focused further W right now closer to the ULL. As the ULL moves N and we develop a sharper trough we can establish a deeper southerly flow/fetch over the Atlantic which will bring heavier rains into the Eastern areas of the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 What an SOS for VT. Mt Mansfield might lose 800ft in elevation from rock slides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 What an SOS for VT. Mt Mansfield might lose 800ft in elevation from rock slides. Nooooo don't flatten my neighborhood atmospheric lifting mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Powder Freak Stay safe! man and get some good pics ! ha ha also unless this is misleading clouds seem sock'd in to the BERKS down thru the Ct valley (maybe some breaks S of BDL but not much heating I wouldn't think) http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=ALB&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis DXR down to LL over to Forky I wonder how big the storms can get later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Radar estimates showing 3-4" so far in the DUJ area of PA with many roads closed and first floor flooding on-going. Lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Powder Freak Stay safe! man and get some good pics ! ha ha also unless this is misleading clouds seem sock'd in to the BERKS down thru the Ct valley (maybe some breaks S of BDL but not much heating I wouldn't think) http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=ALB&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis DXR down to LL over to Forky I wonder how big the storms can get later I'm not overly worried, haha. Flooding is one of those things you know it if you get it. We'd have to see something nearing the 1927 flood in Stowe to really get significantly affected. Geology has allowed for at least decent drainages in this area, aside from like road washouts or rock slides up in the Notch. We faired generally ok in Irene here locally (though other areas in VT are much more prone to massive flash flooding), and although this area drains the entire eastern watershed of VT's highest peak and neighboring peaks, there must've been some whoppers of floods 100s of years ago because the waterways seem carved out enough to avoid real property damage and stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Backdoor front is pretty interesting to see. Obviously weak/shallow back this way but KDXR has NE winds. The front also is bisecting Long Island with NE winds at KMTP and KBID with SSW winds at KISP/KFRG. Turbulent mixing should wash out the front pretty quickly from metro NYC up north and east. Will probably stall somewhere over CT and that could really be a focus for heavy rain later today. Very shallow air mass, too... just judging by hi res imagery. I bet the soundings are like 1,500 for inversion. CT DPs are in the low 70s despite some NE drift, and in the 60s yet up this way in N Mass. I agree with the mixing out... I think also this was suggested by details in the NAM solutions yesterday, though as usual...they are just off enough to make the model annoying. I don't know though... I think with such an enormous theta-e content, if the sun breaks for more than an hour somebody might deal with a pretty impressive downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 SOS on the gfs the next 5 days http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_ptot.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I wonder if Dubois will make national news. They've probably has 5-7" of rain this hour and the terrain there is mountainous. That's an epic SOS cell there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 no way that got that much I wonder if Dubois will make national news. They've probably has 5-7" of rain this hour and the terrain there is mountainous. That's an epic SOS cell there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 SOS on the gfs the next 5 days http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_ptot.gif Thankfully spread out over 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Waves of brighter light passing through the windows up along Rt 2 in N. Mass. Hi res imagery suggests as Ryan noted earlier, we may see more substantive clearing progress NE as the afternoon wears on. Yeah, it appears they are just sort of spooked by the anomalously high DPs in concert with a stalled out warm front in the area... I agree with that risk... but I'd have to say, seeing as it is not actually raining, and has not rained sufficiently to warrant a flood concern in the last 5 days, and the radar is really not that lit up immediately up stream, ...basing a Flood Watch assessment on an implied set up is probably a lower risk advisory. That's not to say they are wrong for issuing it. Things could change in a hurry. With such a high water content, a typical downpour gets enhanced and you can get that blinding silver air sieges of rain. FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA346 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY....A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND LATE TODAY AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BOUNDARY WILLLEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAYTODAY. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT MOREWIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS INPLACE...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITHINTHUNDERSTORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 no way that got that much I bet they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Radar estimates 4.2" and you know it's underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Heh, Kevin, you should go to NE Kansas, where there is a Heat Advisory and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch simultaneously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Radar estimates 4.2" and you know it's underdone. Why is that ... ? I am less familiar with the technology, but those rad estimates were way off here for a couple of those bigger QPF events earlier this month, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Waves of brighter light passing through the windows up along Rt 2 in N. Mass. Hi res imagery suggests as Ryan noted earlier, we may see more substantive clearing progress NE as the afternoon wears on. Yeah, it appears they are just sort of spooked by the anomalously high DPs in concert with a stalled out warm front in the area... I agree with that risk... but I'd have to say, seeing as it is not actually raining, and has not rained sufficiently to warrant a flood concern in the last 5 days, and the radar is really not that lit up immediately up stream, ...basing a Flood Watch assessment on an implied set up is probably a lower risk advisory. That's not to say they are wrong for issuing it. Things could change in a hurry. With such a high water content, a typical downpour gets enhanced and you can get that blinding silver air sieges of rain. FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 346 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 ...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... .A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOMORROW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. How does the BDF interact with the ULL? Does it force things futher west, or not strong enoough to have any effect? Some of the maps show less precip in NE Mass running to NE CT, wonder if this was due to the BDF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 How does the BDF interact with the ULL? Does it force things futher west, or not strong enoough to have any effect? Some of the maps show less precip in NE Mass running to NE CT, wonder if this was due to the BDF. The BDF won't force the ULL to do anything different but what it may do is provide a focus for lift as the ULL or shortwave approaches from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 How does the BDF interact with the ULL? Does it force things futher west, or not strong enoough to have any effect? Some of the maps show less precip in NE Mass running to NE CT, wonder if this was due to the BDF. BD boundary doesn't force deep layer features... In fact, I have seen synoptic pattern change en masse, while a disconnect persisted beneath down here where the shallow air mass is in place. But anyway, it could serve to enhance rain rates where it causes a bit of addition lift as the flow around the trough runs up over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Why is that ... ? I am less familiar with the technology, but those rad estimates were way off here for a couple of those bigger QPF events earlier this month, too. It seems like these heavy PWAT airmasses with warm process type rains just get underplayed on storm total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Thanks for the explanations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 That may be the worst attempt to plot the outline of Winnipesaukee since the Winnepiseogee tribe first tried mapping it in the 1600's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 That may be the worst attempt to plot the outline of Winnipesaukee since the Winnepiseogee tribe first tried mapping it in the 1600's. Better than Sebago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Better than Sebago... lol, Looks like it no longer exists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Sun out here now. 70.7/70. Hopefully can get some storms later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 sun poking threw here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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