Quincy Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 We haven't had much in the way of severe thunderstorm recently and although we may have to wait until the middle of next week for another legitimate threat, we may still see some thunderstorm opportunities before then. The computer models indicate a slight risk for isolated thunder both this afternoon and tomorrow. There isn't much of a trigger, but with warmer temperatures and gradually increasing dew-points, some instability will try to work in. I think the risk today and tomorrow is relatively low and is focused on inland areas. Here the higher resolution models and even GFS grid data indicate some localized convective activity. Sunday could feature a few storms, but I'm not particularly excited by the potential there. The second half of Tuesday could be a different story if we can get the timing of a few players just right. This thread will help differentiate between generic discussions and banter, specifically to thunderstorm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Damage?Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Don't know about anyone else, but I am craving damage. Or at least some severe flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 There isn't anyone who doesn't like damaging storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 There isn't anyone who doesn't like damaging storms we agree on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 There isn't anyone who doesn't like damaging storms we agree on something. Not every day, otherwise dry and pleasant wx would be exciting. This damage drought is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Are we lookin at anything tmrw , a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Are we lookin at anything tmrw , a chance? SPC says mainly north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 GFS and Euro hinting at something next Saturday with a cold front sweeping through. Location is key and if we can warm sector that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 GFS and Euro hinting at something next Saturday with a cold front sweeping through. Location is key and if we can warm sector that would be great. Yeah next Saturday certainly has some interest. Right now the GFS and Euro have a pretty strong area of low pressure moving through southeastern Canada and with a strong high pressure just off the coast there will be an axis of very strong winds aloft, however, there appears to be somewhat of a disconnect between the stronger lower tropospheric winds and stronger winds aloft. Also looks perhaps there could be two cold fronts that move through with the secondary front the stronger of the two...the stronger llvl winds associated with the initial front. Anyways, being a week out so much is going to change so not even worth it to nitpick over such small details right now. It's a shame though we can't get stronger shear for Wednesday...Wednesday will have some moderate to extreme instability across the region. The GFS actually though does break off a piece of stronger westerlies aloft and moves them through the region, likely associated with a piece of s/w energy moving through aloft...so do have to keep an eye on this and the strength of the s/w. Also a stronger area of UL winds to the north of us which could offer some support. Nothing excitingly immanent as of now but certainly some potential on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 SPC says mainly north of the Pike. Areas north of the Pike have a relatively better chance tomorrow (well today technically), but really anywhere in northern New England has the best chance, if any chance at all. MOS is putting 20-25% chance of t-storms for areas in NH and VT, which isn't even saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 ggem looks fantastic for next Saturday. Not that it matters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Areas north of the Pike have a relatively better chance tomorrow (well today technically), but really anywhere in northern New England has the best chance, if any chance at all. MOS is putting 20-25% chance of t-storms for areas in NH and VT, which isn't even saying much. The spc wrf had some storms up north for today. Also for the D2, this sounds like a setup for frustration. :> ...NERN U.S... UPPER RIDGING WILL FAVOR MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE A FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE DISTURBANCE OR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO SRN QB MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 The spc wrf had some storms up north for today. Also for the D2, this sounds like a setup for frustration. :> ...NERN U.S... UPPER RIDGING WILL FAVOR MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE A FEW TSTMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY DESPITE THE LACK OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE DISTURBANCE OR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO SRN QB MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. Yeah we'll see what happens. I also looked at the SPC WRF as well. NH looks more favorable 16Z-20Z but I'd go with the latter end of that time period to see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Looking n to e towards CON and beyond. Few showers and a light storm or two, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Nice D3 for NNE ...NERN U.S...DEEP WNWLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSSSRN CANADA INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. STRONGBOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 80SWHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SBCAPEON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG SRNFRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH QB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.FORECAST SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT DEEP ROTATION BUT WITHDEEP WLY FLOW IT APPEARS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARYSEVERE THREATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Like....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Looks like a big day for SNE tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Looks like a big day for SNE tomorrow Now you aren't even trying. This screams big day for SNE... .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGE ERODES SOMEWHAT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN/OH VLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO PA/NY. MODEST MID LEVEL COOLING WITH 500 MB TEMPS COOLING ABOUT 2C WILL RESULT IN BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SIMILAR INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WIND FIELD IS EVEN LIGHTER TOMORROW WITH WEAKER 0-6KM SHEAR SO NOTHING MORE THAN PULSE STORMS EXPECTED WITH HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT CANT RULE OUT A WET MICROBURST GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Looks like a big day for SNE tomorrow Huge! Expect heavy, heavy damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Big day for dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 00z GFS/GGEM/Ukie says Thursday is a potential day to monitor for the Northeast region in general, especially the latter, which has a 994 mb low in southern Quebec and a rather robust, negatively tilted shortwave moving into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Big day today as we discussed yesterday. Tons of storms..some with wet microbursts ..many with damaging lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 What is damaging lightning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 What is damaging lightning? It's the opposite of non-damaging lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 What is damaging lightning?Lightning that strikes homes and trees and causes damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 hopefully a tornado destroys Kevin's house in July with no injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Can someone tell me where this mid-level low is that BOX's discussion refers to? I'm looking at spc mesoanalysis and I'm not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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