Ground Scouring Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 PDS Svr watch for NE IL with multiple discrete supercells organizing? Hmm. Why? It seems reasonable to me given the forcing associated with the main impulse over NW IA. The secondary mesoscale low near Savanna, IL, is not likely to deepen substantially over/near the warm sector in the next few hours, that is, until the main impulse arrives. As Kevin said, the PDS SVR seems well-thought-out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like a TDS just west of Winnebago. Nothing on RHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 DVN radar was showing a 71, -24 knot velocity couplet next to Winnebago (last scan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 DVN radar was showing a 71, -24 knot velocity couplet next to Winnebago (last scan) Possible vortex hole at 0.9o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Why? It seems reasonable to me given the forcing associated with the main impulse over NW IA. The secondary mesoscale low near Savanna, IL, is not likely to deepen substantially over/near the warm sector in the next few hours, that is, until the main impulse arrives. As Kevin said, the PDS SVR seems well-thought-out. I said that prior to the expansion of the tornado watch. And yeah, the CC lowering looks to have been either short lived or a glitch. Still an intense mid level meso though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 400 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS NORTHERN INDIANA SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LAKE ERIE LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. ..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH LIKELY SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST OF FINDLAY OHIO TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF RACINE WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 298...WW 299... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A COMPACT BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACTS ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EXISTS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW MORE HOURS OF TORNADO POTENTIAL IN WATCH 298. EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION WITH ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE DERECHO OR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT. THIS TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO EARLY EVENING. PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POSSIBILITIES WILL BE GREATEST WITHIN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF WATCH 300. WITH TIME...MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP AS THE MCS RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MI/NORTHERN IND...AND INTO NORTHWEST OH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 For those without level 2 radar, the base scan got range folded but the higher scans are still going just as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 90/90 wind probs Haven't seen both PDS watches together in a LONG time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 tornado warning south of Prairie Du Chien WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 New meso formed suddenly south of Rockford. Storm merger occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Clearly defined lake breeze moving through DuPage County. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LOT&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Rockford storm looks like crap visually. No distinct anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Livestream news from Rockford Illinois http://www.wifr.com/livestream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Temps and dews went down here but are starting to creep back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 New meso formed suddenly south of Rockford. Storm merger occurring. The splitting off of the southernmost TOR-warned cell could yield interesting results as the new cell interacts with the Rockford cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And I am concerned with that merger and the move se down the boundary when intersection occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0406 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SWRN WI...NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 298... VALID 122106Z - 122200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 298 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WW...WHICH WAS RECENTLY EXTENDED EWD BY WFO CHICAGO. DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN IA ACROSS NWRN IL...AND INTERSECTS A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR CHICAGO. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT OVER CENTRAL/NERN IA...AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO NRN IL BY EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELL SVR TSTMS OVER NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2. STORMS INTERACTING WITH WWD-MOVING LAKE BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY ENCOUNTER HIGHER LOW-LEVEL SRH OVER NRN IL BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS. SVR TSTMS OVER SWRN WI ARE IN A REGION OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL ALSO POSE A TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 2029Z. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 looks like hail size may be increasing in the storm that was the Amboy storm. VIL has maxed out for several pixels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Good rotation near Guttenberg IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 keep hearing thunder....not sure from what though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Marine influence tightening it's grip here; 65/61 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like cells in IA are beginning to take off as well, two tornado warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Livestream news from Rockford Illinois http://www.wifr.com/livestream theyre preparing to take shelter underground.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The Paw Paw storm is tightening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Cells should be encountering lake breeze before too long here....we'll see if it tightens up this HP junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 80 kts effective bulk shear in extreme SE MI... nutty Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 theyre preparing to take shelter underground.... Tiniest TOR Warning ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The line of storms crossing I-39 are going to intersect around Kane county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 theyre preparing to take shelter underground.... Tiniest TOR Warning ever? the best part was him going street by street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Right-mover is not far from Parkersburg, IA: TORNADO WARNINGIAC017-023-122200-/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0014.130612T2125Z-130612T2200Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA425 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHWESTERN BREMER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...* UNTIL 500 PM CDT* AT 422 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALLISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TOROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRISWILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CLARKSVILLE...SHELL ROCK...WAVERLY AND PLAINFIELD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.