ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 it's too bad there's so much garbage filling the sky across the c/e half of NYS and into SNE. not going to get a whole lot of good fat CAPE with a lot of 76/63 t/td readings Ywah I was saying we'd have a shot (esp western SNE) at some decent storms if we cleared out by 18-21z...but it doesn't really look that great. We have that filtered/partial sunshine. Not gonna get it done for widespread stuff. It'll stil bear watching if you are way west since helicity is still decent. So any storms that do survive may try and produce a quick spinup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 68/60 in BTV. with the warm front in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 12 miles from Great Barrington!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Watch up for Berk and LFD cty As we posted shortly ago. Expect expansion east as storms get going now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 The winds aloft will increase a bit, but man if only we had real good CAPE. Great turning. RAD_KBOX_NVW.gif I know, right? Still bears watching... I do like the pocket of near 70F dews around SWF that is poking into far W CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Wiz good luck man, glad u have some time off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I know, right? Still bears watching... I do like the pocket of near 70F dews around SWF that is poking into far W CT. Yeah the kinematics alone certainly make it worthy to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Noyes says Bleed the Freak @MattNoyesNECN: Though the Severe T'storm Watch does not extend farther east into New England, severe weather may bleed east late evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Wiz good luck man, glad u have some time off! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Noyes says Bleed the Freak @MattNoyesNECN: Though the Severe T'storm Watch does not extend farther east into New England, severe weather may bleed east late evening noyes is a true weenie...too bad he doesnt post here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* DAMAGE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFNORTHWEST CONNECTICUTWESTERN MASSACHUSETTSNEW YORKNORTHERN PENNSYLVANIASOUTHERN VERMONT* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PMUNTIL 1100 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...DAMAGETHE DAMAGE WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES SOUTH OFBINGHAMTON NEW YORK TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTICA NEW YORK. FORA COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCHOUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A DAMAGE WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR DAMAGE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORDAMAGE AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. &&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 239...WW 240...DISCUSSION...DAMAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ANDINTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ASREGION IS GLANCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH.DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TOMID 60S HAS YIELDED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPEVALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COINCIDES WITH AKINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A RELATIVELY STRONG WSWLY WINDFIELD. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGE.AVIATION...DAMAGE @ryanhanrahan: Storms are firing up near Binghamton NY and also in the Poconos. Those move into CT after 5. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 In Great Barrington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Sun's been out about an hour...temp up from 68 to 74. DP 65 74/65 ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 radar looks pretty dead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Gettin muggy N of Bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 noyes is a true weenie...too bad he doesnt post here...I think he did at EasternHe was intimidated by Blizzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Storms are really struggling. The ones that have gone near BGM or even in NE PA and the Catskills are collapsing pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Radar lighting up nicely now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Storms are really struggling. The ones that have gone near BGM or even in NE PA and the Catskills are collapsing pretty fast. Wondering if we have to end up waiting for the stuff in in western NY state associated with that weak s/w...if so, then we are probably looking at more like 00z to 02z in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Pretty thick cloud shield out here. Solid OVC. About midway between Albany and Oneonta. Car thermo (usually reasonable) reads 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Storms are really struggling. The ones that have gone near BGM or even in NE PA and the Catskills are collapsing pretty fast. Radar lighting up nicely now Ha ha -- you two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 At a McDonalds in Great Barrington...merky clouds here as well. WRF showed stuff exploding around here by 6 so let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Ha ha -- you two I think Kevin was looking at KLNX not KBOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Might need to wait for the s/w to come further east...fine...allows more time for destabilization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Model data was split, some where gung ho with some initial cluster reaching NY/CT/MA around 5. there was better consensus about the main deal being closer to 8. This is especially the case due to a lack of sufficient daytime heating and perhaps models overdoing DP's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Normalized Cape values are around 0.15 which isn't too bad so Cape profile isn't incredibly weak. The issue right now seems to be some weak SB CIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 All socked in in N ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Winds at ALB/POU are SE at the sfc per mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Just broke out in sun here. Valley is still foggy, but definitely sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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