Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 In any case, there looks to be a couple of hours of clearing in Southern MI after this line rolls through. Don't think the line is organized enough to really stabilize the atmosphere, either. The southern two tiers of counties in MI are close to getting primed, IMO. Yeah it isn't and the Southern end is moving East Northeast, it should leave most of SEMI untouched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Not to mention, oh, the 4 stovepipe-wedge tornadoes in Will County. Ok, now I remember that day better. Before my wx forum days, but I remember tracking those storms. Talk about an action packed day in the metro. Those other two dates I think I ended up in the stratiform rain and thunder on the northern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Northern Illinois might get another round of cloud clearing by 3pm. That burst could help things a bit. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Yeah it isn't and the Southern end is moving East Northeast, it should leave most of SEMI untouched. Yep. Mesoanalysis shows a nice reservoir of MLCAPE that should have no problem advecting into SEMI in the next few hours. Does anyone know if DTX launched an 18z sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Northern Illinois might get another round of cloud clearing by 3pm. That burst could help things a bit. We'll see Hopefully we'll get another mesoscale update from LOT this afternoon. They thought things would hold off in Chicago until after dark but didn't sound too excited about severe prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Yep. Mesoanalysis shows a nice reservoir of MLCAPE that should have no problem advecting into SEMI in the next few hours. Does anyone know if DTX launched an 18z sounding? I have to assume they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 Hopefully we'll get another mesoscale update from LOT this afternoon. They thought things would hold off in Chicago until after dark but didn't sound too excited about severe prospects. There's a little bit in the updated aviation: ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS ALSO AIDING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...BEFORE MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...BEGINNING TO FEEL MORE CONFIDENT WITH TIMING OF BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA AND TS TODAY. AM MONITORING A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS IOWA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHATEVER DEVELOPS ACROSS THAT AREA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING...REACHING THE TERMINALS AROUND THE 01Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 As it turns out today will be my only available day to chase this whole event...and it doesn't look worthy. Hoping for a lightning photo op tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 As it turns out today will be my only available day to chase this whole event...and it doesn't look worthy. Hoping for a lightning photo op tonight though. If you've seen one F-5 mega wedge, you've seen 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 another little update out of DVN... .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWESTILLINOIS AT 18Z. PATCHY IFR AND LOW MVFR CONDITIONS IN DRIZZLEAND LOW CLOUDS BEING FOUND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUETHROUGH THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY AFFECTING KDBQ BUT ALSO KCID TERMINALEARLY ON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT KMLI AND KBRL...GUSTY S/SW WINDS10-20KTS WITH MVFR CIGS PREVALENT AND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON WITH CIGS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY LIFT INTO VFR BY EVE.THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 21Z ESPECIALLY OVERSOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. HANDLED WITH VCTS AT KBRLFOR NOW UNTIL THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND CAN BETTER TIME POTENTIALIMPACTS TO KBRL. RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS WITH STORMS WITH STRONGWINDS AND HAIL. WITH THE STORMS MOVING OFF LATER THIS EVENINGANTICIPATE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERSAND SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO WED AM... AND HANDLED WITH VCSH WORDINGFOR NOW. ALSO WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT CIGS BACK DOWN INTOMVFR WITH SOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LOW IFR CONDITIONS NOT OUT OF QUESTIONOVER NORTHEAST IOWA VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY... WHICH COULD AFFECTKDBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 As it turns out today will be my only available day to chase this whole event...and it doesn't look worthy. Hoping for a lightning photo op tonight though. I would think the juiciness should provide some nice lightning shots....good luck joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I have to assume they did. They actually did not. They said bad timing with the convective line going through that would contaminate it, and they are still pre frontal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Wow 2500 j/kg over me right now, dewpoint is 66, LI's of -7 are all very impressive. Could use a little more shear here but I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 They actually did not. They said bad timing with the convective line going through that would contaminate it, and they are still pre frontal Yeah that make sense I guess, though I'd rather they did as there would be some usefulness to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 The RAP 4 and 6 hour forecasts actually put in some higher effective shear to the I-80 area and Michigan. I could imagine the SPC issuing a tornado watch there. 1km helicity seems to be pretty substatial, too. Sometimes I don't put much stock in the helicity, because it seems that such small model differences could change helicity by 50 or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Hopefully we'll get another mesoscale update from LOT this afternoon. They thought things would hold off in Chicago until after dark but didn't sound too excited about severe prospects. Clouds should still start to clear out temporarily by 3pm. We'll see. Some precipitation just popped over me in dupage out of nowhere. Still banking on some clearing around 3-4. I'm hoping for some boost with that. Otherwise im packing shop and knitting a sweater til friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 MCD 0837... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0837 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/ERN KS....NE MO...SRN IA...FAR SW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 281837Z - 282030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM S-CNTRL KS NEWD INTO SERN IA. SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY SVR THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...SOME GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...AND STRONG WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LEE LOW ACROSS W-CNTRL KS/WRN OK PANHANDLE WITH A SUBTLE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING NEWD TO ANOTHER SFC LOW IN CNTRL IA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE. AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING ACROSS CNTRL KS AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY. FARTHER NE...CLOUDS ARE PROHIBITING SIGNIFICANT WARMING BUT A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. 12Z RAOBS SAMPLED THE EML WELL AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 2000-4000 J PER KG/ EXISTS AREAWIDE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN -- I.E SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES -- THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN ADDITION TO AN MCV MOVING EWD INTO N-CNTRL KS AND THE ONGOING TSTM ACROSS E-CNTRL KS. MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE LIFTING NWWD ACROSS N-CNTRL/NE KS AND FAR SE NEB. INITIATION IN AREAS FARTHER SW /S-CNTRL KS/ WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF INITIATION OCCURS AT ALL. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 TO 50 KT/...AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS...ROTATING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER...INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A FEW TORNADOES...ARE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tamperatures are rising behind that line, down in Allen Park and the car thermometer has jumped 5 degrees already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tamperatures are rising behind that line, down in Allen Park and the car thermometer has jumped 5 degrees already. Where at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 75/67 in the Brook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Where at? Do you not know what Allen Park is? It's like 5 minutes from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Do you not know what Allen Park is? It's like 5 minutes from you I know where Allen Park is, lol. I'm wondering where in Allen Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I know where Allen Park is, lol. I'm wondering where in Allen Park. Oh haha good. I was about to say you live in a rock or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 SE and S Central Iowa starting to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tornado watch out for areas west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Beefy MCD via LOT... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL228 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...225 PM CDTCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH THECHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN WHICHCOULD BRING ABOUT FLOODING ISSUES IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE BEENTHE WETTEST THE PAST FEW DAYS.THE LATEST HAND SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARYBETWEEN I-80 AND I-88...WHICH IS LEADING NORTHWARD A MORE DEEPLYMIXED WARM SECTOR AS EVIDENCED BY THE GUSTINESS TO THE SOUTH.MOISTURE RICH AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 60STO A FEW 70 DEW POINT READINGS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE MID-AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE DEEP MOIST PLUME EXTENDINGFROM TX THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NUMEROUS IMPULSES ARETRAVERSING THIS FLOW WITH A WELL-DEFINED ONE MOVING INTONORTHEAST KS/NORTHERN MO.THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE THE LIKELY IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF IT ACROSS NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA/FARWESTERN IL...AND FIRST RADAR ECHOES AND DEEPER CLOUD GROWTHS ARENOW APPEARING IN SOUTHERN IA. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAINIMPACT IN OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS IT EVOLVES EAST ONTHE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET/MOISTURETRANSPORT NOSE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SCATTERED WARM AIR ADVECTIONBASED STORMS AHEAD OF THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF HAS BEENPRIMARILY QUIET WITH LIMITED CONVERGENCE...AND IN ADDITION SOMEEARLIER CONVECTION DOWNSTATE LIKELY HARBORED SOME OF OUR DEEPERINSTABILITY RETURN. SO COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED PRIOR TO6 PM IN THE CWA WITH A SMALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THAT TIME.WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISEXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT FROM THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTREGION EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THISEVE. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING IN WILL KEEP AMPLEINSTABILITY IN PLACE TONIGHT...WITH MUCAPE READINGS AROUND2000-3000 J/KG. SO PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR HAIL BUT EVEN MORE SOORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MUCH OF THESUITE OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE. MCVS HAVE BEEN FREQUENT THEPAST 72 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AND CERTAINLY COULD SEE ANOTHERSUCH FEATURE OR TWO EVOLVE INTO CENTRAL IL OR POSSIBLY FURTHERNORTH PRESENTING A WIND THREAT. THE PRIMARY TIME WOULD SEEM TO BE6-11 PM...WITH CHICAGOLAND...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERNHALF...POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN IN THE LATTER HALF OF THAT TIMEWINDOW. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH ATLEAST MID-EVE AND MAYBE LATER BASED SIMPLY ON THE HIGH DEW POINTAIR...SO THERE REMAINS SOME SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES NAMELYIF ANY QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP. WHILE CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT AND MODE HAVE BECOME MORE CONFIDENT IN THEFORECAST...PLACEMENT AND EVEN TIMING REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUMCONFIDENCE. IT WOULD CERTAINLY SEEM LIKE I-80 SOUTHWARD WOULD HAVETHE SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THE WIND THREAT.THE WEST-TO-EAST NATURE OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVEDEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY...COULD VERY WELL PRESENT AFLOODING THREAT. HEAVY RAIN VARIABLES REMAIN IN PLACE...INCLUDINGHIGH ABSOLUTE MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES/...ANDFORECAST DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION BY EVENING. THISWILL BE MAXIMIZED IF TRAINING CAN OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN ADVANCE OFANY DEVELOPING MCV THAT DOES NOT HAVE A QUICK FORWARD RATE OFMOTION. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FORTHE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS.THE REST OF THE PUBLIC DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Well well, crap-vection has developed... Wonder if that will hinder chances around here, or strengthen them with the warm front near by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Great read right there. Nicely done by LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 yeah, nice disco, not surprised to read they are favoring south closer to I80. Should see some decent training down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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