powderfreak Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 My dew point is down to 27F right now....feels so nice and dry. Almost fall-like with a breeze and temps in the 60s. I wonder when the next time we see dews in the 20s will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 NAM up to its old tricks again. I'm wondering ... It has a NW bias in the winter. Not sure about summer though - But, heh, it also has a bias of just sucking. It's not a formally recognized category in the verification numbers over at NCEP, but if there ever were a graphical curve for sucking the NAM would be showing the other models who's boss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I'm wondering ... It has a NW bias in the winter. Not sure about summer though - But, heh, it also has a bias of just sucking. It's not a formally recognized category in the verification numbers over at NCEP, but if there ever were a graphical curve for sucking the NAM would showing the other models who's boss! I don't trust it with any tropical stuff..cumulus parametization issues I suppose, especially when interactions occur with a mid latitude trough. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 SPECTACULAR day, wow so blessed to work outside for a living, 70 and sunny first negative departure day in over a week -3 on the day. Looks like we are in store for a nice weekend back this way should clear out quickly on Saturday with some delicious dews.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 BTW, can someone confirm the NCEP NAM does not use a cumulus parametiztion scheme? I know other WRFs do...but I thought the NCEP NAM does not. I was trying to look for info, but tough to go through the documentation. I know COMET has a tutorial on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 SPECTACULAR day, wow so blessed to work outside for a living Amen to that. Working outdoors on days like this is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 BTW, can someone confirm the NCEP NAM does not use a cumulus parametiztion scheme? I know other WRFs do...but I thought the NCEP NAM does not. I was trying to look for info, but tough to go through the documentation. I know COMET has a tutorial on models. http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/nambpcp1.htm http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/nambcp1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/nambpcp1.htm http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/nambcp1.htm I know Met Ed has those modules, but just wanted to confirm on the fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I know Met Ed has those modules, but just wanted to confirm on the fly. Can you view those docs without logging in? The NMM-B uses a Betts-Miller-Janjic' (BMJ) convective parameterization. This scheme adjusts the model temperature and moisture profiles toward reference profiles with temperature resembling a moist adiabat and dewpoint depressions of 4 to 6°C. The convective precipitation rate is determined simply as the rate of change of precipitable water values as the model sounding is forced toward the reference sounding. Reference profiles only affect the model layers between convective cloud base and convective cloud top-all other model layers in the NMM-B are not directly changed by convection. Thus, precipitation is extracted from moisture in the pre-convective sounding between the lifting condensation level (LCL) and equilibrium level (EL), and the sub-cloud layer is not cooled from convective downdrafts. The scheme is highly sensitive to the reference moisture profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Can you view those docs without logging in? No, but I just did since I have an account. So it does use a scheme like other various WRF models. I know the HRRR doesn't have a cumulus scheme...but likely due to the resolution. I should know this, but can't keep track of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 BTW, can someone confirm the NCEP NAM does not use a cumulus parametiztion scheme? I know other WRFs do...but I thought the NCEP NAM does not. I was trying to look for info, but tough to go through the documentation. I know COMET has a tutorial on models. I think you might have it backwards. The NAM DOES use a cumulus parameterization (Betts-Miller-Janjic; BMJ I believe) scheme... in fact all models above 3-4km resolution are practically required to have a cumulus parameterization scheme in order to account for intra-grid convective processes (like convective mixing) that can't be realistically simulated when your grid point resolution is coarser than individual cumulus clouds. Since convective clouds are often smaller than the grid spacing of the operational NAM, the model alone without cumulus parameterization would not explicitly produce convection. WRF models such as the NMM and ARW don't have to run with a cumulus parameterization since they are of sufficient resolution (4km) to account for these processes without the aid of a parameterization. As models continue to become higher and higher resolution, the need for cumulus parameterization will go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The op euro is as dead a ratter was possible on 6/15 with highs struggling into the low 50s. D10 so apply caveats but its a suicidal weekend if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The op euro is as dead a ratter was possible on 6/15 with highs struggling into the low 50s. D10 so apply caveats but its a suicidal weekend if it verifies. Hot begets hot. Hey--there was a tornado in Shelburne Falls last night. Actually, they created one for the movie they're filiming in town. Last year they had "Labor Day" filmed with Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin. This year, they're filming "The Judge" with Robert Downey, Jr. and Robert Duvall (among others). They're in town for two weeks or so. The towns been converted into Carlinville, IN. I don't think Indiana has hills like they do out here, but that's a minor point. A number of fake signs are up (pointing toward Evansville, e.g.), and a lot of the stores and such have had their names changed for the movie. Greenfield Savings Bank now has a sign that says Carlinville Savings Bank. I think I'll go into town today and get a look around. They shooting for today and tomorrow was supposed to be some rainy shots. I guess they'll get some natural effects tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Another low in the 40s off highs off a high around 70. I haven't heard a single person complaining about this weather. Everyone just loving going outside and not sweating. Looks like we'll get a soaking starting tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I think you might have it backwards. The NAM DOES use a cumulus parameterization (Betts-Miller-Janjic; BMJ I believe) scheme... in fact all models above 3-4km resolution are practically required to have a cumulus parameterization scheme in order to account for intra-grid convective processes (like convective mixing) that can't be realistically simulated when your grid point resolution is coarser than individual cumulus clouds. Since convective clouds are often smaller than the grid spacing of the operational NAM, the model alone without cumulus parameterization would not explicitly produce convection. WRF models such as the NMM and ARW don't have to run with a cumulus parameterization since they are of sufficient resolution (4km) to account for these processes without the aid of a parameterization. As models continue to become higher and higher resolution, the need for cumulus parameterization will go away. Yeah I went and looked through the modules.i know about the grid spacing but things like the 4km NAM had me second guessing myself. Although the 4km domains are nested now that I think of it. Thanks for the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 The op euro is as dead a ratter was possible on 6/15 with highs struggling into the low 50s. D10 so apply caveats but its a suicidal weekend if it verifies. Thankfully it's got no support..0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 As some of us have been saying over and over these things are in and out, another victory for the good guys. Great seeing OKX now catching on and going with only a 30% chance of a shower and partly sunny skies on Saturday and throwing up partly sunny and 79 on Sunday!!! I remember those calling for wicked cold temps and a rain out a week ago. Some of us know better, stay positive and enjoy the stank over the next few days. God Bless the westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 As some of us have been saying over and over these things are in and out, another victory for the good guys. Great seeing OKX now catching on and going with only a 30% chance of a shower and partly sunny skies on Saturday and throwing up partly sunny and 79 on Sunday!!! I remember those calling for wicked cold temps and a rain out a week ago. Some of us know better, stay positive and enjoy the stank over the next few days. God Bless the westerlies. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 The euro ensembles are not as bad verbatim, but still coolish and support the chance of a euro op deal. Euro op may be on its own, but have to watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Mets here are going for 75 Sat and 80 on Sun. Tough call from what I read in these spaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Mets here are going for 75 Sat and 80 on Sun. Tough call from what I read in these spaces. Your area always looked best though. Those numbers seem reasonable..at least 70s anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Yeah it won't be as awful after Friday but watch out next week after about Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Huh? He takes what some post as model output as some calling for wicked cold temps and such. Its gotten pretty old when you can not discuss output without folks saying that is what they forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It's like winter. The first week of December we get a snowstorm, Kevin proclaims we won't see bare ground until April, week 2 is in the 50s, finally deep winter settles in the final week of the month, First few days in June are hot, Kevin proclaims we're in full summer until October, then climo b**ch slaps us in the back of the head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Dropped into the 40s again last night. Love this type of weather for the summer. Low of 46/47F. Looking forward the weekend and no soccer for the first time in 3 months. Tryouts Mon/Tues/Thurs next week for my daughters Club team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Dropped into the 40s again last night. Love this type of weather for the summer. Low of 46/47F. Looking forward the weekend and no soccer for the first time in 3 months. Tryouts Mon/Tues/Thurs next week for my daughters Club team. What club? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It's like winter. The first week of December we get a snowstorm, Kevin proclaims we won't see bare ground until April, week 2 is in the 50s, finally deep winter settles in the final week of the month, First few days in June are hot, Kevin proclaims we're in full summer until October, then climo b**ch slaps us in the back of the head. If Jan we would have a ten page thread this morning about Friday and next weekend, weather winter porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 What club? Blackhawks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Blackhawks. Nice club. I coach for Liverpoolfsc in Oxford Good luck to her. At least it won't be stifling hot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Nice club. I coach for Liverpoolfsc in Oxford Good luck to her. At least it won't be stifling hot... Thanks. I've heard of the club. What age? This was our first year with them. She's currently the goalie for U10 moving up to U11. Up and down season. I definitely like the competitiveness of Club soccer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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