Deck Pic Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/23/capital-weather-gang-2013-summer-outlook-less-stifling-than-last-3-summers/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 good work! I'm looking forward to my first "average" summer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 good work! I'm looking forward to my first "average" summer here. thanks...hope I am right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 thanks...hope I am right I hope we're colder than '09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/23/capital-weather-gang-2013-summer-outlook-less-stifling-than-last-3-summers/ You the man, Matt. Your winter forecast was great, IMO. Good luck. Pray for cool is my motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Avg is great but I have higher hopes that we can avoid the dry spells like you suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Nice work Matt. Hope your success continues from the winter. A normal and slightly wet summer would feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Nice write up Matt. Good luck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I'm interested in seeing what happens with July this year- the last three years were ranked tied for 2nd, 1st, and tied for 2nd at BWI, respectively. To me that's still the most impressive of all our heat records. I wonder if we can do it a 4th year in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 worried about June...my personal outlook may work out better...kind of silly I did 2 outlooks, though they are similar... Models bring back the heat next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I saw a post recently by CWG that hinted that the summer may be warmer than originally thought (What could go wrong). Are you getting worried about the summer forecast busting low yet? worried about June...my personal outlook may work out better...kind of silly I did 2 outlooks, though they are similar... Models bring back the heat next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 I saw a post recently by CWG that hinted that the summer may be warmer than originally thought (What could go wrong). Are you getting worried about the summer forecast busting low yet? I think that was mainly because Rick had done his own research so Jason wanted to give him a chance to publish it....and he my very well be right...I think had we collaborated, it wouldn't have been released, but I dont really see the point in collaborating on seasonal outlooks...you just get something that is washed out....it is too much art and too little science... I am always worried about a hot summer...I've been worried from the second I released my outlook...but I stand by it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 No signs so far of torridness of last 3 summers and analog events transpired so far support same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 No signs so far of torridness of last 3 summers and analog events transpired so far support same. Music to my ears. If we can at least get through June w/o extended sizzling then I could bear the inevitable July swelter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 I haven't been paying too much attention to the lr lately but the last 2 gfs runs keep any kind of ec baking ridge axis too far west for us to sizzle much if at all. Texas is gonna be blazing it appears but we will remain seasonable throughout the next 2 weeks if the progged h5 idea is right. Zywts is off the hook for now. I was worried about a hot june too. Not because it might bust the forecast. Because I fooking hate persistent aob temps in the jja time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 No signs so far of torridness of last 3 summers and analog events transpired so far support same. the problem for me is building up these early +departures without a heat wave....i really need a super legit air mass that gives us 3 days of 76-79/56-59 or some sort of dank onshore flow....the upcoming pattern is very summery/tropical and a slightly warmer than normal one...it would be a lot more helpful to get something like this in late June and maybe we will..the good thing is avoiding a slew of +10's when our norms are still spring like....of course anything that isnt 90 is fine with me,....and I think you are correct that this isnt going to be the kind of summer we saw the last 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 mins are killing me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 mins are killing me....Mins are never min anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 hottest cool June ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I think slightly above average still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/05/23/capital-weather-gang-2013-summer-outlook-less-stifling-than-last-3-summers/ bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 bust Through the 11th, the high temperatures at DCA are dead-on average (897 total degrees average and actual). You just need to stop forecasting total departures, since the lows are so messy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Through the 11th, the high temperatures at DCA are dead-on average (897 total degrees average and actual). You just need to stop forecasting total departures, since the lows are so messy at this point. I account for that when I do the outlook, so I have no excuse...I make a sizable DCA UHI, Persistence, Mins, Modern Era, etc adjustment, and slightly mitigate it based on the newer norms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Above norm is the new normal. The lows are much warmer than 30 or 40 years which does throw off averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Above norm is the new normal. The lows are much warmer than 30 or 40 years which does throw off averages. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's not the nightime lows around 70 that can roast us in June but rather the highs well into the 90's. This June is nothing like recent ones. DCA was almost a cattle pasture in the 40's/50's and into the 60's, the nightime mins observed there in the warm months over last 1-30 years are utterly incomparable to back then but they make great warming fodder to exclaim "Nationas Capitol nightime temps are 5-7 degrees warmer than they used to be" Hel*, just line the entire DCA property with charcoal embers and still toe the line "It is an accurate capture of the temperatures that are actually occurring there" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's not the nightime lows around 70 that can roast us in June but rather the highs well into the 90's. This June is nothing like recent ones. DCA was almost a cattle pasture in the 40's/50's and into the 60's, the nightime mins observed there in the warm months over last 1-30 years are utterly incomparable to back then but they make great warming fodder to exclaim "Nationas Capitol nightime temps are 5-7 degrees warmer than they used to be" Hel*, just line the entire DCA property with charcoal embers and still toe the line "It is an accurate capture of the temperatures that are actually occurring there" Last June was cool right to the end, and then torched I agree with you about this June though in terms of there not being super heat so far...my issue is in terms of the outlook...we are still +2 and it is gathering steam and hard to erode...I am lucky to be avoiding the big heat when norms are this low...but it will still take some -4's to get back near normal....biggest wildcard is 6/20-30 when the norms are much higher..some 80-85 degree days there can do some damage...But I am without excuse when it comes to these seasonal outlooks...I make substantial adjustments for DCA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 not really I should of not said the lows are much warmer, however they have warmed more than the highs have I believe. Above norm over the last 3 years on a monthly basis seems good for about 75% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 14, 2013 Author Share Posted June 14, 2013 If the rest of June can average around normal, we'll end up around +1...which is a pretty good call for normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 19, 2013 Author Share Posted June 19, 2013 pretty psyched about the -5 today.....we should be below -1 by Sunday...then we probably average +4 for a 4-5 day stretch and get back to +1.5 heading into the final few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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