buckeyefan1 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 CAE mentions the slight risk, but I don't think they are drinking the kool-aid .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WESTTHURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.UPPER ENERGY TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE BESTUPPER LIFT AND MID/UPPER JETS STAYING TO OUR NORTH.HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH WEAK TOMODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OFSEVERE WEATHER. SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER OUR REGION.LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TODEVELOP OVER GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD DRIFT TOWARDS THECSRA BY LATE DAY THU...WITH THE MAIN FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OFSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ANDFRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 CAE mentions the slight risk, but I don't think they are drinking the kool-aid .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WESTTHURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.UPPER ENERGY TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE BESTUPPER LIFT AND MID/UPPER JETS STAYING TO OUR NORTH.HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH WEAK TOMODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OFSEVERE WEATHER. SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER OUR REGION.LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TODEVELOP OVER GA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD DRIFT TOWARDS THECSRA BY LATE DAY THU...WITH THE MAIN FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OFSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ANDFRIDAY. I think other than the discrete cells, they are more worried at a possible damaging wind threat at most blowing through. We may see some changes when the new Day-1 outlook comes out, but my guess is still wind.. although the hi-res NAM shows some pretty potent cells heading towards the Midlands, it quickly fizzles out as it heads East. It's also looking to come after dark, we know how that generally works out for us. But, Spring is a different beast. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Heavy squalls (2+") isolated tornados for NE Ga and upstate SC! Possible pollenaders. Haven't gotten my sweet gums cut down yet and growing concern for the one that split! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I think other than the discrete cells, they are more worried at a possible damaging wind threat at most blowing through. We may see some changes when the new Day-1 outlook comes out, but my guess is still wind.. although the hi-res NAM shows some pretty potent cells heading towards the Midlands, it quickly fizzles out as it heads East. It's also looking to come after dark, we know how that generally works out for us. But, Spring is a different beast. We shall see! The bolded are the reasons why Looks like the classic Carolina split so far, but at least it's something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Heavy squalls (2+") isolated tornados for NE Ga and upstate SC! Possible pollenaders. Haven't gotten my sweet gums cut down yet and growing concern for the one that split! I've got a monster Pecan limb sitting right over my house.. it's not very good. Definitely need to cut that down asap. I don't even wanna imagine a gum tree. Some of those suckers are massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 SREF MEAN TOTAL PRECIP 1.5 - 2.0 NC/SC/GA bordering counties... 1.0 - 1.5 NC Foothills and Mountains... Less further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 James Spann @spann 8m A number of AL school systems will dismiss early tomorrow due to severe weather… http://www.abc3340.com/story/20882504/school-closings-and-delays … #alwx FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 James Spann @spann 8m A number of AL school systems will dismiss early tomorrow due to severe weather… http://www.abc3340.com/story/20882504/school-closings-and-delays … #alwx FYI Lol only because 4/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 This has the storms here at 8pm...even sooner south-west. Looks like more than a squall line is possible. Brad Panovich Severe Weather Threat is increasing for tomorrow, start preparing now for possible watches then warnings tomorrow late afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Lol only because 4/27. Why is this funny? Anyway, no! They did let schools out that day as well but Alabama has done a much better job with this than most surrounding states in the past 10 years or so. I think James Spann has done a remarkable job educating public officials over there about severe threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Lol only because 4/27. Why is this funny? Anyway, no! They did let schools out that day as well but Alabama has done a much better job with this than most surrounding states in the past 10 years or so. I think James Spann has done a remarkable job educating public officials over there about severe threats. Tomorrow looks to be more like a damaging wind and large hail threat with a few tornadoes if any discrete cells manage to develop. They are acting as if strong tornadoes are in the forecast. Most of GA is in a 45% area also and no one is letting schools out early or cancelling them there. I guess they will let schools out early with every slight risk just as Wilkesboro, NC gets a 2 hour delay with every sleet pellet that hits the ground. Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I've got a monster Pecan limb sitting right over my house.. it's not very good. Definitely need to cut that down asap. I don't even wanna imagine a gum tree. Some of those suckers are massive. I love monster pecans. We had a tree when I was growing up. We all loved those 500lb pecan pies mom made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 Clinton, Arkansas under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 Statement as of 4:33 PM CDT on April 10, 2013 TORNADO EMERGENCY ISSUED FOR CLINTON, ARKANSAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 Looks like Clinton was spared. Local news showed this nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39881-significant-severe-weather-threats-48-10/page-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 FFC banging the drum for a widespread wind damage event for their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Probably going to see a moderate risk tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 NWS Greenville The entire forecast area will be threatened...but the greatest potential for severe weather will be east and S of the Blue Ridge. Numerous damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat...but a few tornadoes would be within the realm of possibilities mainly along and south of I-85. Unless there is some significant change in the forecast guidance...it is reasonable to expect severe weather watches for all or part of the forecast area at some point late Thursday and early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Probably going to see a moderate risk tomorrow. With GA already hatched in the 45% zone I wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 Frank Strait Fan Club · 1,961 like this about an hour ago · Yesterday worried about TN to W Carolinas severe threat tomorrow. Really worried today. Potential serious #tornado threat. Up to VA/KY too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 I love monster pecans. We had a tree when I was growing up. We all loved those 500lb pecan pies mom made. Yeah, the squirrels and last years drought really ruined our batch off 3 or 4 ancient trees last year. Hopefully this year works out better for us. That image from WxBell, showing "most dangerous storms" etc. I think they mean any storms developing in front of the line (discrete cells). I've been looking at the last few runs of the 4KM models and they seem to be more ominous with the cell developement even here in SC. If I see it even worse on 00z, I may just go ahead and make a trip to the beer store tomorrow morning in case something does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 <p> 5] Frank Strait Fan Club · 1,961 like thisabout an hour ago · Yesterday worried about TN to W Carolinas severe threat tomorrow. Really worried today. Potential serious #tornado threat. Up to VA/KY too.Really? Hype city. It's not even that serious. Tomorrow will be a damaging wind and large hail threat mainly. He is acting like we are gonna see a tornado outbreak or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Lol only because 4/27. More because of the Enterprise tornado on March 1st, 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 With GA already hatched in the 45% zone I wouldn't be surprised. Georgia isn't hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 With GA already hatched in the 45% zone I wouldn't be surprised. Georgia isn't hatched. Yup, if it was, it would have been a Day 2 Moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 This has the storms here at 8pm...even sooner south-west. Looks like more than a squall line is possible. Brad Panovich Severe Weather Threat is increasing for tomorrow, start preparing now for possible watches then warnings tomorrow late afternoon and evening. WxBell needs to do something with their color scale. It's really misleading. Anywho, the previous frames to this image has what looks like some discrete convection forming in upstate SC and SE GA then goes linear later on. Wind will probably be the largest threat in my opinion. Probably gonna be some good hailers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 Wind will probably be the largest threat in my opinion. Probably gonna be some good hailers too. If we look at today it may show us what is likely in store further east. 160 reports of damaging winds 90 reports of hail 6 reports of tornadoes (Numbers still going up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 NAM HiRes looks like discrete action around Augusta tomorrow afternoon from 2-5 PM. There isn't really a good shelter option at Augusta National from what I can imagine. Either way, that would be a dangerous scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 WxBell needs to do something with their color scale. It's really misleading. Anywho, the previous frames to this image has what looks like some discrete convection forming in upstate SC and SE GA then goes linear later on. Wind will probably be the largest threat in my opinion. Probably gonna be some good hailers too. have you seen the NAM hodographs? some of them look pretty impressive from SC to NC. lots of low level shear, we could be surprised tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.