Disc Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 have you seen the NAM hodographs? some of them look pretty impressive from SC to NC. lots of low level shear, we could be surprised tomorrow evening. I actually just took a glance at them. Pretty good looking sounding here from KSPA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 Tornado parameters tick up coming up from the Upstate into the NC foothills...then seem to just disappear going east into the Piedmont overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Not even close to moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Not even close to moderate.Yeah we lost the 45% area. Can never trust these outlooks. I was excited to see some severe storm. Now my forecast just mentions plain storms and a decreased Pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Yeah we lost the 45% area. Can never trust these outlooks. I was excited to see some severe storm. Now my forecast just mentions plain storms and a decreased Pop. Lol what did you expect? Waycross was barely in the 30% area to begin with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 5% tornado...was thinking closer to 2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Not even close to moderate. I suspect they are being conservative so early in the forecast period. I wouldn't be surprised for probs to go back up once they see how things get going. Sent from my Nexus One using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 5% tornado...was thinking closer to 2%. So, you're saying Van Denton said 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 5% tornado...was thinking closer to 2%. If you took a look at any of the hodographs from around Raleigh west and all over SC they were conducive of supercells and tornado development...lots of low level shear in a lot of places like I posted earlier. Can't just look at CAPE for the SE, lots of other players and the atmosphere works different here than in Arkansas. It's likely this thing won't slow down though, the atmosphere will be primed by daytime heating so we're looking at a small tornado window but the chance is there and not just for western NC. My area looked pretty good on the NAM yesterday...south of Raleigh. I'm looking forward to going outside and looking up to see how fast these clouds are moving tomorrow night, a lot of the hodographs had 40-50kt winds just above the service. The thing that sucks is that it's going to be a night time event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 As of this morning, the whole shebang has slowed down. It's looking more and more like a 9pm - 12pm frontal passage for us now. Euro has a STP forecast for 2.5 - 3 later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 5% tornado...was thinking closer to 2%. 2.5 times greater than negligible is still basically negligible. What does it matter? These probabilities are already so low anyway. (Not that they ever issue super high probabilities for tornadoes anyway.) I'm not sure how one is capable of differentiating between 2% and 5%. The vast majority of the land area under these warnings for any particular system will never be affected by a tornado. Of course, if you're in the small minority that is affected, your perspective is quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 2.5 times greater than negligible is still basically negligible. What does it matter? These probabilities are already so low anyway. (Not that they ever issue super high probabilities for tornadoes anyway.) I'm not sure how one is capable of differentiating between 2% and 5%. The vast majority of the land area under these warnings for any particular system will never be affected by a tornado. Of course, if you're in the small minority that is affected, your perspective is quite different. Yeah, even 4/27/11 only had a hatched 45% and that was pretty much the ideal TOR setup on the models. 5% from SPC is enough to at least make sure you're paying attention when the storms are rolling in, and anything higher is "hey time to let the schools out early" territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 The thing that might limit the tornado threat is the slight backing of the winds above ~800/750mb. It's ever so slight, but might be enough to keep tornadoes from becoming too strong. Still, low level shear is more than enough to spin up a quick tornado IF we get warm enough. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms bubble up near ATL and areas seeing a fair amount of sunshine this morning. Also, BMX mentioned a few of the Hi-Res models developing a low in MS and riding along I-20. That has been hinted at by some models the past few days, so we'll see if that comes to fruition. If that low does develop, then shear profiles will become more conducive for tornadoes. Snippet of BMX's morning discussion: SO...INSTABILITIES SURE DON`T LOOK TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY...IF THEYARE IN FACT REALIZED. LOOKING NEXT INTO THE WIND PROFILES...FORECASTSOUNDINGS ARE STILL ADVERTISING MORE OF A LINEAR MODE OF CONVECTIONAT LEAST TO START OUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ANDNORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE ENTERINGOUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ROUGHLY FROM 9AM TO 12PM BASEDON THE LATEST TRENDS. THINGS THEN BECOME TRICKY IN TERMS OF TIMINGOF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE MODES OF CONVECTION INTO THE AFTERNOONHOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER TO OUR WEST...THETROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. INADDITION...HI-RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPINGALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI AND TRACKINGNORTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. IF THIS SOLUTION DOES INFACT VERIFY...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT INCREASED SHEAR PROFILES...ANDWITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE...SUPERCELLDEVELOPMENT WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE IN THE CARDS OUT AHEAD OF THESQUALL LINE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BETHE MOST FAVORABLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS...TOCALERA...TO ANNISTON LINE. OF COURSE...THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THEMESOSCALE...WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED THROUGH THE DAYTODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. As Dacula mentioned, this thing has slowed down considerably! The northern part of the line is barely moving, while the southern end, the part over southern LA, is picking up speed. That's where the stronger storms are located and will likely become the worst part of the storm, at least through the short-term. Another thing to consider is the possibility of stronger thunderstorms near the Gulf cutting off the moisture feed north. I've seen it a few times in my time here and is just something to keep an eye on throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Maybe you should send them an ALERT on the mistake they made. You being an expert in the local area. I'm sure they were not aware you were on the storm and you think it's only a 2% not a 5% as they had forecast. 5% tornado...was thinking closer to 2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Guys just bumping in from up North, they kept us in below 15 percent chance of severe and ruled out any type of watch and ended up with a ton of wind damage reports and lots and lots of trees down. So, as good as the SPC is just keep an eye on it, I didn't think we'd be having family over for power outages yesterday and bam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 2.5 times greater than negligible is still basically negligible. What does it matter? These probabilities are already so low anyway. (Not that they ever issue super high probabilities for tornadoes anyway.) I'm not sure how one is capable of differentiating between 2% and 5%. The vast majority of the land area under these warnings for any particular system will never be affected by a tornado. Of course, if you're in the small minority that is affected, your perspective is quite different. Yeah, even 4/27/11 only had a hatched 45% and that was pretty much the ideal TOR setup on the models. 5% from SPC is enough to at least make sure you're paying attention when the storms are rolling in, and anything higher is "hey time to let the schools out early" territory. There was a tornado last year with 2% over NC and some of the wind profiles are definitely conducive of some pretty decent rotation...will it reach the ground? probably not, but at least there is a chance. It's better than seeing "Less than 2% all areas" on the map and just getting straight line winds. Tonight should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 The broad 5% is about all they can do for now. Expect a small 10% in later updates when surface features become better established. Upper level winds are going to be somewhat unidirectional, or even veer-back. Potent short-wave ejecting out of Texas, but it's almost closed. I'm afraid the upper air sampling, showing an open wave on upper charts, was not great in Mexico. Vapor shows closed. Lack of an open wave takes major outbreak off the table. One would look to locally higher low level helicity. Some of the leading cells should become severe though. I'm watching two areas. The Gulf Front, defined as 68+ dewpoints, will be a focus. Dews on the GA/SC coast are impressive but upper shear is less. Low level shear would be great if the WRF/NAM is right about the surge in southeast sfc winds. North Alabama, north Georgia, and southeast Tennessee will see isolated cells ahead of the line, but nah I don't see tornadoes. Stubborn dewpoint min. Go to the coastal fronts; either Gulf Coast or the quasi-coastal front near the GA/SC coasts. Even the coastal fronts are a low probability play, but the best I can see. I'll be relaxing at home watching radar after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Upgraded map by SPC as of 15 minutes ago... downplayed the tor threat, the timing should downplay it even more. FROM SPC: AT THIS TIME...THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE FOR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN THE RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS FROM TN SWD INTO AL. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM W-E THIS AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS AL...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FARTHER E INTO GA/FL FOR ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THE TORNADO RISK IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND HINGES ON MORE DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THOUGH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. However, from NWS RAH as of 11:05AM: NOON AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THECAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TODEVELOP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WILLLIKELY BE OVERRUN BY THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHTAND MERGE INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF CONVECTION WITH MIXED MODES.THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLEOVERNIGHT WITH NAM SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 300-900 J/KG RANGE WHILE GFSVALUES ARE ABOUT HALF OF THAT. WHILE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED NAM/GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS NOTE THAT THE SURFACE LAYER REMAINS AT LEASTNEUTRALLY STABLE OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SHEARARRIVES WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUGGESTING ALOWER SEVERE THREAT WITH THE EARLY/MID EVENING CONVECTION IN THEWESTERN PIEDMONT. A DEEP LAYER FLOW THAT IS ALIGNED MORE PARALLELWITH THE FORCING MECHANISM SUGGESTS A QLCS TYPE EVENT OVERNIGHT WITHA PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A SLIGHTLY BACKED SURFACE FLOWOVERNIGHT RESULTING FROM DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERNAPPALACHIANS COMBINED WITH A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHSHIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ACROSS CENTRALNC...MAINLY IN THE 04-12Z TIMEFRAME. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUSDISCUSSION...THE LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL RUNS SUGGEST AFRACTURING ORGANIZATION AND DECREASING COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTIONOVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING A GRADUALLY DECREASING RISK OF SEVERE WEATHERLATE TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGEIN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Nice couplet on the cell nearing Dr Kalb, MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Confirmed per JAN tornado warning Kemper Co. AT 1144 AM CDT...A DAMAGING TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. THIS TORNADOWAS LOCATED NEAR BLUFF SPRINGS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... RURAL NORTHERN KEMPER COUNTY AT NOON CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1144 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013 MSC069-111730- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130411T1730Z/ KEMPER MS- 1144 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY... AT 1144 AM CDT...A DAMAGING TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLUFF SPRINGS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... RURAL NORTHERN KEMPER COUNTY AT NOON CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 BWER on BR and a tightening rotation. Next substantial community in line would be Shuqualak, MS if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 96 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95... DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELL HAS FORMED IN E CENTRAL MS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WRN AL AROUND THE TIME THE STORM MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY TO ITS W. SOME SURFACE HEATING IN A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT STORMS IN THE LINE WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE FORMATION OF MORE DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 BWER on BR and a tightening rotation. Next substantial community in line would be Shuqualak, MS if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Injuries reported in Kemper County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1156 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NOXUBEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 100 PM CDT * AT 1157 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED DAMAGING TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF GHOLSON MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MACON BY 1220 PM CDT... BROOKSVILLE BY 1225 PM CDT... DEERBROOK AND PRAIRIE POINT BY 1230 PM CDT... BIGBEE VALLEY BY 1235 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WITH INJURIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS1158 AM CDT THU APR 11 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..1138 AM TORNADO 4 NW LIBERTY 32.70N 88.81W04/11/2013 KEMPER MS BROADCAST MEDIADAMAGE WITH POSSIBLE INJURIES REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 493NORTHWEST OF LIBERTY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 485 WWUS54 KJAN 111703 SVSJAN SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1203 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013 MSC069-111730- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130411T1730Z/ KEMPER MS- 1203 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY... ...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF THE TORNADO... AT 1203 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS AND TRAINED SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Over 100 kts GTG on SRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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