Wmsptwx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Just looked at the 12z maps looks pretty good, at least keeps 850 line to our south through a bunch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 @djr5001 Monday's event. Saturday is the 1-3" clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 The leading edge of the clipper that will arrive tomorrow is not producing anything over a tenth of an inch right now in Wisconsin/Illinois... the main energy over North Dakota has a couple stations reporting ridiculous 1 hour precip totals... 4 different stations reporting +SN 1/4 mile visibility and 1 hour precip totals of .71", .78", 1.23", and 1.43" at 18z ... not sure how easy to believe but with current temps that would be absolutely ridiculous snowfall rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 with enough of 12z Euro in... for Monday... both Euro and GFS are in agreement that it is going to be pretty wet... but both flood warm enough to not be snow air into the region... with the timing of late afternoon Monday into the day on Tuesday I just dont see enough cold air for snow in the Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Pittsburgh, etc areas... higher elevations and locations to the north have the best shot, though I do believe it wont be much more than 1-3" before changing over to rain that quickly melts it all away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Euro 12Z MDT MON 18Z 18-MAR 0.3 -3.5 1027 60 100 0.04 560 539 TUE 00Z 19-MAR 0.1 -2.4 1021 89 100 0.22 560 544 TUE 06Z 19-MAR 2.2 3.6 1011 98 100 0.39 557 548 TUE 12Z 19-MAR 2.7 1.6 1007 96 43 0.52 550 544 UNV MON 18Z 18-MAR -2.2 -4.1 1026 66 100 0.07 559 539 TUE 00Z 19-MAR -1.9 -3.9 1018 92 100 0.26 558 544 TUE 06Z 19-MAR -0.3 0.5 1011 96 100 0.32 553 545 TUE 12Z 19-MAR 1.7 -2.6 1007 93 18 0.24 544 538 IPT TUE 00Z 19-MAR -2.0 -4.7 1020 87 99 0.17 558 542 TUE 06Z 19-MAR -0.9 -0.1 1012 96 100 0.32 554 544 TUE 12Z 19-MAR 0.5 -0.8 1007 98 37 0.40 546 541 TUE 18Z 19-MAR 3.5 -6.5 1007 61 29 0.01 532 526 Congrats IPT....appears to stay mostly frozen there according to the Euro. Majority of precip at UNV is frozen of some sort. Maybe an inch or so at MDT before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 SN->ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 SN->ZR? Probably a lot of sleet after the snow. That's how these typically go around State College. I saw maybe 1 or 2 good freezing rain events in my time there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man, HM is posting some interesting thoughts right now in the Philly thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Man, HM is posting some interesting thoughts right now in the Philly thread... We need a system to swing through right before another one to drop some cold air into the region. Other wise there just is not any cold air locked in for our area to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 These next two systems will likely be favoring the true central counties snowwise. Tomorrow's system may try to sneak some snows further east to places like Harrisburg if the rates are good enough. I wouldn't expect any noteworthy accums that far east.. perhaps a coating to an inch. Best snow chances on SREFs seem to be favoring Cambria/Blair/Clearfield/Centre counties, which is primarily where CTP has 2-3"expected. I'm thinking mainly a 1-2" deal in the best areas, with perhaps a scattered 3" here and there in the higher elevations. The next system will be more widespread and have more moisture. SREFs paint pretty good probs of 1+ for the central counties and that includes the north central as well (northern tier looks to be missing the best precip with tomorrows system). Could be a decent advisory snowfall for at least the north central and perhaps the central counties under I-80 depending on how the cold holds. North central looks in pretty good shape regardless, further south is a bit of a tossup yet. I'm a bit leery of that second system with the primary low to the west. Whether we have a quick burst of snow or a more significant one is gonna hinge on secondary development. I noticed the GGEM run today was a little bit warmer with both systems having the snow more in the northcentral with light rain south with system #1 and less snow overall for #2. I bring that one up cuz that did a pretty decent job with the March 6th storm debacle with regards to ptypes and having rain in the Sus Valley. I'm still a bit salty about that storm. I know alot of folks got smoked with the predictions like I did but I should've recognized the crappy antecedent cold and raging easterly flow before overextending my snow ranges in the east...especially since I was on the right track in my postings a few days earlier. Oh well. The cold air available for these next two systems is probably a bit better than that storm but we'll see if it'll be enough to deliver some flakes outside of the favored areas. Regardless of what these next couple systems do in PA, it's looking pretty obvious at the moment that mother nature is punting any kind of bonafide spring weather until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 15, 2013 Share Posted March 15, 2013 Im going with the euro....gfs is colder and cad is usually better modeled closer to event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Regardless of what these next couple systems do in PA, it's looking pretty obvious at the moment that mother nature is punting any kind of bonafide spring weather until April. Personally, I'd like to give mother nature a good swift kick in the ass. I'm not fond of winter, but to have it linger on just sucks. On a serious note, I know it's only mid March, and technically it's still astrologically winter, but I'd like to start seeing a few mild, spring-like breaks in between the cooler spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 These next two systems will likely be favoring the true central counties snowwise. Tomorrow's system may try to sneak some snows further east to places like Harrisburg if the rates are good enough. I wouldn't expect any noteworthy accums that far east.. perhaps a coating to an inch. Best snow chances on SREFs seem to be favoring Cambria/Blair/Clearfield/Centre counties, which is primarily where CTP has 2-3"expected. I'm thinking mainly a 1-2" deal in the best areas, with perhaps a scattered 3" here and there in the higher elevations. The next system will be more widespread and have more moisture. SREFs paint pretty good probs of 1+ for the central counties and that includes the north central as well (northern tier looks to be missing the best precip with tomorrows system). Could be a decent advisory snowfall for at least the north central and perhaps the central counties under I-80 depending on how the cold holds. North central looks in pretty good shape regardless, further south is a bit of a tossup yet. I'm a bit leery of that second system with the primary low to the west. Whether we have a quick burst of snow or a more significant one is gonna hinge on secondary development. I noticed the GGEM run today was a little bit warmer with both systems having the snow more in the northcentral with light rain south with system #1 and less snow overall for #2. I bring that one up cuz that did a pretty decent job with the March 6th storm debacle with regards to ptypes and having rain in the Sus Valley. I'm still a bit salty about that storm. I know alot of folks got smoked with the predictions like I did but I should've recognized the crappy antecedent cold and raging easterly flow before overextending my snow ranges in the east...especially since I was on the right track in my postings a few days earlier. Oh well. The cold air available for these next two systems is probably a bit better than that storm but we'll see if it'll be enough to deliver some flakes outside of the favored areas. Regardless of what these next couple systems do in PA, it's looking pretty obvious at the moment that mother nature is punting any kind of bonafide spring weather until April. I am pretty interested in the late month period as well, like starting 3/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I am pretty interested in the late month period as well, like starting 3/22 weather world tonight was talking of a " note worthy " storm during this period in the 12 trends segment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 From DT. I, admittedly haven't been paying much attention lately, but this seems like it's waaaay high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 From DT. I, admittedly haven't been paying much attention lately, but this seems like it's waaaay high... I agree that this seems way too high for PA. Especially given the setup with primary well west and late blooming secondary and just the usual mid march issues with temps and time of day. I've been eyeing advisory type snows (2-5" ish) with this early week event.. likely focused primarily in the north central counties where cold air and snow hold on longest. Got some flakes flying already from this first event. Temps down to about 34ºF with some light snow falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 I agree that this seems way too high for PA. Especially given the setup with primary well west and late blooming secondary and just the usual mid march issues with temps and time of day. I've been eyeing advisory type snows (2-5" ish) with this early week event.. likely focused primarily in the north central counties where cold air and snow hold on longest. Got some flakes flying already from this first event. Temps down to about 34ºF with some light snow falling right now. it has been snowing here for the last 4 or 5 hours. the ground is white but no more than 1/4" or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 How was Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Flurries here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Flurries here now Just started snowing here in Maytown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Euro was 3"+ for most of PA except near philly. Then 6"+ northwest of KAOO. GFS was lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 9Z Srefs similar to 6Z GFS. 850 line doesn't cross till 60 hrs south and 69 north with .5-1" qpf fallen by that time. Colder than last run and more precip. I am very skeptical and why shouldn't anyone be after all the scams we have seen but, i'd laugh if this was one of the biggest snows of the season. I am only 6 inches away from average. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Snowing like crazy here. At our dept event, people are asking me what is going on, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 9Z Srefs similar to 6Z GFS. 850 line doesn't cross till 60 hrs south and 69 north with .5-1" qpf fallen by that time. Colder than last run and more precip. I am very skeptical and why shouldn't anyone be after all the scams we have seen but, i'd laugh if this was one of the biggest snows of the season. I am only 6 inches away from average. Bring it. F the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Its fake rain for all. Snowing with sun out here lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 F the GFS. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Would be a decent event down here if any precip was around. State College area wins today. Maybe 1-2" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Yea we r too far north totday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 Snowing harder, garden and flower beds accumulating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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