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March 5-6 Storm Discussion

Poimen

By Poimen,
in Southeastern States

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

Hey guys how much will the dewpoint matter once precip starts? My dew point has gone from 31 to 27 over the last couple hours. Temp is 47

 

Just curious, but what part of Roanoke are you from? 

 

As for dew points, I don't think they'll be a huge factor. In fact, there were some reports of light rain and a little sleet mixing in from that small band this morning. From my understanding what will really drop our temps is when the front moves through and the low gets cranking in NC.

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CoolBreeze

CoolBreeze

Posted
Posted

Hey guys how much will the dewpoint matter once precip starts? My dew point has gone from 31 to 27 over the last couple hours. Temp is 47

Earlier this season, someone posted this link:

   http://www.the-snowman.com/wetbulb2.html

 

which takes your temp and relative humidity to give your current wetbulb temp. 

If that wetbulb temp stays at (or close to) 32, then you may have a chance to see some flakes. 

(Others, please correct me if I'm wrong here).

 

Enjoy Buddy - wish we in NC (outside of the mtns.) could've been in on it too !!!

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

Earlier this season, someone posted this link:

   http://www.the-snowman.com/wetbulb2.html

 

which takes your temp and relative humidity to give your current wetbulb temp. 

If that wetbulb temp stays at (or close to) 32, then you may have a chance to see some flakes. 

(Others, please correct me if I'm wrong here).

 

Enjoy Buddy - wish we in NC could've been in on it too !!!

That site is sweet. Wet bulb is 35 so at least when this batch of precip comes thru should drop the temp somewhat and then as the front rolls thru it'll set us up. Thanks for that.
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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

Just curious, but what part of Roanoke are you from?

As for dew points, I don't think they'll be a huge factor. In fact, there were some reports of light rain and a little sleet mixing in from that small band this morning. From my understanding what will really drop our temps is when the front moves through and the low gets cranking in NC.

I'm right by Roanoke County Police on Embassy Dr. off of green ridge by the big church on the corner.
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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

I'm right by Roanoke County Police on Embassy Dr. off of green ridge by the big church on the corner.

 

Ah, I know exactly where that is. Out there near 419 and I81?

 

I'm in SW Roanoke City.. Patrick Henry High School area. Glad to see another Roanoker around the forum, though.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

Ah, I know exactly where that is. Out there near 419 and I81?

I'm in SW Roanoke City.. Patrick Henry High School area. Glad to see another Roanoker around the forum, though.

Yes exactly. Seems like our temp up this way is always a degree or two colder I guess with some slight elevation.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I'm liking the chances for 3-4" here, if not more. The early morning hours are looking pretty juicy. If classes are canceled, I might try to head up to the favored upslope locations. This could be my last winter event while a student at App...might as well make the most of it. 

 

Classes never got canceled for that much when I was at App.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

Wow 18z nam looking good again out here. 12z I guess was an off run apparently because 0z and 6z had a good slug of moisture coming thru early morning hours and 18z is picking up on it again. Actually looks just like Gfs. 15 hr nam also more wet comparing it to 21 hr 12z run. Should be interesting waking up tomorrow.

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CoolBreeze

CoolBreeze

Posted
Posted

Wow 18z nam looking good again out here. 12z I guess was an off run apparently because 0z and 6z had a good slug of moisture coming thru early morning hours and 18z is picking up on it again. Actually looks just like Gfs. 15 hr nam also more wet comparing it to 21 hr 12z run. Should be interesting waking up tomorrow.

Looking forward to reading the real-time PBP tomorrow morning - even though we're out of it. Might even have to peek into the MA thread !

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Last report before I hit the road, sitting down eating a sandwich, dressed in a couple layers with my gortex boots.  I think we are in a very good spot, timing worked out about perfect fo us to go up and be able to do this.  I am a little concerned about conditions going down hill quickly once we get off 95 and head west, could slow us down a bit.  Hopefully were in there by midnight!  As expected, the absolute highest totals should be just off to our west in the Shenandoah National Park.  I am ok with that, a couple thousand feet of elevation on the eastward facing slopes will really ring out the moisture.  Still, were in a pretty good spot to see 18-20", who knows depending on how the banding sets up, but I would expect the heaviest amounts along the Skyline just to the SSW of Front Royal, maybe 28".  Maybe will get to take a treck west early Thursday to see where the yardstick pings, but it is not going to be far, <20 miles, which still may be a feat given the roads.  Come hell or epic totals, were coming back Thursday afternoon.

 

Just right of center mass in the high prob 12" hatch, which matches up nicely with the SREF 24" total combined SN/IP

day1_psnow_gt_12.gif

 

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

Last report before I hit the road, sitting down eating a sandwich, dressed in a couple layers with my gortex boots.  I think we are in a very good spot, timing worked out about perfect fo us to go up and be able to do this.  I am a little concerned about conditions going down hill quickly once we get off 95 and head west, could slow us down a bit.  Hopefully were in there by midnight!  As expected, the absolute highest totals should be just off to our west in the Shenandoah National Park.  I am ok with that, a couple thousand feet of elevation on the eastward facing slopes will really ring out the moisture.  Still, were in a pretty good spot to see 18-20", who knows depending on how the banding sets up, but I would expect the heaviest amounts along the Skyline just to the SSW of Front Royal, maybe 28".  Maybe will get to take a treck west early Thursday to see where the yardstick pings, but it is not going to be far, <20 miles, which still may be a feat given the roads.  Come hell or epic totals, were coming back Thursday afternoon.

 

Just right of center mass in the high prob 12" hatch, which matches up nicely with the SREF 24" total combined SN/IP

day1_psnow_gt_12.gif

 

Wow nice man! Didn't realize you we're making the trek up that way. Have a blast get some good pictures.
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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Wow 18z nam looking good again out here. 12z I guess was an off run apparently because 0z and 6z had a good slug of moisture coming thru early morning hours and 18z is picking up on it again. Actually looks just like Gfs. 15 hr nam also more wet comparing it to 21 hr 12z run. Should be interesting waking up tomorrow.

 

RAP doesn't give you guys much love. 

 

gyf34n9.gif

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

Last report before I hit the road, sitting down eating a sandwich, dressed in a couple layers with my gortex boots.  I think we are in a very good spot, timing worked out about perfect fo us to go up and be able to do this.  I am a little concerned about conditions going down hill quickly once we get off 95 and head west, could slow us down a bit.  Hopefully were in there by midnight!  As expected, the absolute highest totals should be just off to our west in the Shenandoah National Park.  I am ok with that, a couple thousand feet of elevation on the eastward facing slopes will really ring out the moisture.  Still, were in a pretty good spot to see 18-20", who knows depending on how the banding sets up, but I would expect the heaviest amounts along the Skyline just to the SSW of Front Royal, maybe 28".  Maybe will get to take a treck west early Thursday to see where the yardstick pings, but it is not going to be far, <20 miles, which still may be a feat given the roads.  Come hell or epic totals, were coming back Thursday afternoon.

 

Just right of center mass in the high prob 12" hatch, which matches up nicely with the SREF 24" total combined SN/IP

day1_psnow_gt_12.gif

 

 

Are we going to get obs, pics, video, & such? Hope you guys have a safe & eventful trip!

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NC_hailstorm

NC_hailstorm

Posted
Posted

Eventhough - as CR also pointed out - there are so many variables that go into to this madness we have chosen to follow, The origins of winter life for the last two seasons have been the Pacific.  It hath giveth and it hath taketh.  Really it's been mostly taketh, but you get the point...

PDO the last 5 years

 

2008**  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.872009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.082010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.212011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.792012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.482013**  -0.14

 

What about March 09,Dec 09(neutral)Dec 10,Jan 11,Feb 11?All negative but still good winters here.Actually it looks like its trending close to neutral over the last couple months.I agree a positive gives a better chance but there are other factors at work in my opinion.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Last report before I hit the road, sitting down eating a sandwich, dressed in a couple layers with my gortex boots.  I think we are in a very good spot, timing worked out about perfect fo us to go up and be able to do this.  I am a little concerned about conditions going down hill quickly once we get off 95 and head west, could slow us down a bit.  Hopefully were in there by midnight!  As expected, the absolute highest totals should be just off to our west in the Shenandoah National Park.  I am ok with that, a couple thousand feet of elevation on the eastward facing slopes will really ring out the moisture.  Still, were in a pretty good spot to see 18-20", who knows depending on how the banding sets up, but I would expect the heaviest amounts along the Skyline just to the SSW of Front Royal, maybe 28".  Maybe will get to take a treck west early Thursday to see where the yardstick pings, but it is not going to be far, <20 miles, which still may be a feat given the roads.  Come hell or epic totals, were coming back Thursday afternoon.

 

Just right of center mass in the high prob 12" hatch, which matches up nicely with the SREF 24" total combined SN/IP

 

Enjoy WeatherNC...one day I will do this...one day.  Will be looking for your follow-up reports.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

The euro snowfall map off weather bell says what snow in dc? And it actually looks really good for the western nc mtns. Drops an inch or two into the n ga mtns as well.

I had mentioned this in the MA thread its been showing this now for a good 3-4 days when the American models were way north. The SLP may be closer to the overall evolution the GFS/NAM however it has been showing better snow totals for the NC mountains up my way and then up the 81 corridor/blue ridge

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calm_days

calm_days

Posted
Posted

This is still a somewhat unusual setup/dynamic.  Even those of us who won't be seeing snow will learn something/see some atypical dynamics interacting, when the system does start to strengthen, or when it might not wrap up or strengthen properly.

 

A Gulf flow to the storm circulation was blocked due to the Pacific moisture flow being pulled in between the storm and the Gulf... The huge occluded Atlantic complex is still stuck there instead of moving east as many models indicated.  The circulation of our continental storm is still getting squashed and is diving southeast.

 

16itk5e.gif

 

There is a really strong pull to the southeast.  Based on the elongation of the system and the very unusual environment in which it is forming, I would say, maybe there will be at least one surprise.    I am not sure where, or what, just that the flow under the also very elongated Atlantic system is very strong and does not start to turn north until quite far out offshore.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

This is still a somewhat unusual setup/dynamic.  Even those of us who won't be seeing snow will learn something/see some atypical dynamics interacting, when the system does start to strengthen, or when it might not wrap up or strengthen properly.

 

A Gulf flow to the storm circulation was blocked due to the Pacific moisture flow being pulled in between the storm and the Gulf... The huge occluded Atlantic complex is still stuck there instead of moving east as many models indicated.  The circulation of our continental storm is still getting squashed and is diving southeast.

 

 

 

There is a really strong pull to the southeast.  Based on the elongation of the system and the very unusual environment in which it is forming, I would say, maybe there will be at least one surprise.    I am not sure where, or what, just that the flow under the also very elongated Atlantic system is very strong and does not start to turn north until quite far out offshore.

 

Looks pretty spot on with the RAP to me. I still think it over performs for VA. That's just my gut though. 

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