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earthlight

Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

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News 12 is going for 1-3 north of NYC said they see no reason to go higher based on the latest guidance

BUST .

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The point is , this is a city of 15 million and 25 million in the tri state area  and the NWS posts a Winter Storm Warning with 6 to 8 and local forecasters ignore it .

 

Shameful .

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Any more snow threats or are we finally done?

We are taking a 10 day break . -EPO +PNA re fires around the 20th . Would love to see a - NAO  form and maybe pull something off in the last 10 days .

 

But is was a very good winter . If this the end , it ended with a bang in some areas

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The point is , this is a city of 15 million and 25 million in the tri state area  and the NWS posts a Winter Storm Warning with 6 to 8 and local forecasters ignore it .

 

Shameful .

And its usually the same ones every time.

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The point is , this is a city of 15 million and 25 million in the tri state area  and the NWS posts a Winter Storm Warning with 6 to 8 and local forecasters ignore it .

 

Shameful .

 

In the local forecasters defense it probably was never a good idea to ride the 24-36" NWS had on Jan 26th. Point is, the NWS messes up a lot and its up to the local forecasters to make their own call. I think still important to mention the winter storm warning and point how they differ from what the NWS is thinking

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In the local forecasters defense it probably was never a good idea to ride the 24-36" NWS had on Jan 26th. Point is, the NWS messes up a lot and its up to the local forecasters to make their own call. I think still important to mention the winter storm warning and point how they differ from what the NWS is thinking

Yesterday s ENTIRE 12Z and 18Z suite advertised 6 plus at KNYC . Some more , but none less . When you have that kind of agreement 12 hours out and you forecast 1 to 3 or 1 to 4 you should be mocked .

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Yesterday s ENTIRE 12Z and 18Z suite advertised 6 plus at KNYC . Some more , but none less . When you have that kind of agreement 12 hours out and you forecast 1 to 3 or 1 to 4 you should be mocked .

 I've never seen the tv mets flip flop as much as I did with this storm. We all had the same data.  I don't get it.

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JB whining hard today on the raging weather wimp about his lack of snow in his BY, pretty funny.

This entire forum would be up in arms if I-95 had the winters Central PA's had over the last decade. I-95 has been on a big time hot streak. State College averages more snow than Boston but several times didn't even catch up to NYC totals. In 05-06 there was essentially no snow besides little 1-2" systems after Christmas, and many PA ski resorts had to close. 2/11/06, which gave NYC it's record, was one of those 1-2"ers. It was beyond miserable.

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Guest Pamela

This entire forum would be up in arms if I-95 had the winters Central PA's had over the last decade. I-95 has been on a big time hot streak. State College averages more snow than Boston but several times didn't even catch up to NYC totals. In 05-06 there was essentially no snow besides little 1-2" systems after Christmas, and many PA ski resorts had to close. 2/11/06, which gave NYC it's record, was one of those 1-2"ers. It was beyond miserable.

 

State College averages in the low to mid 50's, no?  Much more in the higher spots...in practically every direction.  Everybody north & west of Harrisburg usually has a good snowy winter in PA...Harrisburg, being east of the mountains...usually has mediocre winters. 

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DT is on the nam bandwagon for this storm, thinks it's trending south...

This was his last call. I think he did ok. 6-10 for most of the area. He was off for eastern LI and parts of northern NJ.

And he had the transition times mostly correct.

post-11-0-33939900-1425666128_thumb.jpg

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State College averages in the low to mid 50's, no?  Much more in the higher spots...in practically every direction.  Everybody north & west of Harrisburg usually has a good snowy winter in PA...Harrisburg, being east of the mountains...usually has mediocre winters. 

UNV averages about 45" per winter, the mountains of SW PA can reach 200" in a few spots due to the upslope. Johnstown averages about 75", Williamsport around 40". The area has had some decent and above average winters in the last 10 years but nothing hugely above average and some real stinkers. 

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Guest Pamela

Steve D says we are done with snow. If you want snow next weekend go to Vermont he says..lol.

 

I would not rate him as my first choice for any type of meteorological advice...

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Steve D says we are done with snow. If you want snow next weekend go to Vermont he says..lol.

Thanks Steve now we're going to get a late March KU.

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I would not rate him as my first choice for any type of meteorological advice...

I agree with you about Steve D

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Guest Pamela

I feel bad for the poor souls that have to pay for said bad advice... :(

 

With all the available information on the internet regarding weather....anyone who actually enters into a contractual agreement and agrees to pay a fee to receive a weather report...all I can say is it is very strange. 

 

Moderator, feel free to delete...

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Guest Pamela

In all candor, I have to say it has been years since I've given even the slightest consideration to what *any* media outlet was predicting with regards to a snow event...I have eyes & model access & access to all needed synoptic charts & radar and I can evaluate the situation and attendant conditions and decide for myself.  So I always laugh just a bit when anyone writes "So & so says NYC will get a foot'...as if that person somehow has the insight that the rest of the universe lacks.  But I can understand that approach for someone new to the hobby; but for the long time observer and weather fan...its lol worthy.

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With all the available information on the internet regarding weather....anyone who actually enters into a contractual agreement and agrees to pay a fee to receive a weather report...all I can say is it is very strange. 

 

Moderator, feel free to delete...

This...I plow snow and this forum is sooo far ahead of the curve  (PB GFI) :)

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In all candor, I have to say it has been years since I've given even the slightest consideration to what *any* media outlet was predicting with regards to a snow event...I have eyes & model access & access to all needed synoptic charts & radar and I can evaluate the situation and attendant conditions and decide for myself. So I always laugh just a bit when anyone writes "So & so says NYC will get a foot'...as if that person somehow has the insight that the rest of the universe lacks. But I can understand that approach for someone new to the hobby; but for the long time observer and weather fan...its lol worthy.

Exactly !! Most of us here can, at the very least, view a few model runs and gauge the intensity of the system. This allows us to have a better idea of what to expect than what was seen on an earlier local forecast. When the TV mets say "we have some new info coming in, and amounts might have to be adjusted", we know what that new info is and where it is coming from. The forecasts that are notable are the ones that come from respected mets and are not simply in support of model data. If a 1-3 inch snowfall forecast was made at 7am and was followed by almost all of the 12z model runs shifting the storm track and now giving us 6-12 inches of snow, we pretty much all know that any reputable news source will update and televise the new forecast to reflect the changes in their next update (and will probably be fairly conservative and forecast "4-8 inches now but could go even higher if this new info is right"). I will always look forward to reading a forecast by a met/pro forecaster that I have respect for, yet the snow maps that change with each model run are really for those new to the hobby (though it can be entertaining watching people get bothered by the fact that they are 20 miles away from the 6" line on a map, yet the new GFS shows them getting 10")

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In all candor, I have to say it has been years since I've given even the slightest consideration to what *any* media outlet was predicting with regards to a snow event...I have eyes & model access & access to all needed synoptic charts & radar and I can evaluate the situation and attendant conditions and decide for myself.  So I always laugh just a bit when anyone writes "So & so says NYC will get a foot'...as if that person somehow has the insight that the rest of the universe lacks.  But I can understand that approach for someone new to the hobby; but for the long time observer and weather fan...its lol worthy.

I don't about lol-worthy. Part of why I do it is to keep track of accuracy -- or that lack of it.

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With all the available information on the internet regarding weather....anyone who actually enters into a contractual agreement and agrees to pay a fee to receive a weather report...all I can say is it is very strange. 

 

Moderator, feel free to delete...

I completely agree... considered buying his service, then realized I can get same info everywhere else for free

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