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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


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from Craig Allen, once again spot on, particularly the bolded part

 

All 12z data looked at, including 9z sref and latest RAP. No northward trend at all. Only thing is CMC's rgem and cgem still try to pivot a bit more moisture up towards LI from south Jersey thru midday Monday.

Otherwise, the dense, heavy cold air will easily win the battle at our latitude, for our listening/viewing area. Snow amounts from last night will continue at the low end but ranges will still be given to account for wiggle room.

The jackpot continues to be south Jersey on down thru PHL, BWI, DCA, VA, WVA. 12"+ (up to 18" not out of the question) as it continues into Monday afternoon down there.

I speak for many of my colleagues...If you're wondering 'wasn't that supposed to happen here?' Just look to all the non-credible internet sources that posted snowfall maps last week. Our models are suggestions of what the atmosphere may do, THEY ARE NOT FORECASTS, especially so far in advance. But, once the media gets a hold of that, it becomes a growing, non-stop story. Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.
3rd time it has happened this winter. I'm sure they're already drawing their weather maps for the possible late week storm, filled with danger symbols, frightening verbage posted across the US and deadly red colors with bold type and plenty of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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from Craig Allen, once again spot on, particularly the bolded part

 

All 12z data looked at, including 9z sref and latest RAP. No northward trend at all. Only thing is CMC's rgem and cgem still try to pivot a bit more moisture up towards LI from south Jersey thru midday Monday.

Otherwise, the dense, heavy cold air will easily win the battle at our latitude, for our listening/viewing area. Snow amounts from last night will continue at the low end but ranges will still be given to account for wiggle room.

The jackpot continues to be south Jersey on down thru PHL, BWI, DCA, VA, WVA. 12"+ (up to 18" not out of the question) as it continues into Monday afternoon down there.

I speak for many of my colleagues...If you're wondering 'wasn't that supposed to happen here?' Just look to all the non-credible internet sources that posted snowfall maps last week. Our models are suggestions of what the atmosphere may do, THEY ARE NOT FORECASTS, especially so far in advance. But, once the media gets a hold of that, it becomes a growing, non-stop story. Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.

3rd time it has happened this winter. I'm sure they're already drawing their weather maps for the possible late week storm, filled with danger symbols, frightening verbage posted across the US and deadly red colors with bold type and plenty of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Craig Allen now THERE is a Met/ Forcaster and you Tristate guy,whatever your name is Adam or whatever, are utterly and completly out of line about your tonality about Steve D who has more preofessionalism in his pinky than you do. Its ok to bust and be big enough to admit it- what you are doing is infantile. NUF SAID! (PfDude these words are meant for Tristate guy up above in the page I m merely quoting your Craig Allen post)

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from Craig Allen, once again spot on, particularly the bolded part

 

All 12z data looked at, including 9z sref and latest RAP. No northward trend at all. Only thing is CMC's rgem and cgem still try to pivot a bit more moisture up towards LI from south Jersey thru midday Monday.

Otherwise, the dense, heavy cold air will easily win the battle at our latitude, for our listening/viewing area. Snow amounts from last night will continue at the low end but ranges will still be given to account for wiggle room.

The jackpot continues to be south Jersey on down thru PHL, BWI, DCA, VA, WVA. 12"+ (up to 18" not out of the question) as it continues into Monday afternoon down there.

I speak for many of my colleagues...If you're wondering 'wasn't that supposed to happen here?' Just look to all the non-credible internet sources that posted snowfall maps last week. Our models are suggestions of what the atmosphere may do, THEY ARE NOT FORECASTS, especially so far in advance. But, once the media gets a hold of that, it becomes a growing, non-stop story. Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.

3rd time it has happened this winter. I'm sure they're already drawing their weather maps for the possible late week storm, filled with danger symbols, frightening verbage posted across the US and deadly red colors with bold type and plenty of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I completely agree with Craig Allen.

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In all honesty, I have respect for Steve D and his forecasts. Sure, I think he is a bit overdone and sometimes has conspiracy theories about storms developing way more south or north than modeled, etc lol.....but there is a weather weenie in even the best forecasters. I give him credit for staying active on his twitter even during the heart of the storm to support his forecast or admit it's wrong. Many others will make a forecast and then of course are nowhere to be found during or after the event. I find his forecasts to be good reads altogether

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
314 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 20 TONIGHT.

* TIMING...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

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In all honesty, I have respect for Steve D and his forecasts. Sure, I think he is a bit overdone and sometimes has conspiracy theories about storms developing way more south or north than modeled, etc lol.....but there is a weather weenie in even the best forecasters. I give him credit for staying active on his twitter even during the heart of the storm to support his forecast or admit it's wrong. Many others will make a forecast and then of course are nowhere to be found during or after the event. I find his forecasts to be good reads altogether

Sent from my iPhone

Steve might be a good met, but I have no respect for him because of how he treats people. Many times I've seen him attack and mock people just for disagreeing with him. And not just with weather. Steve was pretty much the most hated poster on Metsblog because of how he constantly mocked other Mets fans for just disagreeing with him. I remember him saying anyone who agreed with the Mets' plan of rebuilding should go be a Pirates fan. Steve just doesn't know how to disagree with people in a civil manner.

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In all honesty, I have respect for Steve D and his forecasts. Sure, I think he is a bit overdone and sometimes has conspiracy theories about storms developing way more south or north than modeled, etc lol.....but there is a weather weenie in even the best forecasters. I give him credit for staying active on his twitter even during the heart of the storm to support his forecast or admit it's wrong. Many others will make a forecast and then of course are nowhere to be found during or after the event. I find his forecasts to be good reads altogether

Sent from my iPhone

he has nutty theories about other things too but I won't get into it

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From earlier in this thread, Craig Allen was quoted as follows:

 

Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.

 

The Internet and social media have eliminated entry barriers to forecasting publicly. Hence, the entities Allen refers to have emerged, not all of which are new entities run and/or staffed by meteorologists.

 

At this time, there is no rigorous evaluation. IMO, the meteorology degree provides substantial value. Hence, if a rigorous system of public evaluations emerged, one could ascertain which new entities fared well and which ones did not. I suspect that even if an entity relied strictly on any given model, one would find that it still would not be very competitive against the better meteorologists i.e., Craig Allen, Glenn Schwartz, the NWS forecast offices, etc.

 

Until such a system evolves, there is risk that some of the more outlandish forecasts will gain attention and, when they bust, damage the reputation of all in the field. That would be an unfortunate outcome and loss of credibility among the field could have an adverse public safety impact.
 

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From earlier in this thread, Craig Allen was quoted as follows:

Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.

The Internet and social media have eliminated entry barriers to forecasting publicly. Hence, the entities Allen refers to have emerged, not all of which are new entities run and/or staffed by meteorologists.

At this time, there is no rigorous evaluation. IMO, the meteorology degree provides substantial value. Hence, if a rigorous system of public evaluations emerged, one could ascertain which new entities fared well and which ones did not. I suspect that even if an entity relied strictly on any given model, one would find that it still would not be very competitive against the better meteorologists i.e., Craig Allen, Glenn Schwartz, the NWS forecast offices, etc.

Until such a system evolves, there is risk that some of the more outlandish forecasts will gain attention and, when they bust, damage the reputation of all in the field. That would be an unfortunate outcome and loss of credibility among the field could have an adverse public safety impact.

Craig also commented that one of his colleagues was forced to put out a number back on Thursday due to all the buzz on social media. I wasn't sure if he meant on 880 or TV. It does seem like this winter and the explosion of entities on Facebook have forever changed forecasting and how the public gets forecasts moving forward... Particular concerning big winter storms

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Craig also commented that one of his colleagues was forced to put out a number back on Thursday due to all the buzz on social media. I wasn't sure if he meant on 880 or TV. It does seem like this winter and the explosion of entities on Facebook have forever changed forecasting and how the public gets forecasts moving forward... Particular concerning big winter storms

I agree. It's unfortunate if anyone reacts to the social media buzz to put out a number when the timeframe is so uncertain, especially at a time of year when forecasting challenges are particularly great. Eventually, I suspect there will be a kind of "sorting out." The pushback now starting to occur from reputable meteorologists may represent the beginning of such a process.

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I agree. It's unfortunate if anyone reacts to the social media buzz to put out a number when the timeframe is so uncertain, especially at a time of year when forecasting challenges are particularly great. Eventually, I suspect there will be a kind of "sorting out." The pushback now starting to occur from reputable meteorologists may represent the beginning of such a process.

I had people asking me for accumulations amount since last Wednesday, this is getting insane. This time was made even worst because of the models had Around 12" for three days in a row and the public knew that.

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The better conversation since we all know the issue:

How do you stop it?

To me, it is always about education.

Those that follow the Facebook weather outlets really don't know the difference between them, the weather channel or the nws or the difference between a model run or a forecast no matter how many times you explain it

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Those that follow the Facebook weather outlets really don't know the difference between them, the weather channel or the nws or the difference between a model run or a forecast no matter how many times you explain it

I worry that some or many who rely on the social media forecasts don't actually believe there is a difference. I've had discussions with people who have asserted that the Internet, blogging, and social media have rendered journalists all but obsolete when it comes to news. It would not surprise me if a similar attitude is emerging with respect to weather forecasting. This is very unfortunate, as there is a large qualitative difference. Such an attitude could also have public safety implications if it takes hold.

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Those that follow the Facebook weather outlets really don't know the difference between them, the weather channel or the nws or the difference between a model run or a forecast no matter how many times you explain it

That's the point. You can't stop it.  It's a moot point.

 

Cigarettes are bad.  People smoke them. 

 

Drinking and driving kills.  People do it. 

 

Many Facebook pages suck at weather forecasting and 'jump the gun' with ridiculously early forecasts:  People read it and buy it.

 

You educate as much as you can, but you'll never stop it...

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That's the point. You can't stop it.  It's a moot point.

 

Cigarettes are bad.  People smoke them. 

 

Drinking and driving kills.  People do it. 

 

Many Facebook pages suck at weather forecasting and 'jump the gun' with ridiculously early forecasts:  People read it and buy it.

 

You educate as much as you can, but you'll never stop it...

I hit post too soon. 

 

But what you can do, is educate and REGULATE it.  You can't smoke till you're 18 and you can't drink till you're 21.  People do and they get in trouble.

 

You can't post ANY Gov't owned weather models w/o a Meteorology degree. 

 

Good luck w/ that...

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You don`t EVER  stop free speech , NEVER  yelling fire in a move theatre or threatening someone`s life is where you draw the line .

Putting a bad forecast out on social media by some nit wit isn't any worse than Upton putting out 8 inches out in an AFD 72 hours out .

Weather is never going to be defined by those who they think they know more than other , the hardest part of this is   trying to solve a moving atmosphere using numerical modeling  and it has its limitations .

YOU NEVER REGULATE FREE SPEECH ,  OR ONE DAY THEY REGULATE YOU . 

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You don`t EVER stop free speech , NEVER yelling fire in a move theatre or threatening someone`s life is where you draw the line .

Putting a bad forecast out on social media by some nit wit isn't any worse than Upton putting out 8 inches out in an AFD 72 hours out .

Weather is never going to be defined by those who they think they know more than other , the hardest part of this is trying to solve a moving atmosphere using numerical modeling and it has its limitations .

YOU NEVER REGULATE FREE SPEECH , OR ONE DAY THEY REGULATE YOU .

The difference is as we saw last month how quickly a posted snowfall map from one control run can go viral in a day. Anyone reading Upton's AFD is likely intelligent enough to discern what they're talking about.

You can't stop amateurs for putting out forecasts but as don said when people can't tell the difference it hurts the reputation of the pros who know what they're talking about.

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From earlier in this thread, Craig Allen was quoted as follows:

 

Models did a pretty darn good job of developing this pattern and the potential big snow but pinpointing where it would actually be more than 3 days away is insane, unless you are one of the dozen or so weather 'authorities' that have popped up all over the country.

 

The Internet and social media have eliminated entry barriers to forecasting publicly. Hence, the entities Allen refers to have emerged, not all of which are new entities run and/or staffed by meteorologists.

 

At this time, there is no rigorous evaluation. IMO, the meteorology degree provides substantial value. Hence, if a rigorous system of public evaluations emerged, one could ascertain which new entities fared well and which ones did not. I suspect that even if an entity relied strictly on any given model, one would find that it still would not be very competitive against the better meteorologists i.e., Craig Allen, Glenn Schwartz, the NWS forecast offices, etc.

 

Until such a system evolves, there is risk that some of the more outlandish forecasts will gain attention and, when they bust, damage the reputation of all in the field. That would be an unfortunate outcome and loss of credibility among the field could have an adverse public safety impact.

 

Don, it's up to the consumer to pick the best product. Whether it be automobiles, canned soup or a weather forecast. We can't be wringing our hands because there's too much choice and too much free speech going on. It's the consumer who is ultimately responsible for finding a reliable forecast.

 

These new sources of weather forecasting will either swim(not likely) or sink(most likely) based on the successes and failures they have. And it sounds to me from the false forecasts going around, that these folks are failing.

 

Good forecasters such as Glenn Schwartz, Nick Gregory and what ever unknown may pop up will thrive.

 

Consumers who pick unreliable forecasters will learn their lesson while poor consumers who don't learn their lesson will get what they deserve.

 

Regards.

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You don`t EVER  stop free speech , NEVER  yelling fire in a move theatre or threatening someone`s life is where you draw the line .

Putting a bad forecast out on social media by some nit wit isn't any worse than Upton putting out 8 inches out in an AFD 72 hours out .

Weather is never going to be defined by those who they think they know more than other , the hardest part of this is   trying to solve a moving atmosphere using numerical modeling  and it has its limitations .

YOU NEVER REGULATE FREE SPEECH ,  OR ONE DAY THEY REGULATE YOU . 

Regulating Free Speech versus stopping someone from using scientific informatin without a scientific degree are rather different. 

 

I can't practice medicine either, but should I start a website that gives out information about what I think because I have read some forums or text books?

 

It's not about stopping free speech, it's about protecting people Paul. 

 

I'm not saying one way or the other --- just playing a wee bit of Devil's Advocate here...

 

By the way, I said it's a moot point because it will NEVER stop happening anymore!

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