jm1220 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 You know, have to give a slight edge on this one around here to the Euro. The majority of our precip was frozen or non-accumulating frozen, which was what the Euro had. Also had more of a rain chance up around Williamsport. The GFS had us getting mostly rain and there were no hints of this current snow. I suppose you could make an argument it was a draw but based on the literal portrayals of this storm, it was pretty damn good. This was not what the GFS "had in mind" for State College this morning: I had a feeling that UNV/AOO would get more snow or frozen than rain with this one just based on how other borderline situations have panned out there. The Susquehanna Valley even up to IPT was a lot tougher, as we saw. But this wrap around snow should mean that everyone gets in on the fun at least for a while. Hopefully this can drop another few inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Lol @ Euro in the D7-8 range. Brings up a Gulf low and cuts it off on the VA coastline with a significant to major snow event in most of PA (especially southern 1/2 to 2/3rds). The pattern could certainly allow for that scenario... our luck with getting the big storm this year in a place to actually deliver something significant to a widespread part of PA is a different story. If I had 1" of snow everytime the models at day 7 showed me getting a snowstorm, I'd have 50" instead of the 12" or so I currently have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Hahaha right on canderson. Im done with this day 8 stuff. I just want low 50s and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 wow - it is just dumping snow here...huge flakes. 1.5" snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 clearfield bypass traffic cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 If I had 1" of snow everytime the models at day 7 showed me getting a snowstorm, I'd have 50" instead of the 12" or so I currently have. Hahaha right on canderson. Im done with this day 8 stuff. I just want low 50s and sun. But we're in a different pattern than we were. Patterns change. We have blocking now, something that is new. I've named some years in previous posts where March had snow after a fairly snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 clearfield bypass traffic cam Thumping like crazy IMBY also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Can you all share some of that snow this way please - your lower lower Sus Valley friends in Lancaster county And the potential is always there for something to happen. You should read the posts from Don Sutherland in the Medium Range Discussion. I am hoping March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lion. Come on SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Can you all share some of that snow this way please - your lower lower Sus Valley friends in Lancaster county And the potential is always there for something to happen. You should read the posts from Don Sutherland in the Medium Range Discussion. I am hoping March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lion. Come on SNOW! Sure, sounds good to me. Hope you get something before it's really over. The Euro Weeklies look like the CPC's warm March forecast is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Wow, I've never seen such giant flakes before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Snowing burt will good precip ever make it our way...or die out. Remains the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Looks like an inch so far. Maybe we can eek out 2 as heavy band moves through. This has been the winter of the giant snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Dollar sized flakes continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 For once, I wish I was out by you guys for a weather event. Must be some crazy rates in that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Wow, I've never seen such giant flakes before! Yeah, they are impressive. About 4-5 winters ago we had a minor 3-4 inch event that had larger ones. They were so large they made little thud noises as they hit. Crazy. Snowing burt will good precip ever make it our way...or die out. Remains the question. Nice, man. Hope it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Jm we are snow now even with light rates will that band make it to ipt or do you think it will dry up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 You know, a few times over the past several years PSUHoffman has popped into our thread from the Mid Atlantic one. He really seems to know his stuff and does well at sniffing out chances. He has been saying that he likes the 3/1-3/10 time period for his area, I would have to assume that would apply to us LSV folks as well. I'm going with him on this. Bumped from last week...come on, let's do this next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Jm we are snow now even with light rates will that band make it to ipt or do you think it will dry up? Looks like you guys should get at least something from it as it heads NE. The area of frontogenesis driving that band doesn't look to be dying anytime soon. Models showed this backlash snow developing last night in response to dynamics shifting east so you guys should at least salvage something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 right around 2" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Bumped from last week...come on, let's do this next week! I think we have a couple legit chances before the pattern breaks down. Blocking is just now getting into a good spot for us. Pna going + too. Usually there is a lag and our best shots come as the pattern matures. I think the march 6-10 period looks good then I think towards the 15 we might get another shot if the pattern reloads. You can't get a more loaded setup then a +Pna -nao with blocking where it is in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I think we have a couple legit chances before the pattern breaks down. Blocking is just now getting into a good spot for us. Pna going + too. Usually there is a lag and our best shots come as the pattern matures. I think the march 6-10 period looks good then I think towards the 15 we might get another shot if the pattern reloads. You can't get a more loaded setup then a +Pna -nao with blocking where it is in march. <weenie> So you're saying we'll have a repeat of the storm of the century? </weenie> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 WSI sticking to warmer than normal March for PA?..... http://www.weather.com/news/wsi-seasonal-outlook-spring-2013-20130226 "Normal" average daily temperatures for MDT start at 37 March 1 and climb to 47 March 31st... 33 to 44 for Williamsport... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I think we have a couple legit chances before the pattern breaks down. Blocking is just now getting into a good spot for us. Pna going + too. Usually there is a lag and our best shots come as the pattern matures. I think the march 6-10 period looks good then I think towards the 15 we might get another shot if the pattern reloads. You can't get a more loaded setup then a +Pna -nao with blocking where it is in march. Thank you, you really should post here more often. One, your climo fits our area much better than the mid atlantic, and two...we have the friendliest sub forum around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I mean, it has been 20 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 just seen the euro on dt's facebook page. that would be the perfect storm for us...huge area of 18"+ would make everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I mean, it has been 20 years... yeah - only 80 more years to go...cant wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Thank you, you really should post here more often. One, your climo fits our area much better than the mid atlantic, and two...we have the friendliest sub forum around. I will, I just know the poeple down there more from my time living in the DC area. My dates might be a bit off, but I think we have two windows to watch. The first is next week...I am not sure about this system the Euro goes nuts with. It does that by merging the system diving into the trough with the H5 low over the lakes and thus allowing the flow to back along the east coast and we get a bomb. That goes against every seasonal trend this year, and is not supported by the ensembles or any other guidance. Its possible, but I put it at low probability. Usually with these type setups we get some supression at first, then as the pattern matures we see it relax enough to allow storms to amplify, and that is when our window is. The storm day 7-9 might have a shot, but after that I definitely like our chances for something. The block is not just going to go away easy like a couple runs of the GFS had yesterday. I think we have a window from about March 7th to March 22nd or so... I think somewhere in there things might relax a bit, before one final amplification of the trough before the pattern breaks down. I just wish this was a month ago, we are getting a little late for those of us in southern PA or near the MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I mean, it has been 20 years... 13 years ago, we started a new century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Wow, I've never seen such giant flakes before! Yep...huge flakes but not accumulating. Nice to look at anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I think we have a couple legit chances before the pattern breaks down. Blocking is just now getting into a good spot for us. Pna going + too. Usually there is a lag and our best shots come as the pattern matures. I think the march 6-10 period looks good then I think towards the 15 we might get another shot if the pattern reloads. You can't get a more loaded setup then a +Pna -nao with blocking where it is in march. Thank you, you really should post here more often. One, your climo fits our area much better than the mid atlantic, and two...we have the friendliest sub forum around. Agreed...Manchester MD is practically PA anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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