Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yep improvement for the cape crew:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well the pattern is moving, no block..nothing to really keep it from slowing down. Wait -- I thought this was a different pattern from the fast-flow regime that dominated most of Jan.?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wait -- I thought this was a different pattern from the fast-flow regime that dominated most of Jan.?? It is, just saying this trough is a little too far east and it doesn't slow down enough while it's digging. That's different from January when nothing would even attempt to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 some watches out in central coastal Maine...blizzard watches out for down east Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GYX has posted winter storm watches for Midcoast and points east, including Kennebec County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Low is weaker and further out to sea on the NAM at 39, but the trough is slightly more tilted so the precip extends a bit further back into SNE. I don't really see much improvement over 12z. Oh no word on the ensembles..they must be pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nose up against the glass here.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Brian, you have euro ens precip? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Uh oh Kevin... @danburyweather: For those who don't want snow, you'll like the forecast I'm working on! Snowfall maps coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Phil what are you thinking for our neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This prediction map leans fairly heavily on the GEM and any shift in the track indicated either way would shift the snowfall contours, also any more rapid deepening than shown on that track could boost amounts in e MA and se NH in particular. Maximum potential about 24 in (60 cm) near Woodstock NB and Houlton ME. Some specific predictions: Boston 7.5" Worcester 4.5" Providence 4.0" (really 6 normal inches) Chatham MA 9.5" Concord 12.5" Portland 17" Bangor 19" Augusta 15" most of CT 3-5 inches but could be a lot higher if the storm explosively deepens before passing 41N. In Nova Scotia, a snow to freezing rain to rain mix will limit amounts especially Halifax east. Phase change will only affect NS (except possibly Digby-Yarmouth) and e PEI, briefly s.e. NB. Winds NNE backing NW 40-60 mph in Portland and Boston, 50-70 mph over the Cape and islands. This may be close to a non-event for metro NYC but will say 1-3 inches possible, to 2-5 inches over most of Long Island. SNOWFALL PREDICTION -- Inches -- valid 00z Feb 16 to 12z Feb 18 2013 May post an update if guidance changes substantially. Everything depends on where this begins to deepen, more than track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NCEP said it best today. THE SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT CONVERGED YET TIMING-WISE SO THE PATH OFLEAST REGRET IS TO USE CONSENSUS UNTIL THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONSCLOSES. Just wait and see. Looking at the maps it'll come down to the strength of the digging s/w. The first piece coming out of S/Dakota right now looks okay at best, second piece coming across northern Mexico....it's really what those two do together over the Big Easy later that matters. If they get cranking, all bets are off. Looks kind of weak sauce right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 CON a foot? lol...no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This prediction map leans fairly heavily on the GEM and any shift in the track indicated either way would shift the snowfall contours, also any more rapid deepening than shown on that track could boost amounts in e MA and se NH in particular. Maximum potential about 24 in (60 cm) near Woodstock NB and Houlton ME. Some specific predictions: Boston 7.5" Worcester 4.5" Providence 4.0" (really 6 normal inches) Chatham MA 9.5" Concord 12.5" Portland 17" Bangor 19" Augusta 15" most of CT 3-5 inches but could be a lot higher if the storm explosively deepens before passing 41N. In Nova Scotia, a snow to freezing rain to rain mix will limit amounts especially Halifax east. Phase change will only affect NS (except possibly Digby-Yarmouth) and e PEI, briefly s.e. NB. Winds NNE backing NW 40-60 mph in Portland and Boston, 50-70 mph over the Cape and islands. This may be close to a non-event for metro NYC but will say 1-3 inches possible, to 2-5 inches over most of Long Island. feb1618.jpg SNOWFALL PREDICTION -- Inches -- valid 00z Feb 16 to 12z Feb 18 2013 May post an update if guidance changes substantially. Everything depends on where this begins to deepen, more than track at this point. I hope your verification scores are high................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Uh oh Kevin... @danburyweather: For those who don't want snow, you'll like the forecast I'm working on! Snowfall maps coming soon. I'm sure everyone will be eagerly tuning in for the uneventful forecast. Lots of relieved folks with picnic and BBQ plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nose up against the glass here.............. StormTotalSnowFcst.png Definitely more bullish than I expected. Looks like GYX issued watches for the mid-coast, and CAR has a blizzard watch NE of that. Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 BOX issues watches for ern PYM County, CC and the Islands for 4-8, but said it could be more or less depending on track. The euro still has a good deformation zone over the area which signifies a red flag to me for higher amounts possible...just looked at the weenie maps now. I'm still not feeling a big event at the moment...but hopefully a 2-4 deal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Phil with a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Guys it's clear as day what's going on. The NAM and the eastern camp focus more on the southern s/w coming across northern Mexico right now. Loop at 500mb. They shoot that out never really phasing with the other s/w energy coming out of the Plains. The major low develops in conjunction with that ejected s/w. The GFS says hold the bus, phases the two s/ws between 9z and 12z Saturday which then bombs the low closer to the coast. The NAM is going to be trash I think, but the GFS could be overdone. Regardless of what the models show in the next 6-12 hours, we'll know in the morning. If the s/w in the based of the trough looks like crap, we're hosed aside of the weaker snows. If we've got a s/w with drying evident behind it by morning, get out the shovels at least in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Definitely more bullish than I expected. Looks like GYX issued watches for the mid-coast, and CAR has a blizzard watch NE of that. Hmmm... 50 miles east or west will make some significant differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 BOX issues watches for ern PYM County, CC and the Islands for 4-8, but said it could be more or less depending on track. The euro still has a good deformation zone over the area which signifies a red flag to me for higher amounts possible...just looked at the weenie maps now. I'm still not feeling a big event at the moment...but hopefully a 2-4 deal here. How were the Ens scooteroo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 How were the Ens scooteroo? I can't see precip, but looked similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 BOX issues watches for ern PYM County, CC and the Islands for 4-8, but said it could be more or less depending on track. The euro still has a good deformation zone over the area which signifies a red flag to me for higher amounts possible...just looked at the weenie maps now. I'm still not feeling a big event at the moment...but hopefully a 2-4 deal here. Box has been like sending in Mike Seidel for my neighborhood. No watches/advisories we get 2" per hour snows in the middle of the night, watches we get windblown dust bunnies. bad juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man snow may break out in CT as early as 10:00 tonight. Maybe 1-2 OTG by morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 CON a foot? lol...no way. Hell, I'll take the 6 inches I am slated for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well, there certainly is a nice temperature gradient to work off of, so so close, just wish the damn TA was further west and had gone negative a bit earlier, this could have been special...........and still might be out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Rollo Tomasi, you are right, the question becomes the nature of the phase potential, what becomes of it? Will the northern stream shortwave phase with the shortwave over MX or will it glide on by and out to sea? I just don't know what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Front Is already thru the Berks. PSF winds NW and temps crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.