weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Quick FOUS peek...0.35 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That might end up beign a pretty good weenie band from the first round over the interior. The parameters look pretty good for it looking at the mesoanalysis ad the RAP forecasts for the next 9-12 hours or so. May end up being the only band if we continue the east shifts on guidance....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Rgem is better...so close. Drops 25 mb in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Rgem is better...so close. Drops 25 mb in 12 hours Yeah looked like advisory for eastern areas...maybe even back to ORH. We still lose it too quickly though to give big snows even to the Cape...it pokes a nice initial band up into the eastern half of SNE but then everything slides east pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Rgem is better...so close. Drops 25 mb in 12 hours Within miles of being something special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can't multi quote...but agree with all of you. We need the couple of s/ws to pop later tonight. If we see a strengthening s/w later tonight we may be game on. This isn't even a bomb, this is atomic. We are talking 40-50mb in 24 hours. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can't multi quote...but agree with all of you. We need the couple of s/ws to pop later tonight. If we see a strengthening s/w later tonight we may be game on. This isn't even a bomb, this is atomic. We are talking 40-50mb in 24 hours. Wow I can't remember exactly which year, it may have been 2001-2002, but there was a storm that missed well east that went from 1004 to 948mb in less than 24 hours as it slammed across NS - that was during that epic year where they had like 15' on the level up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 We are expecting a boatload of rain here. Combined with the snow melt could make things very interesting. Not boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can't remember exactly which year, it may have been 2001-2002, but there was a storm that missed well east that went from 1004 to 948mb in less than 24 hours as it slammed across NS - that was during that epic year where they had like 15' on the level up there. Its down yonder from here...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can't remember exactly which year, it may have been 2001-2002, but there was a storm that missed well east that went from 1004 to 948mb in less than 24 hours as it slammed across NS - that was during that epic year where they had like 15' on the level up there. 2000-2001 was the winter they had 15 feet of snow...but I'm wondering if you aren;t thinking of the year before that with the January 20, 2000 storm. We got scraped by it, but it superbombed (like 50mb in 24 hours) down into the 948 range. There were like two NGM runs that brought it close enough to give BOS 4" of liquid, which is nearly unheard of even on the WRF/ETA models, nevermind the old dry NGM model. Boston mets were so unsure of what to do. I remember Harvey upped his forecast to like 6-10" while others went even higher but Harvey stated that some models were giving Boston an epic blizzard, but he just wasn't quite biting on it yet....turned out to be a prudent move as the storm eventually missed wide right and we all ended up with around 3 or 4" of snow except the outer Cape got 8-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 2000-2001 was the winter they had 15 feet of snow...but I'm wondering if you aren;t thinking of the year before that with the January 20, 2000 storm. We got scraped by it, but it superbombed (like 50mb in 24 hours) down into the 948 range. There were like two NGM runs that brought it close enough to give BOS 4" of liquid, which is nearly unheard of even on the WRF/ETA models, nevermind the old dry NGM model. Boston mets were so unsure of what to do. I remember Harvey upped his forecast to like 6-10" while others went even higher but Harvey stated that some models were giving Boston an epic blizzard, but he just wasn't quite biting on it yet....turned out to be a prudent move as the storm eventually missed wide right and we all ended up with around 3 or 4" of snow except the outer Cape got 8-10" Yup, that's the one - I thought it was that same year but it was more like that same era in my life. Yeah, that was just the most ridiculously powerful thing on satellite... Makes the blizzard the other day a distant bumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Will interesting so it came out of a similar pattern to this one because we had 1/25 a few days later. Our only shot is this thing going bonkers late tonight aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS will be better I think. Looks like better downstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 These subtle shifts can be the difference to something more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS will be better I think. Looks like better downstream ridging. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS will be better I think. Looks like better downstream ridging. Agree. Ridge must more pronounced poking west towards NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This may be a bigger deal for the Cape, not sure it means much west of BOS..but better anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice hit for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Man tremendous lifts kisses the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 We all focus on different things. To me...I like the stronger s/w coming across Texas. Rap was on this. Would love to see drying evident later in association with it as it rounds the bottom. I'm pretty confident this starts bombing earlier and ends up further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I still think this has a chance to surprise and really pop west in shorter range. The problem I am having with this is that I am not entirely convinced the primary baroclinic zone/frontal slope will be advective very far off the coast. It's almost like the NAM runs have been placing that too far east of the trough axis prior to the main jet dynamics rounding the base of the trough. The bump west tonight might just be the beginning of the model(s) honing in on that. The low isn't going to detonate in the warm air east of boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Its a tick west from 18z, Subtle but a tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I still think this has a chance to surprise and really pop west in shorter range. The problem I am having with this is that I am not entirely convinced the primary baroclinic zone/frontal slope will be advective very far off the coast. It's almost like the NAM runs have been placing that too far east of the trough axis prior to the main jet dynamics rounding the base of the trough. The bump west tonight might just be the beginning of the model(s) honing in on that. The low isn't going to detonate in the warm air east of boundary Agree may be a function of the problems aloft. The last few systems threw the heavy band further north than modeled. This will do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Man the setup is there at all levels, bomb this 6 hours earlier and it tugs west 75-100 miles. Tip and Rollo are zoning in on their specialities. Let's hope the Baroclinic zone is closer and that Texas SW triggers bombogenisis. I know we whiff potential at times but man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Agree may be a function of the problems aloft. The last few systems threw the heavy band further north than modeled. This will do the same. Well I don't know if it will do the same, but there are reasons to question the initial set-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ukie not drinking the Kool Aid. We'll see what the GGEM has in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Wow at that ggem, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This one is looking to be a near miss other then some primary snow for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Great having dialogue dealing with the finer details of this potentail. It's been a powderkeg for 4 days. Just a minut difference in timing and development. The last few runs 12Z, 18Z and present run of the GFS, the height rises in the maritimes, multiple s/w, nuetral trough that appears to want to go negative each succesive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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