N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 nice hit on the usually more tame 12km version of the 18z btv wrf meso belivable IMO for the FIRST event. Actually becoming confident advisory levels are met easily in a stripe, maybe 6 or so .....has been consistent for 2 cycles (may mean nothing) but eye raising to me to show this narrow thrust of precip from SW CT thru N central CT up thru N orh into Nashua. .5 + to springfield by 1am ?!! then the band continues over on line to nash tomm late am. with .5 +......with a few weenie lolli's to .75. tapers off quickly on either side of that line. but man could be a intersting meso set up tonite where the best forcing sets up. i mention this bc this is less than 12 hrs out and this is a more meso scale event and this model is really hittin it for some areas in a fairly narrow swath. click on 24 qpf. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/12kmwrf/index.php this model also likes messengers area on east for .5 to 1.0 qpf in second event. with .25 from S shore to ktan to SE ri... SE ward. obv a swing 50 miles puts more in the game or all out but as we've said bears some watching. I would think this model may have better handle on the first event given the meso scale nature while i wouldn't hold my breath on its handling of the coastal. I'll leave that to the euro /gfs 70/30 blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nova Scotia looks like the place to be on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That might end up beign a pretty good weenie band from the first round over the interior. The parameters look pretty good for it looking at the mesoanalysis ad the RAP forecasts for the next 9-12 hours or so. do you see the best paramaters setting up from like DXR to Springfield over to (you/dave) toward KASH? or somewhere else... and is confidence decent where this occurs in your opinon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 do you see the best paramaters setting up from like DXR to Springfield over to (you/dave) toward KASH? or somewhere else... and is confidence decent where this occurs in your opinon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 do you see the best paramaters setting up from like DXR to Springfield over to (you/dave) toward KASH? or somewhere else... and is confidence decent where this occurs in your opinon I think initially it will set up over NW areas but shift a bit E with time...I like the Berkshires to N ORH hills on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 i see those reports in westminster,md of clumps of snow falling from the sky...... unfortunately that's what i figured wrt where it sets up or just SE of where u mentioned.....either way i'm pretty much left out, but def worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice, NAM seems to be keeping the first batch a little further west. Also like down the base of the trough better although it does seem a little odd 8-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Pickles - you obsess about the placement of snow. Are you planning on driving to the best spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice, NAM seems to be keeping the first batch a little further west. Also like down the base of the trough better although it does seem a little odd 8-16 yeah NAM looks slightly better..but hard to tell what that will translate to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 yeah NAM looks slightly better..but hard to tell what that will translate to. Looks a lot better, JMHO. May fall apart like it does outside its 24 hour range, but this is all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM should be a little further west I think. Also, the weenie band snow is going to need temps to cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like two separate shortwaves on the base of the trough there in LA. I don't think the trend is good still. East with this system still on the NAM IMO, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I was probably wrong with the previous comment about the NAM, but it should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Pickles - you obsess about the placement of snow. Are you planning on driving to the best spot? it's a wx forum and there is a cool meso scale event taking place i want to know where best forcing is setting up and wether that location has decent confidence. i'm not drivin anywhere but i think the event tonite deserves more attention ....i think more posters will be happy bout this round tonite.....like chris m ....codfishblah blah blah over to hubbdave and maybe even the fellas in sterling, ma southbridge and where ever else in rural central mass we got peeps. it's like when i stay'd up to watch the band drop a quick 4-5 inches of snow over S ri /S mass the other nite, i want to learn and i want to know wtf is likely to be going on. but i see a few signs tonite that ....what occurs tonite will actually be better than the near miss coastal that everyone's been focused on. i was actually impressed with some things trending tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 so far I like the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM really never stops precip for central areas once the first band moves in, NAM has light snow all day tomorrow.. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM really never stops precip for central areas once the first band moves in, NAM has light snow all day tomorrow.. interesting I like the outcome, the 8-12 hour period overnight is a bit dubious in the deep south ( I don't think it's strong enough to be honest). We'll see. I think it's just picking up on the s/w in the northern GOM that the RAP has while slowing down the system trying to move through TN. The net result is a negative tilt. It's a much, much better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The biggest change I see is downstream ridging east of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 27 hours out NAM looks more consolidated on one low rather then 2. Perhaps strengthens faster this run with more energy closer to the coast tucked in underneath negative tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 hows that NY state Sw f'n things up this round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Still too far to the east considering the H5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 hows that NY state Sw f'n things up this round Not as bad because we have better downstream ridging which acts to keep the low closer to the coast, although not enough. Maybe the GFS will look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Still too far to the east considering the H5 setup. I don't think we can worry about that until the morning. I like this tonight, I hope other guidance supports the idea of a slower escape of the s/w. Will lead to a more negative tilt. We aren't far off in this solution from a real big storm. The NAM adjusted west pretty significantly and I'd argue it's still too far east based on the fact I think it'll prove to be too weak in the south overnight into Saturday. Typhoon's point apply about the baro zone being too far east in earlier NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Southern shortwave still steals all of the energy from the negatively tilted trough, rather then focusing the energy on the northern stream shortwave. This leads to a more easterly solution. The evolution of the TX shortwave is key in determining the nature of our southern low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 little weenie band already poking into pete's fanny. he's prob got 4" down by now http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ENX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 36h QPF centered on 42 hours shows a pretty nice shift west. Nice. But it's not enough, need to see a stronger s/w exiting the SE coast to get this done, hoping the GFS and company pulls the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM is extremely close to a Blizzard warning criteria for CC and Islands. Just another tick west for the 12z runs tomorrow then we could have something like that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Sky did not really "feel" like snow tonight... maybe in a few hours some Weenies flakes get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Sky did not really "feel" like snow tonight... maybe in a few hours some Weenies flakes get going. It's still torched aloft. Will take closer to 3-4am or so to really cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It's still torched aloft. Will take closer to 3-4am or so to really cool off. And still mostly.clear out. 30F here at the surface, though. Dropping well enough. Tonight is my only really hope though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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