iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 06z NAM through 15 hours already looks better at 5h. Slightly higher heights along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Stronger energy with a less positive tilt, again higher heights along the east through 21 hr, this is going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 6z NAM looking impressive, interesting to see it break with the trend from 18z to 00z. Probably a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 BIG differences hr 27, 5h chart looks greatly improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow. So improved at 36. The 50/50 is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Low already forming off SC coast at 36 hours whereas 0z had this be a later transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Low already forming off SC coast at 36 hours whereas 0z had this be a later transfer Heights much improved out ahead of the system. Should be a good solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Heights much improved out ahead of the system. Should be a good solution Absolutely, 700rh looking very healthy as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Eh, end result is a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Eh, end result is a little better. .75 contour moved north by about 75 miles, CNJ comfortably in .5+ now. I'd say it was a pretty nice improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is ugly, next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is ugly, next to nothing. Yea Mid Atlantic special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DT s map looks good. If you get 3 consider it a win. Gone are the 4 to 8 and 6 to 10. The surface placement is similar on the euro gfs and nam but all 3 dont wana print out more than 25. So 3. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 From 3 models showing warning snow(GFS, GGEM, NAM), to zero. Story of winter 2013, when things can go wrong, they will. NEXT! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 From 3 models showing warning snow(GFS, GGEM, NAM), to zero. Story of winter 2013, when things can go wrong, they will. NEXT! -skisheep That's a pretty amazing thing to be saying after what happened last week for 95% of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Light snow for this to a partly cloudy weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 4km NAM was a good early heads up yesterday of what we would see in the 0Z guidance especially with the Euro. Notice how much better it performed than the regular NAM which had the qpf bombs over us. I was really impressed how much better it was with the blizzard compared to the regular NAM and GFS last week. The 4km and Euro may be the new EE rule in some situations. 18z run on Monday similar to Euro 6z total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I've got fellow mets screaming convective feedback problems again this AM, they may be correct but I'm not buying into it yet. Notice the problem the last 2-3 runs has been the wishy washy and never really consolidating low center til it reaches the Delmarva, there is tons of convective issues through the run, over OK/TX today and then the SE and southern MA the next 24 hours. Some mets feel the model is underdoing the northern low or developing it late as a result, even the 06Z RGEM sort of does the same thing now, not a bad track from any of the models but the precip shield is unusual, this can be correct of course if the low develops late. My view is its not necessarily convective feedback but convective screwing, the activity going on SE of what would eventually be our low is causing it problems getting its act together til late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's a pretty amazing thing to be saying after what happened last week for 95% of the board. Literally every other storm except that one has failed in some way, and this one seems to be no different. Looking at the models at even 4 days out, we would be having a great winter, but somehow, in the 72-84 hours before the event, we loose it. Even last week things went wrong, 5 miles to my west and 5 to my east were in epic banding, I got dryslotted for 2 hours and never got into the amazing stuff. (Sure, 19" is nothing to complain about, but compared to what could have been, and almost was, things did go wrong.) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Literally every other storm except that one has failed in some way, and this one seems to be no different. Looking at the models at even 4 days out, we would be having a great winter, but somehow, in the 72-84 hours before the event, we loose it. Even last week things went wrong, 5 miles to my west and 5 to my east were in epic banding, I got dryslotted for 2 hours and never got into the amazing stuff. (Sure, 19" is nothing to complain about, but compared to what could have been, and almost was, things did go wrong.) -skisheep This still looks like a modest 2-4" storm for most people, not seeing anything less (or more) than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The SREF's are very dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 A caretaker reported she heard 6 reported on the news for Woodbridge, not sure what station she heard it on, but it looked to me to be wrong: i did see Fords, in the same township, reported 8. Other people I know swear they measured 6 in the Iselin area. With drifting it' possible, though there wasn't much wind. I thoguht it looked closer to 10-11 but i didn't measure. I think the reports from Metuchen of close to 11 were closer to the mark. Especially given how the poster measured it.there can be differences close by; in 2006 no one I know saw 28 inches, butthat was the report from Rahway for thatstorm. which is one town over. I am in that area of northern Middlesex County and I got only 6.4 inches - wide variation in amounts in a small radius - because the banding and precip shield was scattered early saturday morning - as of this morning only have about 2 or 3 inches left and can see the grass poking through in spots after today's warmth will be alot of bare spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 New NWS forecast, still too high in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This still looks like a modest 2-4" storm for most people, not seeing anything less (or more) than that. 2-4"? The GFS is flurries here, the EURO is close to nothing(correct if im wrong), and everyone's saying toss the NAM. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am in that area of northern Middlesex County and I got only 6.4 inches - wide variation in amounts in a small radius - because the banding and precip shield was scattered early saturday morning Got 6" here...though some of the heavier bands were east of my area, we were almost all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 New NWS forecast, still too high in my opinion I still think this favors a solution on the north end of much of the guidance. But the fast/progressive flow has killed numerous chances this winter, so this could certainly be another one. Models have been flopping all over the place, so it makes confidence low. Hopefully 12z brings this back north a little-if it stays crushed/suppressed I'll start worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 2-4"? The GFS is flurries here, the EURO is close to nothing(correct if im wrong), and everyone's saying toss the NAM. -skisheep you forgot to add that many areas are going to start as rain - very borderline temps and most of what falls will melt Thursday with temps in the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 09z SREFS look like they ticked a hair north with the 0.1 and 0.5" lines in Southeast NY and Central NJ respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 SREF has a spread to the north. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_042_mslp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 SREF has a spread to the north. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&cycle=09ℑ=sref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_042_mslp.gif That's not a spread to the north, that's a spread with timing. Some members are simply moving the storm more quickly, not surprising given the trend with recent runs to hurry this thing outta here. The issue here is less about the low placement and more about the progressive flow and insufficient time for the system to really explode off shore. Hence, only those to our south will see the qpf maxes, and even those won't be too high with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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