Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The precip gradients with this thing are so tight. Even if the models held their course, I still wouldn't feel comfortable with this. The south shore of LI is almost .5" on the GFS, while SW CT is barely hitting the .1" contour. Edit: This works both ways, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 00z GFS has only 0.25-0.5'' QPF from the city into central NJ whereas the 18z run had us all comfortably in 0.5-0.75''. Will have to wait for future runs to see if this is just a blip or a solid trend. The 18z SLP is 996 at 60 hrs - The 0z SLP looks to be 998 at 54 hrs , they look almost in the same spot , I really wouldnt get hung up on QPF . Those surface maps arent that far off . Its not like the surface was off AC at 18z and at the mouth of the Deleware at 0z . I thnk they r close Thats what im looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS and Nam went towards the Euro which showed a 1-3/ 2-4 inch snowfall. We still have a lot of model runs to go before this forecast is set in stone. Ukie has over .40 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Like I said earlier today, our goal for this event should be 2-4"...anything more is a bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The precip gradients with this thing are so tight. Even if the models held their course, I still wouldn't feel comfortable with this. The south shore of LI is almost .5" on the GFS, while SW CT is barely hitting the .1" contour. Edit: This works both ways, too. The low track is actually good on both models, the band of precip on the NW side though is either late to develop or restricted, would watch to see how that evolves the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DT's first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM and GFS are in excellent agreement; it is interesting that the QPF has an extremely sharp cutoff. This makes forecasting this storm very difficult, it reminds me of a stronger system during February 2011 when NYC got a trace and Redbank NJ goes almost 20". I like to see other models runs to see how true this is, does the forecasted ampertude of the short wave shrink so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 18z SLP is 996 at 60 hrs - The 0z SLP looks to be 998 at 54 hrs , they look almost in the same spot , I really wouldnt get hung up on QPF . Those surface maps arent that far off . Its not like the surface was off AC at 18z and at the mouth of the Deleware at 0z . I thnk they r close Thats what im looking for This is the 00z map 54 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif And this is the 18z map at 60 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif The low is definitely farther south in the 00z run, not by a lot but there was a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did ukie trend north or south? I am just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM and GFS are in excellent agreement; it is interesting that the QPF has an extremely sharp cutoff. This makes forecasting this storm very difficult, it reminds me of a stronger system during February 2011 when NYC got a trace and Redbank NJ goes almost 20". I like to see other models runs to see how true this is, does the forecasted ampertude of the short wave shrink so fast? yeah, you mean Feb 2010...but this is nothing like that...whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah, you mean Feb 2010...but this is nothing like that...whatsoever 2/23/87 might actually be a really good analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z Ukie has about .40 for NYC. It did trend slightly more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did ukie trend north or south? I am just curious. Apparently it had 0.4" liquid into NYC. If around the NAM/GFS is where the consensus is tonight, I would still be fairly encouraged, particularly from around the City south. A lot of times these have last minute bumps north, and colder runs mean potentially higher ratios. The system appearing to enhance as it comes offshore should also be encouraging, since coastal areas may be in a nice band of snow for a few hours. Just hopefully we're done with further trends south. The fast flow and the kicker are always a concern though, this being the crazy progressive-flow winter and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Honestly, I rather have the system go further south and allow for a colder solution. I don't think I could handle losing 0.2 of QPF to rain/mix/slop. I'd be more inclined to take a 31 F surface and 2 inches of snow instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is the 00z map 54 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif And this is the 18z map at 60 hours: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif The low is definitely farther south in the 00z run, not by a lot but there was a shift. In what feet lol just kidding , its minimal 996 vs 998 - and 20 miles , not gona cut QPF in half .. I dont see alot there , now the problem may have been the 18z was just too juiced in which case it makes sense , later runs will sort that out .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice to see the little 1010 mb anticyclone parked over First CT Lake, NH...always want to see one situated to the north as a snowstorm moves up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Our two posters from Woodbridge and Piscataway had 7-9, where did you get this report A caretaker reported she heard 6 reported on the news for Woodbridge, not sure what station she heard it on, but it looked to me to be wrong: i did see Fords, in the same township, reported 8. Other people I know swear they measured 6 in the Iselin area. With drifting it' possible, though there wasn't much wind. I thoguht it looked closer to 10-11 but i didn't measure. I think the reports from Metuchen of close to 11 were closer to the mark. Especially given how the poster measured it.there can be differences close by; in 2006 no one I know saw 28 inches, butthat was the report from Rahway for thatstorm. which is one town over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hmmph. Went to bed thinking we had a storm coming; woke up to find we are now at a small event trending south. I can tell you this, storms in my experience that are south tend not to produce much for my neck of the woods, if at all. Seen some big storms in ACY while i got nothing. Seem tio do better with systems that leave out Ocean county on down, at least with these smaller systems. Maybe the last storm got our hopes up too much and we are forgetting how many whiffs we had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Honestly, I rather have the system go further south and allow for a colder solution. I don't think I could handle losing 0.2 of QPF to rain/mix/slop. I'd be more inclined to take a 31 F surface and 2 inches of snow instead. Agreed. Nothing worse than slop.Plus I am surrounded by naysayers who hate snow; even one met at mt holly hated snow so much he/she used to write things like " some rain will arrive to save the day" ugh.Not sure what to think of this system; been ages since everywhere got a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Euro looks slower and less amplified through 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Euro looks slower and less amplified through 30 hours Oh well, weekend is more important! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro is coming in further south than all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DT's first guess I like Dave's work (he is an acquired taste, lol) a lot - he nailed Sandy, this past storm, and he's looking good for this one, so far. However, he occasionally goofs with his maps like this one. Can't mix the lines and envelopes the way he has. It implies 1-3" between the 1" and 3" lines, which would then imply 3-6" amounts between the 3" line and the red line outlining the 3-6" envelope. Discontinuity. Pretty sure he intended to have the area between the red and dark blue to be 1-3" and the area between the light blue and dark blue to be 0-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro is coming in further south than all the models. How far south are we talking?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's the only model that doesn't show anything. Really weird. The low looks in a good spot but no precip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 South of the 12z run for sure...nothing exciting to see here at all. Meaningful precipitation barely gets to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 i hope this isnt the classic euro bias of being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 i hope this isnt the classic euro bias of being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's the only model that doesn't show anything. Really weird. The low looks in a good spot but no precip at all. It seems all of them showed that tonight, not a bad track at all but they're slow to develop much precip on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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