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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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Factor this in....last night as upton's AFD said...the nam had no idea that a storm would even be coming up the coast ! The GFS had this same idea....now the NAM is going bonkers and the GFS held serve all day and night....

2 days ago the GFS had this storm in Bermuda..please get your facts right..the ONLY model that has held serve for 5 days in a row has been the Euro

I understand....but despite holding serve for 5 days....it still does not make it the final solution as we near closer to the event. Models such as the GFS are still collecting current data and modeling it....and the GFS has had the storm modeled for some time as well. I suspect the euro will shift s and e....we'll see

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I understand....but despite holding serve for 5 days....it still does not make it the final solution as we near closer to the event. Models such as the GFS are still collecting current data and modeling it....and the GFS has had the storm modeled for some time as well. I suspect the euro will shift s and e....we'll see

ok, ill bite, why do u expect it wil?  and dont respond with because the gfs did, that is modelology not meteorology

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Yea lets see if the 0z follows the OP like last night

This is why you go with the Euro. A lesson was learned in February 1983 when the LFM (also not always consistent) cut down on amounts on the February 11th storm at 00Z to about .73". You cannot follow every model run verbatim at this point. Follow the best, the Euro, and look at the radar and hourly observations, that's how you'll really know what's coming!

WX/PT

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Guys....compare the NAM 00 hour sim radar to the current radar....the NAM's depiction is well west of the current....the GFS seems to match up much much betwe

 

I'd agree, the problem though is not at all on initialization, the GFS error likely occurs at that 15-18 hour window when it convectively jumps the center...I think the GFS would otherwise be somewhat like the RGEM if it has not suffered some sort of issue with that southern vort.

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