RU848789 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm doing this soley for the late nighters and leaving it up only for a limited time...but here is the 00z Euro at 78 hours (left) and 84 hours (right). If it verified, slam dunk significant snowstorm for almost the entire area. Thanks, buddy - you rock! Starting to get excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still feels so far away though, 3 days is a long time but the Euro's been consistent and the other models are catching on. I worry about the phasing though, it's a very close call and we have very little wiggle room unlike those further north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm doing this soley for the late nighters and leaving it up only for a limited time...but here is the 00z Euro at 78 hours (left) and 84 hours (right). If it verified, slam dunk significant snowstorm for almost the entire area. eurofeb62012.png This does seem to have a similar evolution and intensity as the Lindsay storm as modeled by the ecm. Its good to have a threat within 60 hours to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is absolutely crazy. The H5 low closes off IN MARYLAND this run! It closed off on top of us at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WOW, Just looked at EURO, much colder, borderline for me in Philly, close call..I have stormvista euro too, earthlight you're more familiar with these graphics. Knowing EURO tendencies etc do you think verbatim Philly goes over to snow quick enough for 6+? On this run it would be close, it really wants to build back the precip as the CCB develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro has 2 inches of qpf for the area. That's over 12 inches of snow. probably a foot and a half as depicted for a large area...ratios start out poor then we get clobbered by the ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 At what hours does the precipitation start on the Euro, 60-66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looking more and more like the 12Z ECMWF EPS Control Run. Just half of the amounts there BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can someone post the qpf for KSLK(again lol), really wanna go upstate but if this solution holds im stayin home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 850s never get above 0 for Philly, though the freezing line doesnt come south of us until 78 hrs, even if thats the case we still get .3-.6 all snow...Question is, how much before that? Congrats to you guys up north though on this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That northern stream vort just dives in hard to capture the storm thanks to the ridge out west coming in stronger. Another trend like this and we get nuked Another trend like this and large section of the Northeast gets nuked, not just this area. If that southern stream impulse slows just a tad (or if the northern stream impulse decides to deepen a bit further west)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 At what hours does the precipitation start on the Euro, 60-66? Yea 60 hrs nothing has fallen, 66 hrs .1-.25 range so sometime between then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 euro starts precip at 66 and it continues past hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro is usually king in these situations especially at this range it's almost unbeatable. I know it has one fluky run every once in a while but it's been fairly consistent with this one. However given the way this winter has gone so far, I'm extremely cautious about what the Euro shows so I'm not going to get excited because I'm not trying to get burned again. We need most of the accurate models showing the Euro solution over the next 1-2 days for this to truly be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When do text graphics come out for the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BOS 2.73 in. QPF....All Snow. As I noted a few days ago, if the Euro verifies, this is a Top 5 event for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If the GFS/UKMET/GGEM cave in towards the ECMWF in the next 36-48 Hours, then this is a locked in solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Next run of the GFS is key. 18z was a hiccup. 00z GFS came around somewhat, but still had the primary holding on too late in the game. The Euro is usually king in these situations especially at this range it's almost unbeatable. I know it has one fluky run every once in a while but it's been fairly consistent with this one. However given the way this winter has gone so far, I'm extremely cautious about what the Euro shows so I'm not going to get excited because I'm not trying to get burned again. We need most of the accurate models showing the Euro solution over the next 1-2 days for this to truly be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I can't say I'm surprised by tonight's EC. With that cold high sitting up there, it was surprising to me that the American models have been as mild as they have been. Also, the northern stream is clearly loaded with energy and the break between this evening's clipper and the next one a little longer/wider--leaving room for the phase-up with our newly invigorated southern stream energy. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That deformation band that sets up over LI is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If the GFS/UKMET/GGEM cave in towards the ECMWF in the next 36-48 Hours, then this is a locked in solution. GGEM showed a really nice track but for some reason, it was warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GGEM showed a really nice track but for some reason, it was warm. Because it wasn't as energetic with the northern stream and didn't have the robust phase that the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If the GFS/UKMET/GGEM cave in towards the ECMWF in the next 36-48 Hours, then this is a locked in solution. so in other words, if all the models agree the night before the storm then it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do we have any analogs for this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do we have any analogs for this setup? The 500mb setup is similar to 4/6/82 overall but its not a strong analog overll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 so in other words, if all the models agree the night before the storm then it's a lock. Exactly. Or at least by 12Z 2013/02/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do we have any analogs for this setup? I've been looking at the 1983 storm, there's some similarities if the 0z euro were to pan out but lets not get ahead of ourselves. That storm didn't bomb out like the euro is suggesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 so in other words, if all the models agree the night before the storm then it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The WU snowfall maps have 17-24" for NYC and 24"-30" for parts of LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Damnnnn. That is nice. I just wish the euro had more support for this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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